Pips in wheelbarrow - Trading FX profitably

[amsin21]

You are Right ... according to the rules book ... :clap::clap::clap:

No doubt at all ...

But, all actions do have opposite reaction ... And the speed with which EU feel down ... It will react as well ....

EU is certainly in down trend ... NO DOUBT .. I did mention M TF pointing DOWN ... As much as I do not entertain or trade small pull backs, this pull back can be 150 - 225 pips ... Drive that with tighter SL (Only after Euro open and if this pull back analysis is confirmed in Tokyo session) ... Once the Pull back is over ... Drive it down North ....

And I forgot add something fundamental. -ve NFP from USD will also help Euro to stabilize ... I'm looking @ 1.3200 / 1.3225 / 1.3240 to SHORT again .... From present level of 1.2950 ... it is almost 250 - 320 Pips ...

South or North ... Pips in the wheel barrow is what matters ...

My view is -ve NFP is already absorbed in 5th Sept candle. Will wait & see the opening.

Is there any reason for not tracking volume....just curious.

 

[Galts Gulch]

My view is -ve NFP is already absorbed in 5th Sept candle. Will wait & see the opening.

Is there any reason for not tracking volume....just curious.

Ya. It was big time surprising that the gap was filled in less than 1 hour . But then nothing happened ... Let us see ... tomorrow new day ... Next week ... New week ....

Are you talking about EU volume or ????

 

[amsin21]

Ya. It was big time surprising that the gap was filled in less than 1 hour . But then nothing happened ... Let us see ... tomorrow new day ... Next week ... New week ....

Are you talking about EU volume or ????

No specific pair. Just curious why no volume indicators/histogram on your charts.

There are many occasions volume +/- has guided me to stay in trade even in a short trend reversal or a news reversal in long TF. I'm a firm follower of volume direction and have seen price action follow volume direction.

 

[Galts Gulch]

No specific pair. Just curious why no volume indicators/histogram on your charts.

There are many occasions volume +/- has guided me to stay in trade even in a short trend reversal or a news reversal in long TF. I'm a firm follower of volume direction and have seen price action follow volume direction.

Following volume or PA is just individual preferences ... I use EMA 10 to guide me about patterns ...
And here, I have not yet introduced few Indicators that I use ... Will do that over a period of time ... Once newbies are comfortable with basic FX aspects ...

 

[DSM]

GG, Following up on questions and doubts that remain :

* Is not forex trading illegal in India.? I know there are threads and arguments for and against. My question is : Can an Indian resident trade forex pairs from other than INR related pairs? I guess the workaround is to have an account with an NRI, but US/Canadian/European residents would be subject to tax, and to my mind the only alternative remaining is for a resident Indian to open an account thru a NRI based in the Gulf countries, who enjoy tax free incomes. What are your views? How would Mr. X (not you) go about this?

* What is the minimal/optimal amount required to trade forex. Does USD 1,000 seem to be a reasonable amount to open an account initially.? (This is to trade a single lot, without using leverage)

* 3 pips brokerage is also high. What is the best brokerage an individual trader start with? Are there no discount brokers providing the platform with 1 pip brokerage?

* My query of the winning/loosing trade on a sample of 10 trades was just to get an idea of scratch / losing trades. And this question is still unanswered. I will reframe by asking how many trades on a sample of 100 / 200 trades will be scratch / losing trades.? Just to get a fair idea on forex trading.

Thanks for your time.

 

[Galts Gulch]

GG, Following up on questions and doubts that remain :

* Is not forex trading illegal in India.? I know there are threads and arguments for and against. My question is : Can an Indian resident trade forex pairs from other than INR related pairs? I guess the workaround is to have an account with an NRI, but US/Canadian/European residents would be subject to tax, and to my mind the only alternative remaining is for a resident Indian to open an account thru a NRI based in the Gulf countries, who enjoy tax free incomes. What are your views? How would Mr. X (not you) go about this?

* What is the minimal/optimal amount required to trade forex. Does USD 1,000 seem to be a reasonable amount to open an account initially.? (This is to trade a single lot, without using leverage)

* 3 pips brokerage is also high. What is the best brokerage an individual trader start with? Are there no discount brokers providing the platform with 1 pip brokerage?

* My query of the winning/loosing trade on a sample of 10 trades was just to get an idea of scratch / losing trades. And this question is still unanswered. I will reframe by asking how many trades on a sample of 100 / 200 trades will be scratch / losing trades.? Just to get a fair idea on forex trading.

Thanks for your time.

Yes. According to RBI and FEMA, FX trading is prohibited for resident Indians. That is the Letter Part. Lets us also understand why is it so in spirit. In any other business, when someone loses money, ONLY he / she loses money. But in FX trading, when a trader loses, it is not just Him, who loses, but RBI also loses part of its Forex Reserves (Read USD) and RBI needs FX reserves to pay for all important Imports. Now, who decides what all imports are important for our economy .. How did import of 3G technology help a stupid common man, if not for 3G scam? ... How many rules / regulations of the Land that every one follows that FX is always talked about as if it is some kind of underworld mafia? And why do not any one talk about those FX traders (yours faithfully included, since 5 years), who make profit in FX trading and help in bringing in FX reserves (read USD) ...... Tax in any country is negligible compared to the profit, one earns in FX. If some one can not get an NRI to open an account, then as I had discussed in few of my posts (I'm still waiting for all my threads and posts to be restored, after TJ lifted the ban on my ID), one can use cash deposits or use Angadiya network to fund and withdraw.

If one does not use any Leverage, one has to be a money bag to trade FX. On a 100 leverage account itself, 1 lot trade margin is 1000$. Without any margin, it will be 100,000$ margin / lot . One can open a 1000$ account, though I advice 3000$ account, and trade .1 lot sized trades. On a 100 leveraged account, .1 lot sized trades will be worth 100$ margin and with a 20 - 30% RMS, one can trade 2 trades worth .1 lot.

For smaller account sizes, a trader does not have much to bargain for and therefore standard floating spread will be given, again for major pairs. There are pairs, which has 8 - 12 pip spread, but they will have higher ATR and ADR, on weekly basis. If the spread is not fixed, it is always floating spread and now, spread for EU is 1.8 pips ... It depends on the time, the demand for the pair, liquidity etc. During high volatile NEWS, spread goes up ... And the spread goes up by 1.5 times for Gold and by 2 times for crude oil ..... And Gold and Crude yield better profits as well ....

I did answer the win / loss ratio. Winning % of above 65 is always considered decent and my winning % remains around 75 - 82, out of 100 trades. But, here one has to consider the profit / loss per trade as well. People who do martingale trading loose high, though they might have a better success ratio vis a vis trades, as when they lose, they lose big. In my case the maximum I have lost is 65 pips on a .5 lot trade and I do not lose more than 15 pips on a 10 (losing) trades average, but make more than 40 pips on the same 10 (profit making) trades' average ....and due to scale in strategy that I use, most of my winning trades yield higher profit ...

 

[Galts Gulch]

And 3 Pip spread is nothing ... Compared to the movement that the currency market generates .... And as I mentioned, nothing else ... No service tax, no CTT, No education cess ...
And during previous Govt regime ... There were rumors that the Indian Brokers lobby against permitting FX trading for retailers ... as they were scared that most of the traders might switch over to FX ... looking at the various advantages ... Not sure if it is true ...

 

[amsin21]

If the spread is not fixed, it is always floating spread and now, spread for EU is 1.8 pips

It is always better to open the ECN/DMA (spread : 0 - 0.3) instead of MM (spread : 0.9 - 3) account. One can avail cash rebates directly in their account through rebate firms like Cashbackforex to cut down the trade expenses.

 

[Galts Gulch]

It is always better to open the ECN/DMA (spread : 0 - 0.3) instead of MM (spread : 0.9 - 3) account. One can avail cash rebates directly in their account through rebate firms like Cashbackforex to cut down the trade expenses.

Market Makers (MM) are completely ruled out ... Irrespective of the spread ...
And Spread from the Bank/s to Broker/s being .5 - .8 pips, I dn't honestly know how any broker/s can offer spread lesser than 1 pip

 

[amsin21]

Market Makers (MM) are completely ruled out ... Irrespective of the spread ...
And Spread from the Bank/s to Broker/s being .5 - .8 pips, I dn't honestly know how any broker/s can offer spread lesser than 1 pip

If the trader is on ECN/DMA, the trade happens directly between Interbank and retail trader through retail ECN. So the spread part is taken out of the scene,so even 0 spread we will get. But a descent commission ($5 - $7)is charged by the brokers for using their ECN. Because of this commission, traders open a/c through rebate firms like Cashbackforex. This is my understanding. Just my few cents.