Nifty Pivot-based Mechanical Trading System coupled with 2 and 3 Day Swing Calls
- Thread starter Sunil
- Start date
We are all here to learn & share our knowledge & experience (& earn in process by applying the knowledge practically)
Please, I request everyone not to express any thanks or appreciation.
BUT PLEASE LET ME KNOW IF I AM WRONG IN MY APPROACH & ANALYSIS.
I would be more happy if regular visitors are encouraged to post their Nifty charts here & share their views.
For those who are interested in learning ABCs (basics) of chart & technical analysis, I would recommend this website.
Also, this part is the heart of our Forum and very dear to me. Second & third gear shifts here; also for more Indianised version.
As part of Nifty Intraday Trading thread, we have this Library thread. Here few members (including me) have discussed some setups for Intraday trading. But since the basic concept/idea remains the same, they can be applied for positional trading too (just a change to higher timeframe charts i.e. 30min / 60min / daily / weekly charts is required).
Forth gear shifts when one starts applying these knowledge to actual trading.
Fifth / overdrive gear may take 6 months to 12 months, depending on each person subjectively. This is not a race against anyone, but ONLY for yourself & your family.
Please, I request everyone not to express any thanks or appreciation.
BUT PLEASE LET ME KNOW IF I AM WRONG IN MY APPROACH & ANALYSIS.
I would be more happy if regular visitors are encouraged to post their Nifty charts here & share their views.
For those who are interested in learning ABCs (basics) of chart & technical analysis, I would recommend this website.
Also, this part is the heart of our Forum and very dear to me. Second & third gear shifts here; also for more Indianised version.
As part of Nifty Intraday Trading thread, we have this Library thread. Here few members (including me) have discussed some setups for Intraday trading. But since the basic concept/idea remains the same, they can be applied for positional trading too (just a change to higher timeframe charts i.e. 30min / 60min / daily / weekly charts is required).
Forth gear shifts when one starts applying these knowledge to actual trading.
Fifth / overdrive gear may take 6 months to 12 months, depending on each person subjectively. This is not a race against anyone, but ONLY for yourself & your family.
POSITION AS AT END OF 21-JAN-09
1. Pivot Based mechanical system (Excel file):
SHORT signal as at close of 20-Jan @ SPOT 2797 / FUT 2776 maintains & continues.
2. 2 Day Swing
Current Signal: LONG as at close of 20-Jan @ SPOT 2846 reversed to SHORT signal as at today' close @ SPOT 2706.
SAR = CLOSE ABOVE SPOT 2843 (which is the highest high of the last two trading sessions)
3. 3 Day Swing
Current Signal: SHORT as at close of 7-Jan @ SPOT 2920
New SAR = CLOSE ABOVE SPOT 2868 (which is the highest high of the last three trading sessions)
OVERALL POSITION
It will reverse to LONG signal if SPOT closes above 2843 on 22-Jan.
1. Pivot Based mechanical system (Excel file):
SHORT signal as at close of 20-Jan @ SPOT 2797 / FUT 2776 maintains & continues.
2. 2 Day Swing
Current Signal: LONG as at close of 20-Jan @ SPOT 2846 reversed to SHORT signal as at today' close @ SPOT 2706.
SAR = CLOSE ABOVE SPOT 2843 (which is the highest high of the last two trading sessions)
3. 3 Day Swing
Current Signal: SHORT as at close of 7-Jan @ SPOT 2920
New SAR = CLOSE ABOVE SPOT 2868 (which is the highest high of the last three trading sessions)
OVERALL POSITION
It will reverse to LONG signal if SPOT closes above 2843 on 22-Jan.
Dear Sunil,
I was just wondering - if we simultaneously have more sheets with RIL, SBI, ONGC, Infy and maybe 1-2-3 more heavyweights of the Nifty then we can refine the SELL and BUY calls and the validity of these calls could have a higher achievement rate.
The logic/reason behind it is that Nifty by itself does not move - It is the movement of all the scrips in the Nifty - which in combinations of Plus and Minus movements - make the Nifty move. So, certain scrips which have a higher weight in the Nifty can be inserted and monitored on the same basis of the current excel sheet, then combine the BUY and SELL of all the scrips AND Nifty and come to either a BUY or SELL call for the Nifty itself.
Maybe it is just too time consuming or we cannot find out immediately, so start with 2, say RIL n SBI then if we see that it is a step in the right direction, then add more.
The reason I AM NOT DOING THIS and asking you to do it is bcoz I have no idea of Pivots and neither am I an expert in Excel.
Just a thought which I penned down ...
Murtaza
I was just wondering - if we simultaneously have more sheets with RIL, SBI, ONGC, Infy and maybe 1-2-3 more heavyweights of the Nifty then we can refine the SELL and BUY calls and the validity of these calls could have a higher achievement rate.
The logic/reason behind it is that Nifty by itself does not move - It is the movement of all the scrips in the Nifty - which in combinations of Plus and Minus movements - make the Nifty move. So, certain scrips which have a higher weight in the Nifty can be inserted and monitored on the same basis of the current excel sheet, then combine the BUY and SELL of all the scrips AND Nifty and come to either a BUY or SELL call for the Nifty itself.
Maybe it is just too time consuming or we cannot find out immediately, so start with 2, say RIL n SBI then if we see that it is a step in the right direction, then add more.
The reason I AM NOT DOING THIS and asking you to do it is bcoz I have no idea of Pivots and neither am I an expert in Excel.
Just a thought which I penned down ...
Murtaza
POSITION AS AT END OF 23-JAN-09
1. Pivot Based mechanical system (Excel file):
SHORT signal as at close of 20-Jan @ SPOT 2797 / FUT 2776 maintains & continues.
2. 2 Day Swing
Current Signal: SHORT signal as at close of 21-Jan @ SPOT 2706.
SAR = CLOSE ABOVE SPOT 2745 (which is the highest high of the last two trading sessions)
3. 3 Day Swing
Current Signal: SHORT as at close of 7-Jan @ SPOT 2920
New SAR = CLOSE ABOVE SPOT 2787 (which is the highest high of the last three trading sessions)
OVERALL POSITION
It will reverse to LONG signal if SPOT closes above 2745 on 27-Jan.
1. Pivot Based mechanical system (Excel file):
SHORT signal as at close of 20-Jan @ SPOT 2797 / FUT 2776 maintains & continues.
2. 2 Day Swing
Current Signal: SHORT signal as at close of 21-Jan @ SPOT 2706.
SAR = CLOSE ABOVE SPOT 2745 (which is the highest high of the last two trading sessions)
3. 3 Day Swing
Current Signal: SHORT as at close of 7-Jan @ SPOT 2920
New SAR = CLOSE ABOVE SPOT 2787 (which is the highest high of the last three trading sessions)
OVERALL POSITION
It will reverse to LONG signal if SPOT closes above 2745 on 27-Jan.
Finally, we see a closing below Spot 2700. Ideally, this rectangle 2870-2700 break should target 2530, as per target.
The overall system-indicator maintains its SELL signal.
Expiry/Settlement day is nearing and so is oversold zone, both in EOD and 60min charts.
Personally, I would be looking to cover 1/4 or 1/2 of my positional shorts in this 2650-30 band, depending on tomorrow's intraday price movements. S per EOD charts. the main support level is Spot 2570.
Due to the above-quoted level, we have an outside (bearish engulfing) bar in Spot's EOD charts. It implies a decent directional move tomorrow if 2766 break out or 2662 breaks down. (Such pattern is absent in Nifty Futures chart, due to obvious reason).
We also have a pivotal high in EOD charts at Spot 2868.
Bringing back the math:-
20DSMA & 50DSMA are slowly heading closer for a bearish cross-over. Their previous resulting bearish cross-overs effects have been highlighted here.
Key Fibonacci retracement levels for Spot 2870-2660 are:
38% = 2740 (ALSO, system-indicator's SAR level / 2 day swing high)
50% = 2765 (ALSO, freak trade's freak value as quoted above)
62% = 2790 (ALSO, 3 Day swing high)
Cool, how come these simple mathematical formulae's results mostly tend to COINCIDE with actual chartical levels!!!
The overall system-indicator maintains its SELL signal.
Expiry/Settlement day is nearing and so is oversold zone, both in EOD and 60min charts.
Personally, I would be looking to cover 1/4 or 1/2 of my positional shorts in this 2650-30 band, depending on tomorrow's intraday price movements. S per EOD charts. the main support level is Spot 2570.
Due to the above-quoted level, we have an outside (bearish engulfing) bar in Spot's EOD charts. It implies a decent directional move tomorrow if 2766 break out or 2662 breaks down. (Such pattern is absent in Nifty Futures chart, due to obvious reason).
We also have a pivotal high in EOD charts at Spot 2868.
Bringing back the math:-
20DSMA & 50DSMA are slowly heading closer for a bearish cross-over. Their previous resulting bearish cross-overs effects have been highlighted here.
Key Fibonacci retracement levels for Spot 2870-2660 are:
38% = 2740 (ALSO, system-indicator's SAR level / 2 day swing high)
50% = 2765 (ALSO, freak trade's freak value as quoted above)
62% = 2790 (ALSO, 3 Day swing high)
Cool, how come these simple mathematical formulae's results mostly tend to COINCIDE with actual chartical levels!!!
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