Dear S'72,
You are in a situation, where you want to hear what your mind wants you to hear.
There is a difference in want and know. Just the mental frame in which we are to predict the future. Just enough difference to make or break the game. You want it to happen (desperation) and I know it will happen (confidence).
The reason for difference in want and know is simple, how much it at stake? My positions may be grossly large/small than yours but the proportion of my stake to my overall portfolio is small for such directional overnight positions.
Hence even if my 'know will happen' is wrong, I am still a game for some other day, but if the 'want to happen' is wrong, you are gone.
Regards,