SH's 315 Strategy - how to use if effectively

[Tradewithhunter]

Dear SH,
Greetings..

On 6th of April candle is not touching 3 EMA, hope we have exited there kindly comment.

Yes absolutely correct.

Cheers
SH

 

[niftylover]

aila nifty 3-15 ema crossover on daily chart bhai logo.

 

[Rajeevji]

Hello SH,

Thanks for highlighting 315 Strategy.

We are doing a rough backtesting on 315 and 534 (suggested by you to Arti). The tests cover last 6 years, which had lots of trending periods.

Tests are "rough" because we have : Not used "Add" as explained by you, [ii] Entered the trade on next day at average price, i.e. the next day after the crossover happens on EOD [iii] Have used Nifty Spot, [iv] Initial Stop Loss of 3.5%.

With the above assumptions, we found that it is better to stick to "long only" strategy. In certain periods 534 would give a higher profit. It appears to us that when used in derivatives, each of them can potentially give more profits than "Buy & Hold".

My queries are on practical implementation:

In your experience, do you find / think that 315 is easier to implement than 534 or say 520?

[ii] Is there a good trailing stop loss method one could use with 'Long Only"?

[iii] Do you find that overall shorting (=Stop & Reverse) has been profitable over several years?

[iv] What could be the problem with the type of shroting we have assumed?

regards

Rajeev

PS: I am new to derivatives!

 

[sherbaaz]

Hi All,

Not an active memeber here but i keep reading this thread. Quite a workable and profit making set up. Its not possible to have it 100% in one's favour.
I have been using it as one of my trade set ups and it does give good results but I dont use it on stand alone basis i use it with some other indicators like rsi or sts along with divergence & pivot points.

Regds,
be the prey or the predator choice is your(s).:gun2:

 

[Tradewithhunter]

aila nifty 3-15 ema crossover on daily chart bhai logo.

Yeah - it was bearish crossover at 5263 and whoever took the short based on 315 rules should have made 70 points at the open today at 5193. :thumb:

Right now 3 EMA is at 5239 so a trader can:

1. Book profits and enter again on 3 EMA kiss or
2. Let the position run with a trailing stop loss of 5210. If trailing SL hit, wait for 3 EMA kiss and re-enter shorts.

Cheers
SH

 

[Tradewithhunter]

Hello SH,

Thanks for highlighting 315 Strategy.

We are doing a rough backtesting on 315 and 534 (suggested by you to Arti). The tests cover last 6 years, which had lots of trending periods.

Tests are "rough" because we have : Not used "Add" as explained by you, [ii] Entered the trade on next day at average price, i.e. the next day after the crossover happens on EOD [iii] Have used Nifty Spot, [iv] Initial Stop Loss of 3.5%.

With the above assumptions, we found that it is better to stick to "long only" strategy. In certain periods 534 would give a higher profit. It appears to us that when used in derivatives, each of them can potentially give more profits than "Buy & Hold".

My queries are on practical implementation:

In your experience, do you find / think that 315 is easier to implement than 534 or say 520?

[ii] Is there a good trailing stop loss method one could use with 'Long Only"?

[iii] Do you find that overall shorting (=Stop & Reverse) has been profitable over several years?

[iv] What could be the problem with the type of shroting we have assumed?

regards

Rajeev

PS: I am new to derivatives!

Rajeev - last 6 years data means from 2004.

Equity markets have been in a secular bull market since 2004 to now (except 2008) hence you will obviously see 'long only' trades doing better on an average.

However, if you were to pick only 2008, you will see 'short only' trades doing better.

It all depends on what time period you pick, I would advise you pick from 1995 till date for a balanced view.

Hindsight is a beautiful thing, however future is uncertain, so I take every signal .. you never know if the next short signal will create another 2008 !

Cheers
SH

 

[saivenkat]

Yeah - it was bearish crossover at 5263 and whoever took the short based on 315 rules should have made 70 points at the open today at 5193. :thumb:

Right now 3 EMA is at 5239 so a trader can:

1. Book profits and enter again on 3 EMA kiss or
2. Let the position run with a trailing stop loss of 5210. If trailing SL hit, wait for 3 EMA kiss and re-enter shorts.

Cheers
SH

I was recollecting about what i learnt in this thread when the market opened today morning, and as something in me said to book profits, at 5190 levels.

After that,i logged on to TJ to see, any updates, about nifty.. and found that Master SH, has delivered what i did..

I am planning to re-enter shorts at 5260 levels again, SH sir.Is it correct?

Thanks
Saivenkat

 

[SwingKing]

I was recollecting about what i learnt in this thread when the market opened today morning, and as something in me said to book profits, at 5190 levels.

After that,i logged on to TJ to see, any updates, about nifty.. and found that Master SH, has delivered what i did..

I am planning to re-enter shorts at 5260 levels again, SH sir.Is it correct?

Thanks
Saivenkat

The question you have to ask yourself is " Will you see 5260 again in a couple of days " ? If not, then you might well see 5260 when the "Environment" for shorting indeed passes by. Technical reversal signals have occurred insync this time all over the world. Such signals are very strong and usually market's don't retrace the levels you have written in this scenario (atleast in a couple of days).

Tc.

 

[AlokTewari]

Raunakji

We are into results season & one or two above expectation results in heavyweights will swing the tide again. If technical indicators can turn from highly bullish to highly bearish in matter of 2 to 3 trading days, it can happen other way round too in double quick time. Technical indicators are result of market action & not otherway round.

Cheers !!!!

Alok Tewari

 

[Tradewithhunter]

I was recollecting about what i learnt in this thread when the market opened today morning, and as something in me said to book profits, at 5190 levels.

After that,i logged on to TJ to see, any updates, about nifty.. and found that Master SH, has delivered what i did..

I am planning to re-enter shorts at 5260 levels again, SH sir.Is it correct?

Thanks
Saivenkat

Dear Saivenkat - I will re-enter on 3 EMA touch .... since 3 EMA keeps moving, its tough to state a level.. but I will short at 5230-5240 levels if at all those levels come.

Otherwise 3 EMA will come down and I will enter shorts at whatever levels markets are at when that happens.

Cheers
SH