NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

How do you use OAT tool?

  • For Intraday Naked Options trading

    Votes: 58 37.7%
  • For Intraday Pair trading of Options

    Votes: 27 17.5%
  • For Intraday Futures trading

    Votes: 18 11.7%
  • For Positional Naked Options trading

    Votes: 35 22.7%
  • For Positional Pair trading of options

    Votes: 29 18.8%
  • For Positional Futures trading

    Votes: 11 7.1%
  • To trade in Cash market

    Votes: 13 8.4%
  • Overall trading has improved with OAT

    Votes: 27 17.5%
  • Understanding of Options has improved with OAT

    Votes: 57 37.0%

  • Total voters
    154
  • Poll closed .

healthraj

Well-Known Member
NIFTY as per OAT is Bearish.

As per Price movement it is in FLAG. But the FLAG Range is huge and could be good for Range Traders. The Range is 6000 to 6105. So Buy above 6105 and Sell below 6000. Probably this Range should condense in some time and create an opportunity for FLOW traders. But going by the MAX OI @ 6100, it would be a Sell around 6100-6150 for Target of 5900 or Lower - Positional. For Intraday the Direction is not clear
 
maybe buying strangle was not a gud choice considering high IV.
Yeah..with only few minutes left when i about to write options then realizing not having enough margin, i should have opted out of the trade instead of buying options with the money i had. :mad::mad:

Its okay.. part of business blunder. :annoyed:

Will continue to stick to what i do best. Trading Nifty Futures Positional. Not in a hurry to recover my loss. Let me stick to my proper position size and continue to trade. Let it take months/years to recover my loss but i need ensure that i stay in this business for long term. :thumb:
 

healthraj

Well-Known Member
Has MAX PAIN changed to 5920 and hence as per your logic, should market touch 6100 (MAX OI) or test MAX PAIN ?
The MAX Pain could be either 5850, 5900 or 5950. It could not be at 5920.
Yes if MAX OI does not change to higher than 6100, then it would act as the Resistance and it would be a SELL. In the morning the market opened at 6105 and it crashed to 6047 and now trading at 6080. But you have to be careful because the Largest COI is at 6200 - 10L. So market might want to Test 6200NF
 

healthraj

Well-Known Member
Yes you are right. Even the 5000PE is having 20L of OI. 5400Pe is having 41L.

With 5800 as the MAX Pain Hope we will get a positional SELL Trade around 6050 fro 250 points towards 5800. The Stoploss can be 6080, which will also help those people having Long Calls. Please do not miss this opportunity in the next week.

Results starting with INFY on 11-Oct-13 and the Debt Ceiling Drama on 17-18-Oct.

Can anybody guess how NIFTY will play? For Now the Range seems to be 5700-6100. But the Bottom of the Range can goto 5400 also looking at the OI at 5400PE. The Difference between 5400 and 5700 is just 3.5 Lakhs. Anyways 5400 is still far away.

But INFY Seems to be the Culprit with the MAX OI changing from 2600-3100 to 2600-3500. Can INFY give a Surprise and take the Market up to say 6200/6300 once again?

So my guess NIFTY is as follows ?

07-Oct to 10-Oct - Tight Range - Consolidation and Kill all the Premiums - Make the Retail Traders feel the pain...
11-Oct - When everybody is expecting to SELL, Take the market UP to 6100 on Friday
14-Oct - Another 50 points up to 6150.
15-Oct to 18-Oct - Consolidation and Kill the Premiums.
21-Oct to 31-Oct - Take the market down to 5700 (Or a Spike towards 5400 - Just a Cheat) and Expire around 5800

Purely my prediction.

Hope the US debt Ceiling drama starts on 18-Oct ? Can anybody confirm this?

For Retail Traders, my opinion would be to stay away from market from 07-Oct to 10-Oct and Play for 11-Oct.
Then Look to Take a Short Trade around MAX CE OI (around 6100/6200 to 5700)
Yes the Prediction did work, especially on the highlighted part. :confused: I did feel that pain and even wanted to quit trading. So far it has worked. So let us see if the market goes to 6140/50. That would complete this Rally and market can happily go Down. So those who are confident can Buy some Naked puts now. Have 50% of your Option capital to Buy around 6140. But 6140 is not very certain. The market always want to create and expectation and cheat :).

I did mention For Retail Traders, my opinion would be to stay away from market from 07-Oct to 10-Oct and Play for 11-Oct. But I myself did not follow that and Deeply FELT the Pain
 
Last edited:

Similar threads