NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

[Option.Trader]

I said the following ...

For Rangebound - First Target would be the Average of COI. The Second Target would be the Average of OI and COI.

If it is Directional... We can just take the COI range...

Giving it a shot one more time
At end of 13th Oct
Indication of range bound market (400 points range in Maxoi)
1st target of 7900 already achieved,
2nd target 7950
Unless options change by maxchgoi of pe at 7900 or heavy unwinding of 7900/8000 ce it would be a sell at 7950
Let's figure out tomo, but I think this is a decent indicator so far

 

[adg123]

Both showing different values. More over when I checked excel in office after 3:30 , coi range is 7800-7900..@ home 7800-7800. Not sure what could be reason.

Using LINK <http://www.nseindia.com/live_market/dynaContent/live_watch/option_chain/optionKeys.jsp?symbol=NIFTY&date=30OCT2014> as recommended by Raj :thumb:
I think it shows true value...

 

[healthraj]

Giving it a shot one more time
At end of 13th Oct
Indication of range bound market (400 points range in Maxoi)
1st target of 7900 already achieved,
2nd target 7950
Unless options change by maxchgoi of pe at 7900 or heavy unwinding of 7900/8000 ce it would be a sell at 7950
Let's figure out tomo, but I think this is a decent indicator so far

This analysis is wrong.

1. First one has to take a view of whether the market will be Rangebound or Trending based on COI and NOT OI.
2. If it is TRENDING then the COI will be the Range for the Day.
3. If it is Rangebound, then we have to find the Range. one part of the Range will come from COI (average of COI) and the Second part of the Range would come COI and OI (Average of COI and OI).

So we cannot do the Analysis for today with Yesterday's OI and/or COI.

Examples

13-OCT-14
COI - 7600-7900, 7500-7900, 7800-7900 OI-7800-8200
Earlier part of the day was Rangebound since COI was at 7600-7900 and 7500-7900, 300 or 400 points.... So the first target was initially indicating 7750/7700. But when the COI changed to 7800-7900 it changed to Trending with 7800 as the Support and 7900 as the Resistance
So finally it was Trending between 7800-7900
Actual OHLC - Range -7831-7901-7796-7884

10-OCT-14
COI @ 7700-8000 OI@7800-8200
Rangebound between 7850 and 7925
Actual OHLC - Range -7911-7924-7848-7859

09-OCT-14
COI @ 7900-8000 OI @ 7800-8200
TRENDING between 7900 and 8000
Actual OHLC - Range -7886-7972-7886-7960

08-OCT-14
COI @ 7700-8000 OI @ 7800-8200
RANGEBOUND between 7850 and 7925
Actual OHLC - Range - 7828-7869-7815-7842

01-OCT-14
COI @ 7500-8400 OI @ 7800-8200
RANGEBOUND between 7950 and 7975
Actual OHLC - Range -7960-7977-7936-7945

NOTE : The above is based on my observation of the OI and COI and I am trying to deduce the Range based on the COI and OI. So any suggestions and improvements are welcome. I am not God to predict Range. Since it is being discussed in the open forum, I know there are a lot of silent leechers out there who will follow the strategy if it works and who will not even bother to acknowledge or even say thanks. I know a lot of folks in TJ now use OI and COI to place their trade even in Futures just because of OAT. So please help in making the trading simple...

 

[singlap]

Great analysis Raj.

 

[coolbull]

This analysis is wrong.

13-OCT-14
COI - 7600-7900, 7500-7900, 7800-7900 OI-7800-8200
Earlier part of the day was Rangebound since COI was at 7600-7900 and 7500-7900, 300 or 400 points.... So the first target was initially indicating 7750/7700. But when the COI changed to 7800-7900 it changed to Trending with 7800 as the Support and 7900 as the Resistance
So finally it was Trending between 7800-7900
Actual OHLC - Range -7831-7901-7796-7884

10-OCT-14
COI @ 7700-8000 OI@7800-8200
Rangebound between 7850 and 7925
Actual OHLC - Range -7911-7924-7848-7859

09-OCT-14
COI @ 7900-8000 OI @ 7800-8200
TRENDING between 7900 and 8000
Actual OHLC - Range -7886-7972-7886-7960

08-OCT-14
COI @ 7700-8000 OI @ 7800-8200
RANGEBOUND between 7850 and 7925
Actual OHLC - Range - 7828-7869-7815-7842

01-OCT-14
COI @ 7500-8400 OI @ 7800-8200
RANGEBOUND between 7950 and 7975
Actual OHLC - Range -7960-7977-7936-7945

NOTE : because of OAT. So please help in making the trading simple...

Raj.....thats simply awesome work...

 

[vikasnp81]

max COI in 7800 - 8000

 

[angira]

This analysis is wrong.

1. First one has to take a view of whether the market will be Rangebound or Trending based on COI and NOT OI.
2. If it is TRENDING then the COI will be the Range for the Day.
3. If it is Rangebound, then we have to find the Range. one part of the Range will come from COI (average of COI) and the Second part of the Range would come COI and OI (Average of COI and OI).

So we cannot do the Analysis for today with Yesterday's OI and/or COI.

Examples

13-OCT-14
COI - 7600-7900, 7500-7900, 7800-7900 OI-7800-8200
Earlier part of the day was Rangebound since COI was at 7600-7900 and 7500-7900, 300 or 400 points.... So the first target was initially indicating 7750/7700. But when the COI changed to 7800-7900 it changed to Trending with 7800 as the Support and 7900 as the Resistance
So finally it was Trending between 7800-7900
Actual OHLC - Range -7831-7901-7796-7884

10-OCT-14
COI @ 7700-8000 OI@7800-8200
Rangebound between 7850 and 7925
Actual OHLC - Range -7911-7924-7848-7859

09-OCT-14
COI @ 7900-8000 OI @ 7800-8200
TRENDING between 7900 and 8000
Actual OHLC - Range -7886-7972-7886-7960

08-OCT-14
COI @ 7700-8000 OI @ 7800-8200
RANGEBOUND between 7850 and 7925
Actual OHLC - Range - 7828-7869-7815-7842

01-OCT-14
COI @ 7500-8400 OI @ 7800-8200
RANGEBOUND between 7950 and 7975
Actual OHLC - Range -7960-7977-7936-7945

NOTE : The above is based on my observation of the OI and COI and I am trying to deduce the Range based on the COI and OI. So any suggestions and improvements are welcome. I am not God to predict Range. Since it is being discussed in the open forum, I know there are a lot of silent leechers out there who will follow the strategy if it works and who will not even bother to acknowledge or even say thanks. I know a lot of folks in TJ now use OI and COI to place their trade even in Futures just because of OAT. So please help in making the trading simple...

Raj,
Good analysing methodology.
Thanx,

angira...

 

[angira]

Max CHG_OI at 7800-8000
Max OI at 7800-8200

angira...

 

[.epahi]

1) Max Pain shifted to 7900 from previous 7950 -> down signal.
2) Max CoI is 7800-8000 (where 8000>7800 shows downwards, but PE7800 also has Max OI, so over all trend IS neutral).
3) Average from CoI up till now is 7900 = Max Pain = NF Future -> Indicates a range Bound day.
Its a Range Bound day (+/- 25). Am I right Rajsir?

 

[singlap]

Raj, can you please guide on Apollo tyres. Max OI is 220 and its trading @ 227. Is is a sell ?