NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

[timepass]

Quite day as expected.
MAX OI @ 7500-7700
MAX COI @ 7500-7600.

NIFTY Futures Pivot @ 7656. So may there would be a Quick Rally to 60 points may be later in the day or tomorrow.

I am holding two strategies

JUN-14 Series. Sold 7650CE and Bought 7600CE - Loss of 2 points - Probably if there is a quick rally of 30/50 points - Will close this position.
JUL-14 Series. SOLD the Pair 7300PE-8000CE - With profit of 22 points - Will close it If I get 25/30 points.

Options Chain MAX PAIN has shifted from 7500 to 7550. It is still not at 7600 that I am expecting. When the MAX Pain shifts to 7600, probably we will see some action

BNF also please.

 

[healthraj]

bro how do u calculate daily nifty futures pivot.... which terms r u taking in calculation...
thanks in advance

Please see my post 4992. The Trendline that I have explained is the Pivot line.

 

[healthraj]

BNF also please.

BNF MAX OI @ 15000-16000
COI @ 15100-15500.

Going by my observation that Index / Stock Expires near the Daily Trend / Pivot line, I would expect BNF to expire around 15399. The Pivot has been steadily coming daown. Two days back it was 15477, yesterday it was 15433. Today it is 15399. So may be we can expect around 15350 tomorrow

Options MAX Pain is at 15200. I would expect around 15350...

In LTF there is a FLAG formation and the Support at 15240 SPOT.
In hourly charts, the Pivot and Minor Trend support at 15200 SPOT.

So it would be a BUY around 15240/200 for 15300 and 15400.

Or if we get 15350 First, then it would be a SELL around 15350.

 

[healthraj]

Quite day as expected.
MAX OI @ 7500-7700
MAX COI @ 7500-7600.

NIFTY Futures Pivot @ 7656. So may there would be a Quick Rally to 60 points may be later in the day or tomorrow.

I am holding two strategies

JUN-14 Series. Sold 7650CE and Bought 7600CE - Loss of 2 points - Probably if there is a quick rally of 30/50 points - Will close this position.
JUL-14 Series. SOLD the Pair 7300PE-8000CE - With profit of 22 points - Will close it If I get 25/30 points.

Options Chain MAX PAIN has shifted from 7500 to 7550. It is still not at 7600 that I am expecting. When the MAX Pain shifts to 7600, probably we will see some action

Closed the 7300PE-8000CE with 26 points

 

[lemondew]

Super raj,

Bang on. Indeed it was a quiet day.

NIFTY made high 7593 and made exact low of 7540. I am not sure how many survived the onslaught. Now UP again to 7585 levels...

Our Target is for NIFTY to Expire around 7630 Futures Levels. Today Already made a high of 7616. So another 16 points only. So most probaly tomorrow it will be another FLAT day.

So Next two Days we cannot expect any BIG movement . The Option Writers will be Busy tomorrow and Day after eating premiums. Those who are Long better to Book profits now

 

[vssoma]

Dear Raj bro

can you provide the earlier excel file from where we can calculate last 80 candlestick closing value, we dont want to be super rich only rich will suffice our need.:lol::lol::lol:

Sorry dear friend. I have been told my many people in this forum that, that would be a foolish act from my side to share my trading system. This tool is based on my five years of hardwork and observation and fine tuning. Even though I have not shared my last version, which is basically giving the levels, I have pretty much shared everything else in the forum. So the last version is for myself. Plus I have not modified my tool for the last 6 months.

But I can tell you there is no Rocket science in my tool or Logic.

I have explained the logic many a times. I will explain it once again for you.

1. For a given set of last 80 candlestick Closing values, Calculate the Trend (I use the excel function called TREND).
2. Then Calculate the standard deviation of these 80 points (I use the excel function STEYX) - You will get a Value XX
3. To the TREND Lines you got from 1, Add the value XX, You should a Get your Trend RESISTANCE.
4. To the TREND Lines you got from 1, Subtract the value XX, You should a Get your Trend SUPPORT.
5. You can add a bit of customization by using the VOLT on top of the RESISTANCE / SUPPORT.
6. I normally calculate two Supports (S1 and S2) and Two Resistances (R1 and R2). Two times XX should give you R2 or S2.
7. To get the MINOR Trend, Repeat the above Steps 1 to 5 using last 30 candlesticks instead of last 80 candlesticks.

In the last 3 months starting from 13-Mar, From the Day I decided to go SLOW, I have been trying only one or two strategies and it works for me. But it will not make me SUPER Rich in a Year. But it has consistently given more than 20% in month. I only Trade options and I mostly SELL options (and sometimes combine with a BUY when I feel there is a Strong direction like Yesterday from 7450/70.). Sometimes I hold my position for a Week just to get 20/25 points.

As long you don't experiment and develop your own system, my opinion is any great system would not be useful for somebody. So please try and develop a system which would suit your trading method.

Dear raj,
pls check the file n let us know if this is ok,

ht tp://w ww. 4shared . com/ file/ tqSkrxBRce/healthrajs_trend_finder. html

 

[healthraj]

Dear raj,
pls check the file n let us know if this is ok,

ht tp://w ww. 4shared . com/ file/ tqSkrxBRce/healthrajs_trend_finder. html

Please find the updated version

ht tp:// w ww. 4shared .com/file/ZiRmzVBTce/healthrajs_trend_finder.html

I have slightly modified the approach. Instead of taking the Trend of the Close price. I find the Trend of High and Trend of the Low and Took an average of the two trends to get the overall trend line or pivot line...

R1 = High Trend + Standard Error
S1 = Low Trend - Standard Error
R2 = R1 + Standard Error
S2 = S1 - Standard Error

I have corrected all the formulas.

For calculating the Pivot line, Instead of taking an Average High Trend and Low Trend, One can also directly find the Trend from the "Close" price

 

[parmit]

Please find the updated version

ht tp:// w ww. 4shared .com/file/ZiRmzVBTce/healthrajs_trend_finder.html

I have slightly modified the approach. Instead of taking the Trend of the Close price. I find the Trend of High and Trend of the Low and Took an average of the two trends to get the overall trend line or pivot line...

R1 = High Trend + Standard Error
S1 = Low Trend - Standard Error
R2 = R1 + Standard Error
S2 = S1 - Standard Error

I have corrected all the formulas.

For calculating the Pivot line, Instead of taking an Average High Trend and Low Trend, One can also directly find the Trend from the "Close" price

bro m not good in using excel so it would a great favour if u tell me hw to use it to get trends...

 

[lemondew]

Raj,

Todays interpretation please

 

[healthraj]

Due to News on Oil Stocks, The OIL Stocks corrected Heavily this morning thus causing a BREAKDOWN in the LTF.

MAX OI @ 7500-7600
MAX COI @ 7600-7600 indicating a BD this morning.

MAX Option Pain at 7500. Yesterday it was 7550.

In LTF there is a BUY signal between 7524 and 7545

Ln HTF, The minor Trend support is at 7519, which if holds can act as support and then NIFTY can goto 7620. Otherwise it can goto 7466 and/or 7413.

But for Today I think 7520 SPOT will hold.

The position that I took (Buy 7650CE and Sell 7600PE ) in JUN-14 Series is at a loss of 16 points. I am still holding it....

In the Daily Futures Chart, the Pivot is at ~7650. So I am still hoping that NIFTY will expire above 7600. Or Probably NIFTY Will expire around the Hourly Pivot which is at 7550.

LET US SEE, What happens from here.