NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

[healthraj]

I think the strategy will be live today. I hope to go to Sept 18 event with free puts and calls. Some dumb luck to get both puts and calls to be doubled in 3 days. Let's see how I can maximize the free options.
- till 5700 I will be buyer in calls.
- every resistance after 5700 I will be buyer in puts

OT, What do you mean by Free Puts and Calls? And how can you double both Puts and Calls in 3 days? Only one should be possible at a time

 

[healthraj]

MAX Pain shifted to 5600 today. The Intraday Pivot is at 5716, which could be the Target for today.

Even if there are any Selling opportunities, Do not attempt any Sell today.

As told yesterday, This is Technical pullback, which can go till 5800. The bottom for this Trend is 5320. So positional Options Traders should try and close their positions at 5320+250 = 5570. And Play for Another 250 points from 5570+250 = 5820 or 5320 Once again.

The VIX has dropped by around 8%. At 5570, Try executing the pair 5800CE and 5300PE, both of them are available at around 55. Buy when the VIX is around 26

Closed the 5300 PE with 12 points profit and Hedged again with 5200PE @ 52. Closed 5300 PE it because I am expecting a Turn around @ 5570

So now carrying 5200 PE @ 52 and 5800CE @ 57.

With the current VOLT, the 5200PE-5800CE Debit Spread should be profitable above 5625 SPOT. And If market reaches 5725 today it should fetch 1450 per lot which is around 30 points.

On the downside it would be profitable only below 5425.

Today if it reaches 5725 book 50% on this pair because there are still 15 days left in this expiry and we might get more such opportunities. With the market daily moving 100 points I am thinking of closing even 100%. Anyway let us see the situation today EOD. Tomorrow itself we might see 5820

 

[aimnifty]

When I posted in the morning it was there, Hope when the MAX COI was at 5600-5800. Now the MAX COI is at 5500-5600

Hi Raj,

I am also of the same view as OT. These pivot values are totally out of place. I request you to post screenshot after some important development.

Thanks.

 

[healthraj]

Still With the MAX OI at 5300-5500, it would Take some time for market to goto 5700. You can see that the CE OI at 5500 is 43L and the OI at 5700 is 42.6L. So when the 5700 becomes the MAX you can see the market jumping to Highs. Otherwise it can Go down. So watch the OI Buildup in the Calls.

you can also See the MAX COI @ PE being in 5500 - 8L. So all preparations being done to Take the market to 5700.

 

[healthraj]

Hi Raj,

I am also of the same view as OT. These pivot values are totally out of place. I request you to post screenshot after some important development.

Thanks.

Hi,

Screenshot Why? You don't believe ?. I am also trading and So I will not be able to post the screenshots during market hours. Now you can see 5683 as the Pivot. It is basically because the MAX COI is going all over the places. So wait for the market to settle down. As told in the beginning of this thread, Observe the OAT between 9:15 and 10:15 for the Real Top. The market is not static and you will have to catch the right values.

Market is already at 5600 but the MAX COI is at 5500-5900. For Intraday that does not mean anything. Only MAX COI of 5600-5800 will give you a Pivot of 5700, which means the fight for 5700 is not started. The BULLs are still shorting 5500. When they are done with 5500, they will come and short 5600 and Take positions in 5800.

Basically the Intraday Pivot is the Average of MAX COI @ CE and PE. Fro example if the MAX COI is at 5600-5800, The average would be 5700. But using the COI values I am doing a weighted average and fine tuning to 5725.

 

[aimnifty]

Hi,

Screenshot Why? You don't believe ?. I am also trading and So I will not be able to post the screenshots during market hours. Now you can see 5683 as the Pivot. It is basically because the MAX COI is going all over the places. So wait for the market to settle down. As told in the beginning of this thread, Observe the OAT between 9:15 and 10:15 for the Real Top. The market is not static and you will have to catch the right values.

Market is already at 5600 but the MAX COI is at 5500-5900. For Intraday that does not mean anything. Only MAX COI of 5600-5800 will give you a Pivot of 5700, which means the fight for 5700 is not started. The BULLs are still shorting 5500. When they are done with 5500, they will come and short 5600 and Take positions in 5800.

Basically the Intraday Pivot is the Average of MAX COI @ CE and PE. Fro example if the MAX COI is at 5600-5800, The average would be 5700. But using the COI values I am doing a weighted average and fine tuning to 5725.

Please don't misunderstand. I never meant to disbelieve. In fact I am confused with this tool in this SEPT series only. August series was absolutely correct and that is why I am wondering what is happening in my worksheet.

I will not be spending my time as well if I dont have faith in your interpretation of current market. So I am also watching your comments very closely.

Thanks.

 

[chintan786]

Instead of 5400 PE, I would suggest to go for 5200PE because it would that match the price of 5800CE @ 54. 5200 PE now available at 52. Normally do not put more premium in one leg. It should be more or less same. More so when we are expecting the market to Go UP. So close your 5400PEs and Buy 5200 PEs

Thanks Raj, There are some devlopments internationally which I seems can fizzle out this rally.

1. Russia Sending more warships to Mediterrnian sea.
2. The US Govt. will most probably attack Syria be next week.
3. RBI has already delayed RBI meet, as they wants to see Fed regarding tapering.
4. Due to International dev. crude is still at 115 usd.

we have already seen few days back only when three days of gain wipe out in 1 day and 2 days of gains wipe out those losses. therefore,

at most 5700 I guess nothing more than tht.

I can be wrong also. But definitly crude holds the Key here.

 

[healthraj]

Please don't misunderstand. I never meant to disbelieve. In fact I am confused with this tool in this SEPT series only. August series was absolutely correct and that is why I am wondering what is happening in my worksheet.

I will not be spending my time as well if I dont have faith in your interpretation of current market. So I am also watching your comments very closely.

Thanks.

Hi,

August-13 was more or less Trending. But SEP-13 is very volatile and so Intraday is not very profitable and not working because market moves like crazy and all the Stoplosses are taken. The reason Why I ask to play for Options with 250 points UP/DOWN. So for the time being if the Pivots in OAT is changing every 30 minutes, then it is better not to consider those values.

I think this comes from the doubt that may the OAT tool is not working. I can assure you that the Tool is working and I also use the same tool.

 

[healthraj]

Thanks Raj, There are some devlopments internationally which I seems can fizzle out this rally.

1. Russia Sending more warships to Mediterrnian sea.
2. The US Govt. will most probably attack Syria be next week.
3. RBI has already delayed RBI meet, as they wants to see Fed regarding tapering.
4. Due to International dev. crude is still at 115 usd.

we have already seen few days back only when three days of gain wipe out in 1 day and 2 days of gains wipe out those losses. therefore,

at most 5700 I guess nothing more than tht.

I can be wrong also. But definitly crude holds the Key here.

Chintan,

Agreed. Yes both 5700 and 5400 are possible from 5600. Sorry If I am creating any perception that market will ONLY go UP. Two days back everybody wants to ONLY short. There is a lot of Negative sentiment and everybody was Short and you saw today that the market jumped 3%. In fact in 2 days it has jumped 5%. BANKNIFTY today jumped 8%. so let us play accordingly.

On your point on "at most 5700 I guess nothing more than tht" - Please do not be rigid. Always plan for 5800 also simply because I have been observing that Market always want to take the Full points. So it is either 60 points or 120 points, 250 points or 500 points. So if we go by this logic, from the low of 5320 if you add 500 you will get 5820. So it is very much possible. Worst case have it is as a stoploss but do not discount 5820.

 

[Option.Trader]

How about this for a positional trade.. its 100% risky..but trying to play out the Sept 18th FOMC meeting
Assumptions
- Nifty is in a trading range between 5300-5550.. also indicated by Options data
- Options being bought into heavily by FII's
- Sept 18 event may lead to a break out of the range

Strategy
Execute a time series strangle to be closed by 2 weeks from now.. time series because nifty being volatile does give rise to opportunistic trade
Two legs in the strangle. .you can choose any
- I chose the first leg as 5300PE and had begun accumulating from 2 days.. average was about 75... i got lucky there..
- 2nd leg... was thinking of 5500 or 5600CE... Nifty @ 5360 gave good opportunity to buy... maybe wait for the down turn to play out a bit to approach 5300...
This is a fully risk blown stragtegy...assuming Nifty will break out of the range... ways it may fail

-- breaks out of the range immediately as seen today... then you are left with peanuts on the call side
-- remains in the range.. you still end up with peanuts

Only saving grace.. we still have 2 weeks of trading before the FOMC meeting

Exit...
Strategy if all goes according to plan is have free options on Sept 18th.. i.e you book out half when it doubles and play out sept 18th with free options

I must admit.. i got lucky with 5300PE.. but you never know if call could be proven lucky.. 5700 from 30 could easily go to 60 if rumor on gulf news is just a rumor...Comments/brickbats welcome... but just trying to see if we could play out the range breakout

Buy options, the assumption is that Nifty will break out of 5300-5500 range.
1st leg I took 5300 pe @75
2nd leg I took 5500ce @ 90 today
I got lucky that my put positions already reached my first exit and now I'm carrying free put options to Sept 18 event. But I guess it's a high risk trade for others to initiate now. Any thoughts to still make this workable for others?honestly I didn't expect put to double in a day, some luck

OT, What do you mean by Free Puts and Calls? And how can you double both Puts and Calls in 3 days? Only one should be possible at a time

The strategy was laid out based on your query on a positional trade.. only advantage i had was, when Nifty was at 5550 4 days back before the fall, i had started accumulating 5300PE @75... i squared off 50% and essentially sitting on free puts of 5300... i said on the day of the fall that i would take 5500CE @90... i was asking suggestion from you for others, but somehow you missed it... so today i came out half of 5500Ce @ 190.. so essentially my 5300PE and 5500CE are free of investment.. now waiting for market to move 250 points from here... i was playing for the range breakout