NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

[healthraj]

SOLD INFY 2700-3500 Pair for Around 85.

The VOLT went down and now trading at 45 and a clear profit of 40 points

 

[prabhsingh]

infy flat

I think with passage of time Infy and Nifty might pick up as day progresses because both of them are in Overbought zone hence after couple of mins progress can happen on upside.

 

[Rish]

I feel it is good Opportunity as per system it is buy, last 3 results, made good money in infy (all trades are one side), so, taking risk on profit, no panic. All in the game.........

Cheers....:thumb::thumb::thumb:

Still holding Infy Call Target is 185.90 or S/l is 43.00. Let us see......

 

[healthraj]

Whatever may be the INFY result, Do start your trading Early tomorrow. With the World markets looking Green, Tomorrow might be a GAP UP and If INFY results are Good NIFTY might sustain the HIGHs, Otherwise the SELL OFF might start in the opening. Remember 6100 is NIFTY Resistance and it might be met tomorrow in the Opening through GAP UP. I hope INFY results would be FLAT and INFY might not move beyond 3200. INFY has moved from 2200 to 3200. Just my opinion on INFY. So if there is a GAP UP INFY also might meet the Target of 3200

People should be stunned on seeing how the market is behaving right now. But you would have seen NF opening exactly at 6141 and fallen by more than 60 points. That is how the MAX OI and MAX Pain works.

 

[tempest]

Yes you are right. Even the 5000PE is having 20L of OI. 5400Pe is having 41L.

With 5800 as the MAX Pain Hope we will get a positional SELL Trade around 6050 fro 250 points towards 5800. The Stoploss can be 6080, which will also help those people having Long Calls. Please do not miss this opportunity in the next week.

Results starting with INFY on 11-Oct-13 and the Debt Ceiling Drama on 17-18-Oct.

Can anybody guess how NIFTY will play? For Now the Range seems to be 5700-6100. But the Bottom of the Range can goto 5400 also looking at the OI at 5400PE. The Difference between 5400 and 5700 is just 3.5 Lakhs. Anyways 5400 is still far away.

But INFY Seems to be the Culprit with the MAX OI changing from 2600-3100 to 2600-3500. Can INFY give a Surprise and take the Market up to say 6200/6300 once again?

So my guess NIFTY is as follows ?

07-Oct to 10-Oct - Tight Range - Consolidation and Kill all the Premiums - Make the Retail Traders feel the pain...
11-Oct - When everybody is expecting to SELL, Take the market UP to 6100 on Friday
14-Oct - Another 50 points up to 6150.
15-Oct to 18-Oct - Consolidation and Kill the Premiums.
21-Oct to 31-Oct - Take the market down to 5700 (Or a Spike towards 5400 - Just a Cheat) and Expire around 5800

Purely my prediction.

Hope the US debt Ceiling drama starts on 18-Oct ? Can anybody confirm this?

For Retail Traders, my opinion would be to stay away from market from 07-Oct to 10-Oct and Play for 11-Oct.
Then Look to Take a Short Trade around MAX CE OI (around 6100/6200 to 5700)

Raj - Looks like your option reading is paying off :thumb:
Good stuff. Keep it up

 

[Option.Trader]

People should be stunned on seeing how the market is behaving right now. But you would have seen NF opening exactly at 6141 and fallen by more than 60 points. That is how the MAX OI and MAX Pain works.

Not sure on this though... Option Pain is Spot prices.. and 6141 is futures... by the past experience, i thought the trade for Max pain lies in Spot levels and not in Futures... so the trade to 6141 in spot is still on

 

[Cubt]

Closed options with huuuuuuge loss n holding the futures. Did exactly opposite of my signature. This trade gonna have a big impact...hmmm...

 

[TraderRavi]

Closed options with huuuuuuge loss n holding the futures. Did exactly opposite of my signature. This trade gonna have a big impact...hmmm...

maybe buying strangle was not a gud choice considering high IV.

 

[healthraj]

Not sure on this though... Option Pain is Spot prices.. and 6141 is futures... by the past experience, i thought the trade for Max pain lies in Spot levels and not in Futures... so the trade to 6141 in spot is still on

No I calculated 240 points from MAX Pain 5900+240 = 6140. The MAX OI is at 6100.

 

[healthraj]

The VOLT went down and now trading at 45 and a clear profit of 40 points

The INFY VOLT is now down to its original Levels to 30%. The 2700-3500 down from 85 to 23 - 62 points profit. Closing the Trade.
At this Level People can buy Debit Spread of 3100-3500. MAX Pain is at 3100. MAX CE @ 3500. INFY around 3300. So 200 points on either side should give the profit.

Wait for some more time to Get the Clear signal. Right now as per the Price movement the BUY / SELL range is very high. BUY ABOVE 3325 and SELL BELOW 3090. This range should definitely come down