NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

How do you use OAT tool?

  • For Intraday Naked Options trading

    Votes: 58 37.7%
  • For Intraday Pair trading of Options

    Votes: 27 17.5%
  • For Intraday Futures trading

    Votes: 18 11.7%
  • For Positional Naked Options trading

    Votes: 35 22.7%
  • For Positional Pair trading of options

    Votes: 29 18.8%
  • For Positional Futures trading

    Votes: 11 7.1%
  • To trade in Cash market

    Votes: 13 8.4%
  • Overall trading has improved with OAT

    Votes: 27 17.5%
  • Understanding of Options has improved with OAT

    Votes: 57 37.0%

  • Total voters
    154
  • Poll closed .

amitrandive

Well-Known Member
I have summarized the reasons for the strategy below

I had decided to short 3200 Put and 3700 Call with an inflow of 80.

Reason is the ITM probability of 3200 Put and 3700 is 22 % and will give me a levarage of +- 10 %.

Lower BEP is 3120 and Upper BEP is 3780.

For Infosys last three quarters have had its own set of fireworks so people are expecting the implied volatilities and the risk premiums on the Options at least to go up which are not up so much. Somewhere there is a feeling as well as the option prices are indicating the fact that we might not see a lot of activity in terms of price action. And the same view is articulated into this strategy.

Last quarter, traders went into Infosys numbers with the options pricing a 13 percent move on either direction. Brave option writers would have made a lot of money while the straddle or strangle buyers would have lost out. The traders have learnt their lesson and this time around, the options are much cheaper. Picture this: Last time the combined premium of 3000 Call and Put was Rs 400. This time, despite the stock being at 3400, the combined premium of 3400 Call and Put is around 35 percent lower at Rs 265. So if someone has bought both the Call and Put, they just need a move of 6 percent to be profitable. What is that telling you about the numbers? The sense one gets looking at the data this time is that the stock may not collapse even if the numbers miss estimates. That’s because the market now has high hopes since NR Narayana Murthy’s return and is not willing to see Infosys trade below teens in terms of price multiple. On the other hand, if the numbers do meet expectations or deliver a marginal positive surprise, there is good chance of stock moving a move towards 3800, thereby trimming some valuation gap between itself and TCS .

INFY Change in OI Clearly shows that the downside is limited as the Puts ( 3400 - 3000 ) have been written with good confidence. On the other hand the calls have been written aggressively only at 3800.

INFY is surely going up after the results.


Looking at the Max pain chart. The Market makers would want INFY to be around 3500 or go up since the pain on the up side is more.


INFY is sure to go up after resuts

INFY 3800 Probability 13.76 %
INFY 3100 Probabaility 12.16 %

So we are within 1 Standard Diviation :p
premkumartalreja

Sir , thanks for taking the time out and explaining this in so much detail and that too so quickly !!!
:clap::clap::clap:
 

healthraj

Well-Known Member
My View on NIFTY and INFY before INFY results on tomorrow

NIFTY :
As per OAT the Range has moved from 6300-6500 last week to 6000-6300.

In the lower timeframe the bottom could be 6150.
In the hourly charts the bottom could be 6080.
In the Daily charts the support is at 6140.

The VOLT indicates Selling Puts and Buying Calls.

INFY:

The Range as per OAT is 3100-3800 and right now Trading near the MAX Pain of 3500.



The Historic FOVOLT is at 23% and Average IV for Calls and Puts are around 37%, which is roughly double compared the FOVOLT. So the Strategy would be to SELL the pair 3300-3800 Trading now around 82.
My view is that the current IV still High and IV might come down after the Results.

As per Price Action,

In daily charts the bias is on the UP side with the support at 3370, 3454 and Resistance at 3621 and 3705. Pivot at 3540.

The Daily Support and Resistance also supports the Credit Spread of 3300-3800 Pair
INFY 3300-3800 Pair now trading at 11.2 with 70 points profit.
INFY IV has come down to an average of 20% from 37%.

Enjoy those who traded.

NIFTY also Tested the support of daily support 6140/50 and bounced back this morning.
 

prabhsingh

Well-Known Member
dear sir..can u explain the logic behind this..its already gone down today too...also if iip is bad it will go down also more
Yes completely agree but being a positional trader its best to average out such liquid stocks which are going to rise once such downfall wave has completed.I wont rule out more fall in L&T but i will take this opportunity to grab more.

I have never been disappointed on averaging my stocks and they have given very handsome profits at the end.My target period is for 2-3 month and i am sure in coming weeks it is going to give much much heafty profit.Please note L&T is just one of the stock.Recommendation that i gave for IDFC has given excellent profit and i am making use of that profit to re-invest in L&T.

I will post some charts for L&T so watch this space.
 
Yes completely agree but being a positional trader its best to average out such liquid stocks which are going to rise once such downfall wave has completed.I wont rule out more fall in L&T but i will take this opportunity to grab more.

I have never been disappointed on averaging my stocks and they have given very handsome profits at the end.My target period is for 2-3 month and i am sure in coming weeks it is going to give much much heafty profit.Please note L&T is just one of the stock.Recommendation that i gave for IDFC has given excellent profit and i am making use of that profit to re-invest in L&T.

I will post some charts for L&T so watch this space.
hai sir..thank u for explnation...do post the chartings. by the way if u hold for two three months are you not buying options? if yes what expiry? feb mar LT options are very inliquid
 

DanPickUp

Well-Known Member
Yes completely agree but being a positional trader its best to average out such liquid stocks which are going to rise once such downfall wave has completed.I wont rule out more fall in L&T but i will take this opportunity to grab more.

I have never been disappointed on averaging my stocks and they have given very handsome profits at the end.My target period is for 2-3 month and i am sure in coming weeks it is going to give much much heafty profit.Please note L&T is just one of the stock.Recommendation that i gave for IDFC has given excellent profit and i am making use of that profit to re-invest in L&T.

I will post some charts for L&T so watch this space.
I do request members here to never average any loss trades. Averaging is good for big money and hedge fund players, as they have enough money to stand such moves, but small traders do not have that possibility. So do not follow such crap in case you are a one lot trader. If you are a big boy, then let us show from that member what performance he made in the past with such kind of averaging. Take care and have a nice weekend / DanPickUp :)
 

prabhsingh

Well-Known Member
There seems to be good rally coming on the way for NTPC.Altogether i feel new Wave have already stated from 129 SPOT levels onwards.Hence, if in coming days if NTPC comes close to 130 levels then its a BUY with stop loss at 122.This chart will become invalid if stop loss gets hit i.e 122 is broken.

Chart given below



If anybody feels more can be contributed then please do so by way of charts specially seniors and experienced traders.Plz do contribute.
 
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prabhsingh

Well-Known Member
I do request members here to never average any loss trades. Averaging is good for big money and hedge fund players, as they have enough money to stand such moves, but small traders do not have that possibility. So do not follow such crap in case you are a one lot trader. If you are a big boy, then let us show from that member what performance he made in the past with such kind of averaging. Take care and have a nice weekend / DanPickUp :)
I will take this in a more constructive way and will contribute as and when needed but its my one of the favourite stock but still thanks for advice.
 
There seems to be good rally coming on the way for NTPC.Altogether i feel new Wave have already stated from 129 SPOT levels onwards.Hence, if in coming days if NTPC comes close to 130 levels then its a BUY with stop loss at 129.This chart will become invalid if stop loss gets hit i.e 129 is broken.

Chart given below



If anybody feels more can be contributed then please do so by way of charts specially seniors and experienced traders.Plz do contribute.
Dear sir..can u answer my question

if u hold for two three months are you not buying options? if yes what expiry? feb mar LT options are very inliquid...

can u post same charts for LT
 

prabhsingh

Well-Known Member
I am not that much experienced in options my friend.I take positoins either in Futures or Cash market.Hence i am not the right person to answer your option query.As far as LT charts are concerned,kindly provide me some more time for something concrete to show.
 

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