Nifty : Stats & Views
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Hello Linkon7 sir,
I has see this threads from sometime and your other great threads also. I thinkn in this thread you are giving many much information that I think will not require in trading. One side your theaory is to tradein what you see and not trading what you think. So sir, with all this crowd of informnation for FIIDII, open interest, index futue but and sell and net buy or sell. volume and rupees etc sir this will put mental image and fourcast of market so we will then trade what we think becasue of this many information. I think in TA we will see on the chart and indicator which give us full information to tradeing. I think if we gather so many much information we will start fourcast the market and then get confus with out charts and other indicators. This can send us worry and then lose the trade because of confusion. Sir, how do you keep both this thing seperate so you do not get consfuse.
Thank you and best of luck.
I has see this threads from sometime and your other great threads also. I thinkn in this thread you are giving many much information that I think will not require in trading. One side your theaory is to tradein what you see and not trading what you think. So sir, with all this crowd of informnation for FIIDII, open interest, index futue but and sell and net buy or sell. volume and rupees etc sir this will put mental image and fourcast of market so we will then trade what we think becasue of this many information. I think in TA we will see on the chart and indicator which give us full information to tradeing. I think if we gather so many much information we will start fourcast the market and then get confus with out charts and other indicators. This can send us worry and then lose the trade because of confusion. Sir, how do you keep both this thing seperate so you do not get consfuse.
Thank you and best of luck.
Dear Ranger,
I am rephrasing your excellent question.
.
One side our theory is to trade what we see and not trade what we think.
With information on FII,DII, open interest, index future buy,sell and net buy figures,volume etc is used to forecast the market.
Naturally the above info creates conflicts and also acts as a hindrance to our trading.
1) Sir, how do you keep both this inference of analysis separate and trade what you see ?
2) Charts give us full information to trading - Why this kind of analysis is required ?
I am rephrasing your excellent question.
.One side our theory is to trade what we see and not trade what we think.
With information on FII,DII, open interest, index future buy,sell and net buy figures,volume etc is used to forecast the market.
Naturally the above info creates conflicts and also acts as a hindrance to our trading.
1) Sir, how do you keep both this inference of analysis separate and trade what you see ?
2) Charts give us full information to trading - Why this kind of analysis is required ?
Thank you Jagankris for put the question nicely. I do trading on seeing the chart and indicator only and not follow any other news or information. I am not a big or greatast trader like Linkon sir and other big fellows here but I am consistantly profit every month in small amount by neutrle option trading which I learn here in this forrum.
Thanks and best of luck.
Thanks and best of luck.
Dear Ranger,
I am rephrasing your excellent question..
One side our theory is to trade what we see and not trade what we think.
With information on FII,DII, open interest, index future buy,sell and net buy figures,volume etc is used to forecast the market.
Naturally the above info creates conflicts and also acts as a hindrance to our trading.
1) Sir, how do you keep both this inference of analysis separate and trade what you see ?
2) Charts give us full information to trading - Why this kind of analysis is required ?
I am rephrasing your excellent question.
.One side our theory is to trade what we see and not trade what we think.
With information on FII,DII, open interest, index future buy,sell and net buy figures,volume etc is used to forecast the market.
Naturally the above info creates conflicts and also acts as a hindrance to our trading.
1) Sir, how do you keep both this inference of analysis separate and trade what you see ?
2) Charts give us full information to trading - Why this kind of analysis is required ?
Lets go back to basics...
# Market trends have three phases
Dow Theory asserts that major market trends are composed of three phases: an accumulation phase, a public participation phase, and a distribution phase.
The accumulation phase (phase 1) is a period when investors "in the know" are actively buying (selling) stock against the general opinion of the market. During this phase, the stock price does not change much because these investors are in the minority absorbing (releasing) stock that the market at large is supplying (demanding).
Eventually, the market catches on to these astute investors and a rapid price change occurs (phase 2). This occurs when trend followers and other technically oriented investors participate.
This phase continues until rampant speculation occurs. At this point, the astute investors begin to distribute their holdings to the market (phase 3).
Now what we see on our chart is what the big players want to show us on the chart. The big players need to keep the chart bullish so that they can distribute and likewise they need to keep the chart bearish so that they can accumulate.
Intraday traders have to exit their positions by the end of the day and this limits their role to mere middlemen who just facilitate the auction process and provide the volume so that they can take positions while we act as punching bags.
After all, its a zero sum game and our loss is their gain.
Now question remains, how do we benefit from such analysis without hampering what we see. Lets take today's example...
5700 put has the highest OI and when we were testing that level intraday, the OI on 5700 put was rising. It was an indication that smart money is just pocketing the premium and are in no mood to exit their short positions on that strike price. Technically, we are supposed to look at the chart and find reasons to exit our shorts. Since chart was still bearish, we avoid longs and look for signals at higher level to enter short again.
Another example in the recent days, is the massive up move on 13th of this month. While technically, it was very bullish and had changed the trend on daily time frame, there was very little inflow from the FII or DII. It was just a portfolio shuffling that ensured that they exited the non liquid stocks and entered the liquid index stocks. The net inflow into the market was just 25 cr. This helped them to build shorts by buying stock options (puts) and short stock options (calls). The next 2 days, the outflow was heavy from their end....
Jagan / Ranger, I am trying to answer your doubt by adding my views on it (I am sure linkon will also post his view sometime later).
What is being described here by fii/dii/value areas/ OI etc is not trading signals but the content for getting the bigger picutre of the market. By knowing this, trader is well positioned to benefit from the big Tides. You are absolutely correct in terms of trading what you see on the chart. And please stick to this rule for risking your money. By doing that, you can certainly make living from market. But in order to make big money, i.e. to bigger trend.. you need to go beyond the bars and indicators. We need to keep searching for opportunities and at the same time protect us from the sharks in the market. These sharks know TA and chart reading very well and their edge is that they can manipulate the chart to trap small fishes. We have to protect ourselves from their game. Unfortunately, standard chart reading doesn't help much there otherwise, you wouldn't have so much of dicusssion on forum about how to identify sideway market, where to place our stop, what filter to use etc.
By knowing this kind of info, you might gain an edge on that front. Lets take it with a pinch of salt, if you can't use this input from Linkon in decision making than read it and ignore it (like as a trader, we ignore so much of info that is bombarded on us).
Some time what Linkon mentions here is just the repeat of data/facts which doesn't help much [sorry linkon] (like daily net buy/sell of fii/dii is no more than 1 single bar of a chart. As a trader we want to see more than a bar ie. the trend in that).. but many a time, he gives good input like value areas on higher timeframe, what is the trend of big money, are they taking contrarian position in F&O while fooling people in spot, whether move in mkt is supported by many stocks or it is just manipulation by the move in few big counters..
This is how you can develop your sense for market, by observing the internals. At some stage in your career, you will mature to develop some type of trading signals or atleast trading setups based on it.
In my trading journey, at some stage, I did move into looking into smart money, F&O action, intermarket movements, bigger trend developing in society/demography etc. And I am find the advantage of it in terms of getting ahead of the crowd and gradually building up the position.
If you study the successful traders who made great trades (GBP trader of Soros, Rogers call on commodities, Paulson's bet on subprime and currently on Gold, Chanos on china), they did not wait for chart to give them signal..but they got the signal from somewhere else and found the ways to benefit from the opportunity.
Hope this helps.
Happy Trading
What is being described here by fii/dii/value areas/ OI etc is not trading signals but the content for getting the bigger picutre of the market. By knowing this, trader is well positioned to benefit from the big Tides. You are absolutely correct in terms of trading what you see on the chart. And please stick to this rule for risking your money. By doing that, you can certainly make living from market. But in order to make big money, i.e. to bigger trend.. you need to go beyond the bars and indicators. We need to keep searching for opportunities and at the same time protect us from the sharks in the market. These sharks know TA and chart reading very well and their edge is that they can manipulate the chart to trap small fishes. We have to protect ourselves from their game. Unfortunately, standard chart reading doesn't help much there otherwise, you wouldn't have so much of dicusssion on forum about how to identify sideway market, where to place our stop, what filter to use etc.
By knowing this kind of info, you might gain an edge on that front. Lets take it with a pinch of salt, if you can't use this input from Linkon in decision making than read it and ignore it (like as a trader, we ignore so much of info that is bombarded on us).
Some time what Linkon mentions here is just the repeat of data/facts which doesn't help much [sorry linkon] (like daily net buy/sell of fii/dii is no more than 1 single bar of a chart. As a trader we want to see more than a bar ie. the trend in that).. but many a time, he gives good input like value areas on higher timeframe, what is the trend of big money, are they taking contrarian position in F&O while fooling people in spot, whether move in mkt is supported by many stocks or it is just manipulation by the move in few big counters..
This is how you can develop your sense for market, by observing the internals. At some stage in your career, you will mature to develop some type of trading signals or atleast trading setups based on it.
In my trading journey, at some stage, I did move into looking into smart money, F&O action, intermarket movements, bigger trend developing in society/demography etc. And I am find the advantage of it in terms of getting ahead of the crowd and gradually building up the position.
If you study the successful traders who made great trades (GBP trader of Soros, Rogers call on commodities, Paulson's bet on subprime and currently on Gold, Chanos on china), they did not wait for chart to give them signal..but they got the signal from somewhere else and found the ways to benefit from the opportunity.
Hope this helps.
Happy Trading
Well, I said "They are playing for a 5784" - it never is a prediction - if it sounded like that, my mistake. My point at that time was - A fall is expected today by all retailers - and FII will not allow that - at the same time, according to you, they will not allow 5784 to be crossed - so I simply was stating that they will make it a range bound day - with a positive bias - so that they can eat the premium of 5700 PE for a day and... more importantly eat retailers shorts - and... create a feeling of 200SMA holding... At the same time let the index not run away beyond 5784. And... sell much more at higher values.
After observing todays pattern, looks like they have been successful - and I hope I am not entirely incorrect. Ofcourse, it might be just a chance that my guess went right - but isn't it the same that anyone trading has to do?
After observing todays pattern, looks like they have been successful - and I hope I am not entirely incorrect. Ofcourse, it might be just a chance that my guess went right - but isn't it the same that anyone trading has to do?
Fundamentals have been around for ages .. yet you see only few who consistently beat the market .. does it mean fundamentals don't work? It means some who are successful know how to do it the right way ... Same logic applies for technicals as well .. There are few things which are never released anywhere and hence every trader who becomes successful helps others indirectly but never reveals what exact setups/systems he uses. Reason? Reason is that market is a function of information asymmetry. If everyone knows something, then that has no value. So If Big investors see where certain levels are, they might/might not manipulate it to their advantage. But if you are seeing markets/stocks through something which is not in the open, then you stand a very good chance to profit.
Ultimately markets are about what you believe it to be. Your belief drives the profit. I don't believe that charts are doctored and this may be contrary to what some good traders think here, but still they earn what they earn with their belief and I earn what I earn with my belief. So, who is right? The answer is none. When I believe in something, I make my decision system around it and hence though it may contradict someone's else's belief, it has no barrings on my returns.
When you guys think about making it to the next level, you have to understand what you believe in. When you find an answer to that, you will know how to go about it. Mentors might help you to reach that stage, but the cobwebs in your head can only be sorted by you. This is where majority of traders fail. First, they don't understand what they believe and second they don't know how to sort their mental blockages. By concentrating solely on charts, you can catch unbelievable moves, but you must know what you are looking at and you need a broad market framework to understand what is going on. Its true that charts say everything, but one needs "something innovative, something simple" to understand what is being conveyed. By trading patterns/systems etc, one will always remain a small player. But by incorporating the bigger picture/trends in form of charts, you can achieve what others have achieved by different means.
As I said, ultimately it's about what you believe.
Tc
Ultimately markets are about what you believe it to be. Your belief drives the profit. I don't believe that charts are doctored and this may be contrary to what some good traders think here, but still they earn what they earn with their belief and I earn what I earn with my belief. So, who is right? The answer is none. When I believe in something, I make my decision system around it and hence though it may contradict someone's else's belief, it has no barrings on my returns.
When you guys think about making it to the next level, you have to understand what you believe in. When you find an answer to that, you will know how to go about it. Mentors might help you to reach that stage, but the cobwebs in your head can only be sorted by you. This is where majority of traders fail. First, they don't understand what they believe and second they don't know how to sort their mental blockages. By concentrating solely on charts, you can catch unbelievable moves, but you must know what you are looking at and you need a broad market framework to understand what is going on. Its true that charts say everything, but one needs "something innovative, something simple" to understand what is being conveyed. By trading patterns/systems etc, one will always remain a small player. But by incorporating the bigger picture/trends in form of charts, you can achieve what others have achieved by different means.
As I said, ultimately it's about what you believe.
Tc
1693 was the net inflow today from the fii and DII put in 208 cr on the cash segment.
Just when we feel the liquidity is missing in action, it comes in floods....
Changes the whole outlook every alternate day....
On the derivative segment, they remained sellers, but the managed to reduce their number of contracts held while keeping the net value intact...
One thing is for sure... 5700 wont be broken easily... if FII keeps pouring money like this....
Just when we feel the liquidity is missing in action, it comes in floods....
Changes the whole outlook every alternate day....
On the derivative segment, they remained sellers, but the managed to reduce their number of contracts held while keeping the net value intact...
One thing is for sure... 5700 wont be broken easily... if FII keeps pouring money like this....
My two bits on the discussion:
As per Technical Analysis price incorporates everything.
So we use lots of indicators and oscillators, averages and stuff.
But there comes a time when they stop working. A time when they grow old.
Not pertaining to a psychology of a trader but a time when every second trade you are stopped out.
Then we start learning new indicators and oscillators with all swanky names.
But the same goes with them too!
At this juncture one should understand that markets will always keep evolving,
so to keep up with it you have too.
There are no indicators or charts available(if u want to, u will have to graph them yourselves) for FII and DII buy and/or sell figures.
It just helps in higher in depth knowledge.
Todays example: Nifty Futures if anyone would have traded for 10-20 points would have gotten 4-5 trades.
And on other higher time frames it was just a consolidation.
U have to choose whether you want to look at a larger picture of just be happy with the scalps..
Believe me if when a trader starts becoming happy with these type of scalps, his end is near.
So this is just a move to get closer to knowing how stuff is actually working.
Information overload is dangerous, so is lack of information.
Its upto you how to use it for your optimum benefit. Take the juice and throw away the pulp.
:thumb:
As per Technical Analysis price incorporates everything.
So we use lots of indicators and oscillators, averages and stuff.
But there comes a time when they stop working. A time when they grow old.
Not pertaining to a psychology of a trader but a time when every second trade you are stopped out.
Then we start learning new indicators and oscillators with all swanky names.
But the same goes with them too!
At this juncture one should understand that markets will always keep evolving,
so to keep up with it you have too.
There are no indicators or charts available(if u want to, u will have to graph them yourselves) for FII and DII buy and/or sell figures.
It just helps in higher in depth knowledge.
Todays example: Nifty Futures if anyone would have traded for 10-20 points would have gotten 4-5 trades.
And on other higher time frames it was just a consolidation.
U have to choose whether you want to look at a larger picture of just be happy with the scalps..
Believe me if when a trader starts becoming happy with these type of scalps, his end is near.
So this is just a move to get closer to knowing how stuff is actually working.
Information overload is dangerous, so is lack of information.
Its upto you how to use it for your optimum benefit. Take the juice and throw away the pulp.
:thumb:
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