NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

[healthraj]

As told in the morning 5370 did Hold But since 5300 has become the bottom, Sell near 5430 and hold for 5250.

 

[jamit_05]

http://www.livemint.com/Money/7ed8Ae7g2qpEsbaSl3LNMN/Who-were-the-sellers-in-Fridays-crash.html

Mint's analysis on who sold on Friday. Says proprietary desks and local investors behind the crash.

Right. So, big boys didn't sell. Then a U-turn is not completely ruled out!
So, instead of being 100% bearish one has got to look out for bullish patterns too. But, there seems to be none.

As of now, 5100 PE has Coi of 20L now thats major! And 5400 lost its >70L status. No signs of bulls as yet.

 

[Option.Trader]

Right. So, big boys didn't sell. Then a U-turn is not completely ruled out!
So, instead of being 100% bearish one has got to look out for bullish patterns too. But, there seems to be none.

As of now, 5100 PE has Coi of 20L now thats major! And 5400 lost its >70L status. No signs of bulls as yet.

The analysis missed looking at options data, therein lay the full picture

 

[Option.Trader]

As told in the morning 5370 did Hold But since 5300 has become the bottom, Sell near 5430 and hold for 5250.

I think this is a good call

 

[Option.Trader]

Yes when I wrote it was 96L. After that market made high of around 5467 and came down. Now 5400 PEs are getting squared.

And the Trend has become a Weak Bull.

If what you said is true, 36lakh got unwound, the OI stands at 60L now, this is some serious capitulation from all over. Interesting to see where the Max pain in options stands.
Also can someone tell when the next RBI policy is due?

 

[shiv2012]

Also can someone tell when the next RBI policy is due?

The next Mid-Quarter Review of Monetary Policy for 2013-14 will be put out through a press release on Wednesday, September 18, 2013.

The Second Quarter Review of Monetary Policy for 2013-14 is scheduled on Tuesday, October 29, 2013

 

[Option.Trader]

The next Mid-Quarter Review of Monetary Policy for 2013-14 will be put out through a press release on Wednesday, September 18, 2013.

The Second Quarter Review of Monetary Policy for 2013-14 is scheduled on Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Guys, here's the theory, the sep 18 is the last chance for the govt to change the sentiment, I think it will go for a rate cut, with new RBI GUV. Let's see if we can play that. Ideas are welcome

 

[shiv2012]

Guys, here's the theory, the sep 18 is the last chance for the govt to change the sentiment, I think it will go for a rate cut, with new RBI GUV. Let's see if we can play that. Ideas are welcome

Thats the million dollar question. Thing is that Rajan has always said that Central banks should concentrate on currency & inflation. Going by that logic, the rates have to go up ( to combat inflation & provide reason for FIIs to stay put in debt since US rates are also going up). Lowering rates will only hurt the rupee even more, though Chidu is adamant abt getting low rates. The difficulty in predicting the event lies in the fact that we don't have a clue about Rajan's personality. Subbarao never cared for the Finmin's favour, but will Rajan do the same is the big question...

 

[healthraj]

Guys, here's the theory, the sep 18 is the last chance for the govt to change the sentiment, I think it will go for a rate cut, with new RBI GUV. Let's see if we can play that. Ideas are welcome

I think for BANKNIFTY seems to be building base at 9000. But for NIFTY the base is still not built. So now the stocks which rallied like the IT Stocks might be the target for selling so that the market can be brought down to around 5250.

So in this month, that way

6000-5500 - 500 points - Done
5500-5750 - 250 points - Done
5750-5250 - 500 points - 350 done - 150 Pending - The pending points might be done in this week and the consolidation might start for an UP movement.

so it would be a good idea to Buy BANKNIFTY SEP-13 options like 11000 CE @ 30 and Keep dreaming for BANKNIFTY would go UP

The VOLT for BANKNIFTY has come down indicating a BUY

The VOLT of NIFTY is on higher side indicating a SELL

 

[arcus]

Guys, here's the theory, the sep 18 is the last chance for the govt to change the sentiment, I think it will go for a rate cut, with new RBI GUV. Let's see if we can play that. Ideas are welcome

Going for a rate cut would be suicidal.

It would not only accelerate further Rupee depreciation (USD-INR is now at 63.11) but also increase the inflationary pressures. WPI as you know came in at 5.79% (a full 100 bps above estimates) and CPI at 9.64%.

We are suffering from what is called Stagflation and rate cuts would only make things worse for the above reasons.

If you please the stock market, you end up hurting the currency and commodity markets.