NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

[premkumartalreja]

Are you doing both in the money positions or its a typo ?

Freinds I have decided to short 3200 Put and 3700 Call with an inflow of 80.

Reason is the ITM probability of 3200 Put and 3700 is 22 % and will give me a levarage of +- 10 %.

Lower BEP is 3120 and Upper BEP is 3780.

For Infosys last three quarters have had its own set of fireworks so people are expecting the implied volatilities and the risk premiums on the Options at least to go up which are not up so much. Somewhere there is a feeling as well as the option prices are indicating the fact that we might not see a lot of activity in terms of price action. And the same view is articulated into this strategy.


Let me know your thoughts

 

[premkumartalreja]

Freinds I have decided to short 3200 Put and 3700 Call with an inflow of 80.

Reason is the ITM probability of 3200 Put and 3700 is 22 % and will give me a levarage of +- 10 %.

Lower BEP is 3120 and Upper BEP is 3780.

For Infosys last three quarters have had its own set of fireworks so people are expecting the implied volatilities and the risk premiums on the Options at least to go up which are not up so much. Somewhere there is a feeling as well as the option prices are indicating the fact that we might not see a lot of activity in terms of price action. And the same view is articulated into this strategy.


Let me know your thoughts

Last quarter, traders went into Infosys numbers with the options pricing a 13 percent move on either direction. Brave option writers would have made a lot of money while the straddle or strangle buyers would have lost out. The traders have learnt their lesson and this time around, the options are much cheaper. Picture this: Last time the combined premium of 3000 Call and Put was Rs 400. This time, despite the stock being at 3400, the combined premium of 3400 Call and Put is around 35 percent lower at Rs 265. So if someone has bought both the Call and Put, they just need a move of 6 percent to be profitable. What is that telling you about the numbers? The sense one gets looking at the data this time is that the stock may not collapse even if the numbers miss estimates. That’s because the market now has high hopes since NR Narayana Murthy’s return and is not willing to see Infosys trade below teens in terms of price multiple. On the other hand, if the numbers do meet expectations or deliver a marginal positive surprise, there is good chance of stock moving a move towards 3800, thereby trimming some valuation gap between itself and TCS .

 

[premkumartalreja]

INFY Change in OI Clearly shows that the downside is limited as the Puts ( 3400 - 3000 ) have been written with good confidence. On the other hand the calls have been written aggressively only at 3800.

INFY is surely going up after the results. I am planning to short 2 Puts and 1 call. Will decide later today

 

[funkyvaib]

Premji - Quick question on this tool. To refresh the data, I've to close and open it again everytime. Is there any other way to refresh the data in this file?

Thanks

Premji - if you may let me know on this, would be grateful.

 

[premkumartalreja]

Premji - if you may let me know on this, would be grateful.

Go to Data - refresh all for manual update
or go to data - connection - properties - refresh every and decide the interval for auto update

 

[premkumartalreja]

Looking at the Max pain chart. The Market makers would want INFY to be around 3500 or go up since the pain on the up side is more.

INFY is sure to go up after resuts

View attachment 19455

 

[singlap]

Prem , If you go purely by options data, in previous quarter IV of 60 to 80 was seen just before the results day which is just in 40s this time. Now even this 40 is high seeing that overall IV of market is in the range of 13-14. when last time IV was high, market was also at an IV of 25 +. So my take is if we sell a combo of 3200/3700 or 3100/3800 , even if stock moves up /down by 300 points, still seller will make money as from tomorrow onwards we can expect infy IVs to be in the range of 25.

So i go with your previous post of selling combos of 3100/3800 or 3200/3700.

 

[The Disciplined Trader]

INFY Change in OI Clearly shows that the downside is limited as the Puts ( 3400 - 3000 ) have been written with good confidence. On the other hand the calls have been written aggressively only at 3800.

INFY is surely going up after the results. I am planning to short 2 Puts and 1 call. Will decide later today

Looking at the Max pain chart. The Market makers would want INFY to be around 3500 or go up since the pain on the up side is more.

INFY is sure to go up after resuts

View attachment 19455

if u dont mind can u tell me where i have to get this excel sheets. i am checking on nse website for oi change and its time consuming..

 

[premkumartalreja]

Sold 1 Lot 3200 Put @ 40
Sold 1 Lot 3700 Call @ 38.10

Upper BEP : 3140 ( -9.21 %)
Lower BEP : 3820 (10.45 % )

INFY 3800 Probability 13.76 %
INFY 3100 Probabaility 12.16 %

So we are within 1 Standard Diviation :clap:

 

[funkyvaib]

sold 3700 CE infy @40.