Nifty Pivot-based Mechanical Trading System coupled with 2 and 3 Day Swing Calls

[Sunil]

sirji on what basis have you taken the 2,3 days calls?can you give me idea

Make an effort & go through the first 2-3 pages of this thread.

Sunil ji kya aap shares ke bare me bhi aisa kuchh system bana ya bata sakte hain
very nervous bcoz tomm is my first trading day

I do not trade in shares; only nifty for me.

You may visit this thread but I am not sure if it is advisable for novices / first-timers.

 

[MARKETBHAVISHYA]

thank you sunilji.iwill do that

 

[Sunil]

Hello All,
Again a newbie here, although I have been following the posts in this thread as well as TSunilji's mechanical trading updates since a few days. Am still learning and hope to profit from your experience
Referring to ongoing thread, what if we consider the slide from 3147(7th) to 2701 (15th) as the first leg of the downmove? In that case the retracements are - 2807 (23.6%), 2872 (38.2%), 2924 (50%), 2977 (61.8%). Does this sound fitting in with your view, guys? Personally I would vote for the 50% retracement level, not more than that. Can others share their view please? Or in case, I am making some mistake, kindly correct me.

Please don't follow all my posts blindly. Even I am a learner in this market. It's just that I like to stick my neck out & share my views in this democratic forum.

I am neither an expert nor a student of Elliot wave analysis. So, I cannot answer your 1st part - first leg or what???

Regarding Fibonacci retracements, you seem to have a good idea how to identify mere correction or actual change in trend. 50% is a ball-mark invisible but handy level. Not exactly invisible this time, coz we do have a day high at 2930, coinciding with that 50% mark.

Intermediate trend will turn bullish only when 3150 is taken out.
Short term trend turns bullish if it breaks above 2850-70 band AND/OR closes above 2836 tomorrow. All Spot levels.

Though I will not be all that positive, unless I see 2 more days of closing above 2800 AND/OR break of 2930. I'll hang on to long positions only for intraday basis, or positional trade may be of less than normal quantity.

Even in weekly charts, although it broke down 2800 level, it closed above that level. Weekly high (last five days' high) is at 2853.

For next week, personally, I would like to have less weightage for positional trades, and scoop out intraday moves by having an unbiased mind.

 

[Sunil]

The downtrend from 3150 has been in form of Lower-Highs Lower-Lows (LH LL) pattern.
Such a pattern breaks when the previous LH is broken on upside.

As on 13-Jan's close, such crucial previous LH level was Spot 2910.

With today's price movement, the tag shifts to SPOT 2853.
Spot 2853 is also a common High of 12-Jan & 14-Jan.
After tomorrow's trading session (unless Spot 2853 is taken out), Spot 2853 will also be the last 5 day swing high / WEEKLY HIGH.

As discussed in an earlier post, 2853 is the level to look out for break & sustaining on intraday basis.

Excel's Pivot method 2 whipsaws in continuous sessions signal us the looming possibility of reversal of short term trend.

But, as afore-mentioned in previous post, I am wary of a possibility of a lower top below 3150. This can be anywhere between 2870 & 2930.
I will exit my balance shorts on break of 2853 on intraday basis, but may not reverse to longs for positional trade. I still prefer to be neutral in 2853-2930 band, and will keep my trades limited to intraday trading.

Intermediate & short trends, both turned down during Satyam's scam outbreak week. Week Jan 12-16 saw attempts to close below 2800 but failed, as it week ultimately closed above 2800.

I view this more as a corrective rally of fall from 3150 to 2700, and will keep my bear mask ready in 2900+ zone. Logical stop of 3000 would be very close by then.

I would like regular members of this thread to also express their views, shedding inhibitions.

Just to involve a bit of maths here:

2872 = 38.2% retracement = 50DSMA
2924 = 50.0% retracement = 20DSMA

Though not 100% sure as of now, but logically, break of 2700 will also result in BEARISH CROSSOVER OF 20DSMA & 50SMA.

 

[deb99891]

nice sunil
keep it up

 

[MINITRADER99]

As discussed in an earlier post, 2853 is the level to look out for break & sustaining on intraday basis.

Excel's Pivot method 2 whipsaws in continuous sessions signal us the looming possibility of reversal of short term trend.

But, as afore-mentioned in previous post, I am wary of a possibility of a lower top below 3150. This can be anywhere between 2870 & 2930.
I will exit my balance shorts on break of 2853 on intraday basis, but may not reverse to longs for positional trade. I still prefer to be neutral in 2853-2930 band, and will keep my trades limited to intraday trading.

Intermediate & short trends, both turned down during Satyam's scam outbreak week. Week Jan 12-16 saw attempts to close below 2800 but failed, as it week ultimately closed above 2800.

I view this more as a corrective rally of fall from 3150 to 2700, and will keep my bear mask ready in 2900+ zone. Logical stop of 3000 would be very close by then.

I would like regular members of this thread to also express their views, shedding inhibitions.

Just to involve a bit of maths here:

2872 = 38.2% retracement = 50DSMA
2924 = 50.0% retracement = 20DSMA

Though not 100% sure as of now, but logically, break of 2700 will also result in BEARISH CROSSOVER OF 20DSMA & 50SMA.

Sunil Bhai,
Thank you very much for giving the broad outlook. I have started learning Chart Analysis and I am improving. I have started taking independent decision during market hours and mostly they are correct,logical and accurate. Though I have not taken full advantage of my profitable positions due to various reasons. Started reading this thread this week only and devoted full saturday and sunday on the logic behind your recommendations/decisions. Since all these days I have traded and having charts for all days I analysed my mistakes and shortcomings using your technique. I have committed some mistakes and some times did not trade due to fear and exited the trade but now I am more confident. Thank you for sharing your vast knowledge with new comers and continue to post your outlook about the market as per your convenience. It helps us a lot.
Thank you once more.

 

[dhavalj]

Sunilbhai,
Thanks for such an exhaustive coverage of your view and the background for the same. Even I want to preserve the neutral view for atleast next week in view of the Obama factor on tuesday which might give some hope-based upside and also get us close to a nice stoploss level in case of being proved wrong. As far as Elliott is concerned, even I am not very confident, but will describe my thought process. I am applying only classic EW since I dont know about Neowave,etc. One alternative was that the moves from 2252 was a contracting triangle (a-b-c-d-e) which usually comes before the final leg of the larger trend, i.e. down in this case. While it is supposed to be confined between converging trendlines, the theory does provide for a undershoot/overshoot in the fifth 'e'. So it can be a valid alternative till 3147 is taken on the upside. Accordingly the final leg has then started and going atleast till the earlier low. Another option is that the move from 2502 (20-nov) to 3147 looks like overlapping 5 waves. So the move from 2252 could be a flat (a-b-c) with a diagonal in wave c. Again that implies that it was a corrective rally which is over and we should trend down. Note in this case that the c wave did not go beyond 'a' which is called a failed flat which occurs when the main trend is quite strong. Now if we try to look for a bullish alternative, then the diagonal c wave above that we discussed could have been considered diagonal wave 1 of an impulse and now wave 2 is correcting it in which case it wont go below 2502. That would of course leave us with the problem of accounting for the a (2252 to 3240) and b (3240 to 2502) moves as part of the earlier trend. But the assumed wave 1 looks too weak and wave 2 retracement looks faster time-wise. So it is a very low-probability count. Comments are welcome.
I also wanted some views on the trends in the broader market. A look at the mid-cap and small-cap indices is giving me an impression that broader market has lost steam and is not rising with the large-caps in the last week's rallies. Can one conclude anything out of it, i.e. its proof that they are counter-trend rallies? or is it of no significance? Also it seems we are now in the 13th month since the top - a Fibo number.

 

[MARKETBHAVISHYA]

Sunilbhai,
Thanks for such an exhaustive coverage of your view and the background for the same. Even I want to preserve the neutral view for atleast next week in view of the Obama factor on tuesday which might give some hope-based upside and also get us close to a nice stoploss level in case of being proved wrong. As far as Elliott is concerned, even I am not very confident, but will describe my thought process. I am applying only classic EW since I dont know about Neowave,etc. One alternative was that the moves from 2252 was a contracting triangle (a-b-c-d-e) which usually comes before the final leg of the larger trend, i.e. down in this case. While it is supposed to be confined between converging trendlines, the theory does provide for a undershoot/overshoot in the fifth 'e'. So it can be a valid alternative till 3147 is taken on the upside. Accordingly the final leg has then started and going atleast till the earlier low. Another option is that the move from 2502 (20-nov) to 3147 looks like overlapping 5 waves. So the move from 2252 could be a flat (a-b-c) with a diagonal in wave c. Again that implies that it was a corrective rally which is over and we should trend down. Note in this case that the c wave did not go beyond 'a' which is called a failed flat which occurs when the main trend is quite strong. Now if we try to look for a bullish alternative, then the diagonal c wave above that we discussed could have been considered diagonal wave 1 of an impulse and now wave 2 is correcting it in which case it wont go below 2502. That would of course leave us with the problem of accounting for the a (2252 to 3240) and b (3240 to 2502) moves as part of the earlier trend. But the assumed wave 1 looks too weak and wave 2 retracement looks faster time-wise. So it is a very low-probability count. Comments are welcome.
I also wanted some views on the trends in the broader market. A look at the mid-cap and small-cap indices is giving me an impression that broader market has lost steam and is not rising with the large-caps in the last week's rallies. Can one conclude anything out of it, i.e. its proof that they are counter-trend rallies? or is it of no significance? Also it seems we are now in the 13th month since the top - a Fibo number.

dhavalji.aapko itna saara knowledge hain par aap itni der se TJ kyu join kiya?pehle kidhar se seekha aapne ye sab theories?mujhe bhi sikhado yaar.kuch tho profit karado is gareeb ko.your post good hai

 

[Sunil]

Thank you MiniTrader99 & Dhaval for shedding inhibitions & expressing your views.

When I joined this forum (nearly a year back) as a learner, I first observed the working knowledge being discussed & realised that textbook knowledge is just not enough. A good screen-based trading experience goes a long way to build your confidence level.

CHARTS is the BEST TEACHER from whom one can learn from - you may hear/see recommendations from others, and wonder what's the reason behind that call. I realised that it's useless asking others, and better to consult the "best teacher" and find the logic myself.
Then, finally shedding inhibitions, I started posting charts & levels ALONG WITH REASONS. I never made it sound like a call or trade recommendation (charts & reasonings were enough to express the directional bias) - obviously, what I see is what others also see - it's just a question of perspective & mindset.

And as a mid-learner, these charts & posts would boost my confidence, just like Minitrader mentioned. Believe me, trading requires not only brains but also heart - if u conquer both or both are in favour of your call, then a trader's worst fears like fear, greed, etc will be kept at bay.

So, do your homework, anaylse the charts using unbiased mind, mark out key levels to look out for & post such chart & your views/reasoning here. If it turns rights, highlight it & cherish it in your heart, and show it over here. There are some people who take this in a negative way, but let's just ignore them. Think like you are doing favour ONLY TO YOURSELF and no one else. This is a confidence-building exercise, which also leads to a healthy confluence of discussions & views from others too.

This is very essential for entry & mid-level learners (we all remain learners in this market all our life, no one graduates - shed your inhibitions, post your NIFTY charts here from positional trading point of view & your analysis.
CONFIDENCE-BOOST IS THE SECRET OF MY TRADING (to borrow form the popular advertisement).

I have come across few member-friends of this forum who had the call right, but did not trade it, only because of lack of confidence.

WHEN YOU HEAR, YOU KNOW,
WHEN YOU SEE, YOU REMEMBER,
but
WHEN YOU DO, YOU UNDERSTAND....

 

[MINITRADER99]

Thank you MiniTrader99 & Dhaval for shedding inhibitions & expressing your views.

When I joined this forum (nearly a year back) as a learner, I first observed the working knowledge being discussed & realised that textbook knowledge is just not enough. A good screen-based trading experience goes a long way to build your confidence level.

CHARTS is the BEST TEACHER from whom one can learn from - you may hear/see recommendations from others, and wonder what's the reason behind that call. I realised that it's useless asking others, and better to consult the "best teacher" and find the logic myself.
Then, finally shedding inhibitions, I started posting charts & levels ALONG WITH REASONS. I never made it sound like a call or trade recommendation (charts & reasonings were enough to express the directional bias) - obviously, what I see is what others also see - it's just a question of perspective & mindset.

And as a mid-learner, these charts & posts would boost my confidence, just like Minitrader mentioned. Believe me, trading requires not only brains but also heart - if u conquer both or both are in favour of your call, then a trader's worst fears like fear, greed, etc will be kept at bay.

So, do your homework, anaylse the charts using unbiased mind, mark out key levels to look out for & post such chart & your views/reasoning here. If it turns rights, highlight it & cherish it in your heart, and show it over here. There are some people who take this in a negative way, but let's just ignore them. Think like you are doing favour ONLY TO YOURSELF and no one else. This is a confidence-building exercise, which also leads to a healthy confluence of discussions & views from others too.

This is very essential for entry & mid-level learners (we all remain learners in this market all our life, no one graduates - shed your inhibitions, post your NIFTY charts here from positional trading point of view & your analysis.
CONFIDENCE-BOOST IS THE SECRET OF MY TRADING (to borrow form the popular advertisement).

I have come across few member-friends of this forum who had the call right, but did not trade it, only because of lack of confidence.

WHEN YOU HEAR, YOU KNOW,
WHEN YOU SEE, YOU REMEMBER,
but
WHEN YOU DO, YOU UNDERSTAND....

Thank you Sunil Bhai for this encouraging post. I am really indebted to this great forum learning from Teach a man to fish, Set up discussed in nifty trading , 60 minute flow etc. I am far better now in company of great stalwarts of this forum. I am learning fast and definitely post my charts one day and reasoning for the trade. Thank you once again.