Patterns and Technicals

[DWeeP]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

^ As u already say, there is no holy grail sure shot method, a probability of making money in 7 out of 10 times is very good. and surely, there is always room for improvement.

waiting for ur XLS, kamlesh.

 

[nagendra_gb]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

Today i have brought longs again ... today we saw typical situation at 3 15. There were huge sellers and huge buyers. Exactly at 3:20 sellers down drastically and price went up ..
i feel that this is the confirmation.. tomorrow i feel markets will open gap up ..

 

[nagendra_gb]

Re: A novice......

Can anybody say....basing on this method, what would have been the strategy on 17th Nov?, In my opinion buy.......then on 18th nov08, i would have incurred loss.....in my opinion too many dependent variables of a single function which are correlated.....no holy grail method.....but nice idea, since all professionals take decision during the last 30 minutes of the market, swing trade sort of......best of luck...we can still refine our method, which seems promising once we hedge ourselves to losses

On 17th i don't think there was clear direction. I usually take decision based on volumes as well.. at 3 25 or so if buyers are 2 times more than sellers then will go for long and vice versa. When in doubt i hedge it with suitable option writings.

 

[pkamalesh]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

Today i have brought longs again ... today we saw typical situation at 3 15. There were huge sellers and huge buyers. Exactly at 3:20 sellers down drastically and price went up ..
i feel that this is the confirmation.. tomorrow i feel markets will open gap up ..

Nagendra...dont u think it was more of a short covering rally rather than genuine buying???i felt that only after seeing that nifty closed at -81 points...but when i was seeing the screen at close it was only - 65...where from did those 17 points drop from???i feel there was a short covering rally and fresh shorts in 1 minute...not sure but i feel so...esp when dow futures was 116 down there seems to be a impossibility of genuine buying with every one talking about the oct lows...

 

[nagendra_gb]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

Kamalesh... when every one are talking about october lows why did people cover shorts ???
adding to this i was seeing dec put of 2500 there were huge huge sellers from starting and all calls 2600+ more buyers which i think is people are booking profits in calls(who has written earlier) and writing puts. And as i see markets closed at day high .. if it is short covering then nifty should have traded in significant premium also(just my assumption). As i write this DOW is just 36 points down now..

 

[VJAY]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

Hi friends...sorry for the delay...Found some more points to add and get the nod from you guys here..just have a look..


For many here the stop loss version would have been the most disturbing one because of the extent of gap that we might get the next day...

For this i just thought we could convert another sister method on the same lines...In this we would define 3 specific times say 10 am , 12.30 pm and 3 pm...We would now do the same calculations and go as per the stratergy....i have been experimenting with this the whole of last week as promised to AW sir and karnani sir...The problem is i cannot display the back testing because of really hectic work at college..so just have the results on the paper..promise to convrt them into XLS as soon as possible..plzz excuse me...And plzzz remember this strategy was tested by me in mostly volatile markets( the past 10 days)..the effect of this when nifty moves sideways is yet to be seen...Good luck..

PS: Just thought to add up somethin new for the intraday guys...

Hai,
this method successfully trading in Ghosh sir's option trading thread.

Regards
VJAY

 

[pkamalesh]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

Hi guys...long time.....don wanna dry up my first thread...though all of us must admit that this sytem works..ther are some new ideas based on various methods used in our traderji..

A few ideas related to our system...

1. From Ghosh sirs options thread...We can divide the time frames for the day say at 10, 12 and 3....Then follow the system as per rules...

2. From saint sir's miniflow..though not the miniflow method..

Here we take the 5 min chart of NF...Now this is something very fast...we change the position as per the 5 min bar close...same rules apply....if the closing was more than 70 % of the diff between high and low buy and sell for vice versa....quite effective..

Have been checking the above method esp the saint sir method for this system..seems to work..will post todays 5 min chart if possible...

 

[pkamalesh]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

 

[pkamalesh]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

An importqant thing that we need to observe here is tht after every 4th or 5th bar there is a certain change in the direction...but when we take the closings of each bar..we make some good points

 

[pkamalesh]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

Guys please check out the back tested sheet from the day we had started using this method...Plzz download the XLS...the dates are from the bottom of the sheet and the last date would be on the top...The result is amazing..and another thing..for things not to be very complicated i have taken the close price only for buying or sellin..there fore the loss or profit would vary a bit from the result displayed..plzz adjust the xls just in case...sorry for the delay..