NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

[lemondew]

Raj.

With budget. How much points do you expect nifty to move in this series. Max 600 points? May be 250 points before budget run up and 300 points up and down post budget ?

The values seem to be correct.

This kind of spreads with 200 points difference in Strike price will be profitable if there is a strong movement in one direction with increased or same volatility. Otherwise in time both the positions will lose the time value and be in loss... The above scenarios assumes no change in Volatility. If the Volatility goes down then it would be a disaster.

But with Budget around 10-Jul, we can expect some increase in Volatility and possibly some strong movement and hence some profits

 

[healthraj]

Raj,

Did you got disappointed as this expiry did not closed around daily PIVOT which i think you were expecting this time as well?

Disappointed ? No. I am used to it. I lost 18 points that I had put in the Expiry Trade. But losing is part of my trading.

From 13-Mar-14, I have taken 37 Trades,

2 Closed with No Profit / Loss.
4 Trades with a loss of around 20 points.
The Rest 31 trades are with Profit.

Average loss is -17 points.
Average profit is 44 points.

Yes we have to learn from each mistake. So the learning is to follow the Chart and the technical rather than expecting or Predicting. This is not the first time. But in the last 3 months I think this was the first time... It does not mean that you should not expect where the market will go.... But I think I will stick my expectation to the Lower time frame and Hourly charts.

 

[parmit]

Disappointed ? No. I am used to it. I lost 18 points that I had put in the Expiry Trade. But losing is part of my trading.

From 13-Mar-14, I have taken 37 Trades,

2 Closed with No Profit / Loss.
4 Trades with a loss of around 20 points.
The Rest 31 trades are with Profit.

Average loss is -17 points.
Average profit is 44 points.

Yes we have to learn from each mistake. So the learning is to follow the Chart and the technical rather than expecting or Predicting. This is not the first time. But in the last 3 months I think this was the first time... It does not mean that you should not expect where the market will go.... But I think I will stick my expectation to the Lower time frame and Hourly charts.

raj bro
this 44 point profit is per trade or per month

 

[healthraj]

First day of JUL-14 Series.

A Long Series and so a Lot of action will happen. The last time we had a long month was in August and a Lot of actions happened in AUG-13.

Budget is on 08/Jul and 10/Jul. So there might a Jackpot trade around 10-Jul. But I don't to plan for 10-Jul now.

Take the profit as it comes....

For today ...

MAX OI @ 7000-8000 - The real levels will be clear in the next week.
MAX COI @ 7300-7600 - Indicating a FLAT day...

In LTF, LONG in progress from 7480. First Resistance will come at 7538.

In Hourly charts, bounced back from Minor Trend support and LONG in progress. If the LONG continues, then the RESISTANCE is around 7600.

In Daily charts the SELL in progress from 7715.

No Open positions for me. Will open the position may by EOD today.

 

[healthraj]

raj bro
this 44 point profit is per trade or per month

Per trade...

 

[anilnegi]

First day of JUL-14 Series.

A Long Series and so a Lot of action will happen. The last time we had a long month was in August and a Lot of actions happened in AUG-13.

Budget is on 08/Jul and 10/Jul. So there might a Jackpot trade around 10-Jul. But I don't to plan for 10-Jul now.

Take the profit as it comes....

For today ...

MAX OI @ 7000-8000 - The real levels will be clear in the next week.
MAX COI @ 7300-7600 - Indicating a FLAT day...

In LTF, LONG in progress from 7480. First Resistance will come at 7538.

In Hourly charts, bounced back from Minor Trend support and LONG in progress. If the LONG continues, then the RESISTANCE is around 7600.

In Daily charts the SELL in progress from 7715.

No Open positions for me. Will open the position may by EOD today.

Raj bhai

since this is the start of month can we initiate trade using 7000 & 8000 call and put

anil

 

[healthraj]

Raj.

With budget. How much points do you expect nifty to move in this series. Max 600 points? May be 250 points before budget run up and 300 points up and down post budget ?

No one can Predict the right movement. But we can always speculate. My speculation would be as follows.

In Monthly charts, SELL has been triggered in MAY-14. In the Weekly Charts, SELL has been triggered from 12-May onwards.... So may be it was Ripe for some real correction and why not that happen on a Crucial Budget day. My speculation would be for market to correct till 7030. First till 7450, Second correction till 7216 and then till 7030 and then may be 6877. All the above levels are in Futures.

So if one has to take a Risk now and expect 7030, it would be around 500 points... 7100 PE available at 25.

So if one Buys 1000 quantities now @ 25... It should at least give a profit of 2 times.

 

[healthraj]

Opened the following position.

BIAS : DOWN

SOLD 7200PE-7700CE @ 128. Bought 7500PE @ 139 - Net outflow of 11.

Reason : In the hourly charts the Minor Trend / Pivot 7520 Seems to be breaking Down.

Will close the position around 7460 SPOT or if moves above 7530 (Stoploss) or if 20 point stop loss hit.

 

[healthraj]

Opened the following position.

BIAS : DOWN

SOLD 7200PE-7700CE @ 128. Bought 7500PE @ 139 - Net outflow of 11.

Reason : In the hourly charts the Minor Trend / Pivot 7520 Seems to be breaking Down.

Will close the position around 7460 SPOT or if moves above 7530 (Stoploss) or if 20 point stop loss hit.

One can also take the Same positions as in MAX COI. ie SELL the pair 7000PE-7600CE @ 138 and BUY a Put. It would be ideal compared 7200-7700 Pair that I have sold.

 

[anilnegi]

Opened the following position.

BIAS : DOWN

SOLD 7200PE-7700CE @ 128. Bought 7500PE @ 139 - Net outflow of 11.

Reason : In the hourly charts the Minor Trend / Pivot 7520 Seems to be breaking Down.

Will close the position around 7460 SPOT or if moves above 7530 (Stoploss) or if 20 point stop loss hit.

Raj

Any specific reason for selling 7200 pe - 7700 ce moreover, which put one should take for 2nd option you have mentioned.

anil