Anant/SG
I have 2 queries on Aban - please see chart below
In the pink circle why are we going long when 50 EMA is within cluster of wilder's MAs whereas earlier we didn't go long?
In the orange circle why dont we have another long entry?
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/546/ttaban.png/
Hi TT,
SG has answered your queries. I would like to add a little bit more, especially for the first one.
We did not take the trade earlier but later we went long when the EMA50 was inside the cluster. The reason is in understanding the cross-over of the averages and the slope with which they are progressing. When a long candle appears the short period MA is affected more and shows a cross-over with a much sharper slope. But longer period MAs show a clear cross-over and a sharper movement only if the price has been rising steadily for a little longer time in the past.
If you see the ABAN chart, when the Long was triggered on Oct 18, the EMA50 was outside the cluster of Wilders MAs, but it was flat. Therefore, we did not enter. When EMA50 started moving up, it had entered inside the cluster. So, No Entry till it comes out of the cluster (either above or below the cluster). If you see the slope of EMA50 when it entered the cluster the slope was slightly upwards (because the previous few candles did not show much movement in price) which means it would take longer time to come out of the cluster. Therefore, we did not enter and waited for the EMA50 to come out of the cluster. When it came out of the cluster the Wilders MAs had reversed and triggered a Short.
When a Buy was triggered on 11 Jan, (in the area you marked with Red circle) the later candles did not take out the High of previous candle, so no Entry. When the candle of 16 Jan took out the High of previous candle, the conditions were right for the Entry but EMA50 was inside the cluster. But its slope was quite good and we could expect it to come out of the cluster within a day or two. This expectation is due to the fact that the price was rising continuously for previous several days which will push the wilders MAs faster and the EMA would come out of the cluster. Therefore, a Long entry was taken. As you can see on the chart the EMA50 remained inside the cluster only for two more days.
Therefore, it is not only important to have the MAs and EMAs cross over and create a trigger, it is also important to look at the way the prices were moving prior to the trigger. Usually, if earlier prices are moving with reasonably good slope in the direction of the trigger they will support the trigger unless something suddenly affects the prices seriously.
-Anant