NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

[healthraj]

I modified your formula to take all the strike levels and that is when I got 5800. Ill post the values for levels at end of day so that you can recheck. I guess the sensitivity increased after strike levels of nifty came in

Yes you are right. Even the 5000PE is having 20L of OI. 5400Pe is having 41L.

With 5800 as the MAX Pain Hope we will get a positional SELL Trade around 6050 fro 250 points towards 5800. The Stoploss can be 6080, which will also help those people having Long Calls. Please do not miss this opportunity in the next week.

Results starting with INFY on 11-Oct-13 and the Debt Ceiling Drama on 17-18-Oct.

Can anybody guess how NIFTY will play? For Now the Range seems to be 5700-6100. But the Bottom of the Range can goto 5400 also looking at the OI at 5400PE. The Difference between 5400 and 5700 is just 3.5 Lakhs. Anyways 5400 is still far away.

But INFY Seems to be the Culprit with the MAX OI changing from 2600-3100 to 2600-3500. Can INFY give a Surprise and take the Market up to say 6200/6300 once again?

So my guess NIFTY is as follows ?

07-Oct to 10-Oct - Tight Range - Consolidation and Kill all the Premiums - Make the Retail Traders feel the pain...
11-Oct - When everybody is expecting to SELL, Take the market UP to 6100 on Friday
14-Oct - Another 50 points up to 6150.
15-Oct to 18-Oct - Consolidation and Kill the Premiums.
21-Oct to 31-Oct - Take the market down to 5700 (Or a Spike towards 5400 - Just a Cheat) and Expire around 5800

Purely my prediction.

Hope the US debt Ceiling drama starts on 18-Oct ? Can anybody confirm this?

For Retail Traders, my opinion would be to stay away from market from 07-Oct to 10-Oct and Play for 11-Oct.
Then Look to Take a Short Trade around MAX CE OI (around 6100/6200 to 5700)

 

[VJAY]

Dear Raj,
Whats the correct MAX PAIN now?tool still showing 5900

 

[healthraj]

Dear Raj,
Whats the correct MAX PAIN now?tool still showing 5900

MAX Pain is at 5800. Let us anyway take an average as 5850. So play with 5850.

 

[appajib]

Yes you are right. Even the 5000PE is having 20L of OI. 5400Pe is having 41L.

With 5800 as the MAX Pain Hope we will get a positional SELL Trade around 6050 fro 250 points towards 5800. The Stoploss can be 6080, which will also help those people having Long Calls. Please do not miss this opportunity in the next week.

Results starting with INFY on 11-Oct-13 and the Debt Ceiling Drama on 17-18-Oct.

Can anybody guess how NIFTY will play? For Now the Range seems to be 5700-6100. But the Bottom of the Range can goto 5400 also looking at the OI at 5400PE. The Difference between 5400 and 5700 is just 3.5 Lakhs. Anyways 5400 is still far away.


But INFY Seems to be the Culprit with the MAX OI changing from 2600-3100 to 2600-3500. Can INFY give a Surprise and take the Market up to say 6200/6300 once again?

So my guess NIFTY is as follows ?

07-Oct to 10-Oct - Tight Range - Consolidation and Kill all the Premiums - Make the Retail Traders feel the pain...
11-Oct - When everybody is expecting to SELL, Take the market UP to 6100 on Friday
14-Oct - Another 50 points up to 6150.
15-Oct to 18-Oct - Consolidation and Kill the Premiums.
21-Oct to 31-Oct - Take the market down to 5700 (Or a Spike towards 5400 - Just a Cheat) and Expire around 5800

Purely my prediction.

Hope the US debt Ceiling drama starts on 18-Oct ? Can anybody confirm this?

For Retail Traders, my opinion would be to stay away from market from 07-Oct to 10-Oct and Play for 11-Oct.
Then Look to Take a Short Trade around MAX CE OI (around 6100/6200 to 5700)

Raj bhai, this is an excellent prediction.I have two doubts.
1.Does nifty touches 5800 before 11 OCT
2.Is it the right time to buy INFY debit spreads, if yes which strikes are suitable

 

[Gandhar.]

healthraj can we trade infy results using max pain ?
has any1 done it before what strategy should be used to trade the results

 

[anup0212]

Yes you are right. Even the 5000PE is having 20L of OI. 5400Pe is having 41L.

With 5800 as the MAX Pain Hope we will get a positional SELL Trade around 6050 fro 250 points towards 5800. The Stoploss can be 6080, which will also help those people having Long Calls. Please do not miss this opportunity in the next week.

Results starting with INFY on 11-Oct-13 and the Debt Ceiling Drama on 17-18-Oct.

Can anybody guess how NIFTY will play? For Now the Range seems to be 5700-6100. But the Bottom of the Range can goto 5400 also looking at the OI at 5400PE. The Difference between 5400 and 5700 is just 3.5 Lakhs. Anyways 5400 is still far away.

But INFY Seems to be the Culprit with the MAX OI changing from 2600-3100 to 2600-3500. Can INFY give a Surprise and take the Market up to say 6200/6300 once again?

So my guess NIFTY is as follows ?

07-Oct to 10-Oct - Tight Range - Consolidation and Kill all the Premiums - Make the Retail Traders feel the pain...
11-Oct - When everybody is expecting to SELL, Take the market UP to 6100 on Friday
14-Oct - Another 50 points up to 6150.
15-Oct to 18-Oct - Consolidation and Kill the Premiums.
21-Oct to 31-Oct - Take the market down to 5700 (Or a Spike towards 5400 - Just a Cheat) and Expire around 5800

Purely my prediction.

Hope the US debt Ceiling drama starts on 18-Oct ? Can anybody confirm this?

For Retail Traders, my opinion would be to stay away from market from 07-Oct to 10-Oct and Play for 11-Oct.
Then Look to Take a Short Trade around MAX CE OI (around 6100/6200 to 5700)

Hey Raj,

I too have a view of market touching new high before 17 oct and this has something to do with US shutdown, my guess is most of business in US need to put money for work and if you observe yesterday TAIPEI was trading 145+ which I have never seen earlier , to me some sort of game for premium to push the market high is going on and due to this displacement in premium is also visible as other day "toocool" was pointing out so I think we might see some surprises and some jumps here and there and finally we might move to 5500 lvl in this expiry , not sure but guessing.

So according to me

07-Oct to 10-Oct - Consolidation to move further may be 50 points.

11-Oct - another 50 points to 6050 to 6080 lvl
14-Oct - nothing imp may be flat.
15-Oct to 18-Oct - New High .:thumb:
21-Oct to 31-Oct - Back to 5400 or 5520 lvl , to me this is where things will turn ugly.

 

[toocool]

Hey Raj,

I too have a view of market touching new high before 17 oct and this has something to do with US shutdown, my guess is most of business in US need to put money for work and if you observe yesterday TAIPEI was trading 145+ which I have never seen earlier , to me some sort of game for premium to push the market high is going on and due to this displacement in premium is also visible as other day "toocool" was pointing out so I think we might see some surprises and some jumps here and there and finally we might move to 5500 lvl in this expiry , not sure but guessing.

So according to me

07-Oct to 10-Oct - Consolidation to move further may be 50 points.

11-Oct - another 50 points to 6050 to 6080 lvl
14-Oct - nothing imp may be flat.
15-Oct to 18-Oct - New High .:thumb:
21-Oct to 31-Oct - Back to 5400 or 5520 lvl , to me this is where things will turn ugly.

Bro

I generally avoid all kind of news and data points other than data of charts, it's trend and it's resistance......... I think all I had said was that there its the price levels of the nifty at which certain kind of buying or selling or change in momentum takes place and for me it has nothing to do with the current premium of the future.

For example nifty fell to 5700 spot even then the premium didn't shrink too much, yes it shrinked a bit but that was due to the bearish move of the markets, how can the premium on the futures decide the reason for buying and selling, this whole idea is flawed in my understanding, it means that the whole market is almost 100% rigged, and there is no meaning of techinical analysis then, no trend line, no pattern, no nothing is natural in the markets?

This theory also assumes that fii are the only power in the trading universe all other entities including big local banks, DII and all other companies just have local sarkari babus at their disposal and they are at mercy of fii only

FII are the only one's having mba degree holders from Oxford and Yale Universities and all other entity are from sarkari schools and colleges

Sorry I am not gonna believe that

 

[healthraj]

healthraj can we trade infy results using max pain ?
has any1 done it before what strategy should be used to trade the results

I have not tried. Please try and let us know if it works. Theoretically whether it is Stock or Index it is all same and so it should work

 

[Option.Trader]

Yes you are right. Even the 5000PE is having 20L of OI. 5400Pe is having 41L.

With 5800 as the MAX Pain Hope we will get a positional SELL Trade around 6050 fro 250 points towards 5800. The Stoploss can be 6080, which will also help those people having Long Calls. Please do not miss this opportunity in the next week.


Hope the US debt Ceiling drama starts on 18-Oct ? Can anybody confirm this?

Yep, Max pain still stands at 5800.. Let me know if you want the calculation sheet image.
!8-Oct is a non event for Debt ceiling.. the republicans (opposition) have already agreed to not stall raising the debt limit.. once bitten twice shy

 

[Option.Trader]

MAX Pain is at 5800. Let us anyway take an average as 5850. So play with 5850.

I don't think Max pain theory works so early in the month. Where is pain if people can still hold to expiry. Also it would mean that for every 250 points nifty would have to retrace. On the other hand during expiry there is a rush to book profits and eat premiums, hence max pain sounds reasonable.
Also last time nifty rallied, Max pain changed from 5800 to 5900 when nifty reached 6050, so not sure if taking puts at 6050 would work. Technically beyond 5970 is smooth sailing till 6100. Just my 2re on this