NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

[lemondew]

deleted. Comment not conclusive.

 

[healthraj]

So what went wrong today ?

Was the Options Chain data not giving the right direction ? No. It was giving the right target. But our mind was conditioned and was looking to SELL rather than trading towards the target.

Let us look at NIFTY.

NIFTY COI on Friday closed at 7700-7900, giving an indication that 7800 was the target for Monday.

Today COI was changing from 7600-7900, to 7500-7900 to 7800-7900. When it changed to 7800-7900, NIFTY was trading around 7820/30 and it has already tested 7800. The average of COI and OI was at 7925. So we should have played for 7925/00. But we were looking to SELL.


BANKNIFTY.

COI was at 15400-16200. Average of COI and OI was at 15650 when BANKNIFTY was trading below 15400, we should have bought for target of 15650 or 15800 (average of COI). Once again we were looking for a lower target and trying to SELL.

Today NIFTY COI Closed at 7800-7800 and OI at 7800-8200. So the Average of COI and OI comes to 7900, which is already met today. So tomorrow the target could be 7800 as per COI

BANKNIFTY COI at closing was 15000-15700. 15700 already met today. So the first target as per COI is 15350. And Average of COI and OI at 15425.

Let us see if we are able to analyze correctly for tomorrow.
So once again Options Chain data was giving the right targets and Direction but since our mind was conditioned for a down move not able to take the right moves...

 

[healthraj]

How abt this it cam e in m y mind
Loss in CE premiums may be an indicator of reversal. Oi remaining same.
The buyer (net long position) -bulllish doesnt want to reverse. Seller (net short) bullish wants to reverse and would go with the buyers price.

-ve Change in OI : buyer is bearish reverses. Seller is bullish reverses. Neutral state.

+ve change in OI. new buyers bullish. new sellers bearish come in. Neutral state

Loss of CE Premiums - this could also be due to VOLT coming down. This was the traditional way people predicted using Options chain.

I did not quite understand the rest of it. May be if you can explain with todays data, it would help

 

[Option.Trader]

So what went wrong today ?

Was the Options Chain data not giving the right direction ? No. It was giving the right target. But our mind was conditioned and was looking to SELL rather than trading towards the target.

Let us look at NIFTY.

NIFTY COI on Friday closed at 7700-7900, giving an indication that 7800 was the target for Monday.

Today COI was changing from 7600-7900, to 7500-7900 to 7800-7900. When it changed to 7800-7900, NIFTY was trading around 7820/30 and it has already tested 7800. The average of COI and OI was at 7925. So we should have played for 7925/00. But we were looking to SELL.


BANKNIFTY.

COI was at 15400-16200. Average of COI and OI was at 15650 when BANKNIFTY was trading below 15400, we should have bought for target of 15650 or 15800 (average of COI). Once again we were looking for a lower target and trying to SELL.

Today NIFTY COI Closed at 7800-7800 and OI at 7800-8200. So the Average of COI and OI comes to 7900, which is already met today. So tomorrow the target could be 7800 as per COI

BANKNIFTY COI at closing was 15000-15700. 15700 already met today. So the first target as per COI is 15350. And Average of COI and OI at 15425.

Let us see if we are able to analyze correctly for tomorrow.
So once again Options Chain data was giving the right targets and Direction but since our mind was conditioned for a down move not able to take the right moves...

Depends on what you choose to average. Previously you had mentioned choosing chgoi and Maxoi, and then only chgoi, I think just aligning the end day result with convenient average is just shifting the target, i believe for intraday chgoi holds imp especially if maxoi is also the same

 

[healthraj]

Depends on what you choose to average. Previously you had mentioned choosing chgoi and Maxoi, and then only chgoi, I think just aligning the end day result with convenient average is just shifting the target, i believe for intraday chgoi holds imp especially if maxoi is also the same

I said the following ...

For Rangebound - First Target would be the Average of COI. The Second Target would be the Average of OI and COI.

If it is Directional... We can just take the COI range...

 

[manishchan]

So what went wrong today ?

It was giving the right target. But our mind was conditioned and was looking to SELL rather than trading towards the target.

Loved the line... this applied everywhere in today's trading session :thumb:

 

[manishchan]

Just noticed an interesting thing.. may be you can clarify this Raj.. Mentioned below are 2 diff links for the same Oct expiry Options Chain Data.

1st one shows NIFTY close @ 7884.25 and the MAX OI CHANGE is 7800

2nd shows NIFTY close @ 7882.7 and the MAX OI CHANGE is 8000

Any idea why this diff.. ?

http://www.nseindia.com/live_market...tionKeys.jsp?symbol=NIFTY&instrument=-&date=-

http://www.nseindia.com/live_market...-&segmentLink=17&symbolCount=2&segmentLink=17

 

[healthraj]

Just noticed an interesting thing.. may be you can clarify this Raj.. Mentioned below are 2 diff links for the same Oct expiry Options Chain Data.

1st one shows NIFTY close @ 7884.25 and the MAX OI CHANGE is 7800

2nd shows NIFTY close @ 7882.7 and the MAX OI CHANGE is 8000

Any idea why this diff.. ?

http://www.nseindia.com/live_market...tionKeys.jsp?symbol=NIFTY&instrument=-&date=-

http://www.nseindia.com/live_market...-&segmentLink=17&symbolCount=2&segmentLink=17

I use the first link. The Second link is a general link which has the syntax for the Futures also.

The problem with the both the links that the expiry date is not explicitly mentioned and so a bestfit will be found.

So better to specify the Expiry date explicitly as below

 http://www.nseindia.com/live_market/dynaContent/live_watch/option_chain/optionKeys.jsp?symbol=NIFTY&date=30OCT2014

BTW both the links showed me only 7884.25

 

[manishchan]

I use the first link. The Second link is a general link which has the syntax for the Futures also.

The problem with the both the links that the expiry date is not explicitly mentioned and so a bestfit will be found.

So better to specify the Expiry date explicitly as below

 http://www.nseindia.com/live_market/dynaContent/live_watch/option_chain/optionKeys.jsp?symbol=NIFTY&date=30OCT2014

BTW both the links showed me only 7884.25

Second one shows 82.7 Raj. anyways.. 7884.25 is d correct close so we shud go by dt. Thanks !!!

 

[rajesh_]

Both showing different values. More over when I checked excel in office after 3:30 , coi range is 7800-7900..@ home 7800-7800. Not sure what could be reason.