SH's 315 Strategy - how to use if effectively

F&O Crossover : 07-Jun-2010
F&O Crossover as on 07-Jun-2010

Entry date Scrip Action Reason Entry Price Stop Loss
07-Jun-2010 DLF SELL 315 -Cross 264.00 270.60
07-Jun-2010 HDFC SELL 315 -Cross 2682.00 2749.05
07-Jun-2010 HDFC SELL 534 -Cross 2682.00 2749.05
07-Jun-2010 HDFCBANK SELL 315 -Cross 1865.00 1911.63
07-Jun-2010 HDIL SELL 315 -Cross 223.30 228.88
07-Jun-2010 IDBI SELL 315 -Cross 111.85 114.65
07-Jun-2010 RELIANCE SELL 315 -Cross 1011.45 1036.74
07-Jun-2010 SESAGOA SELL 315 -Cross 343.35 351.93
dear tmnkin...how u arrived at Stop loss figures bcoz in crossovers system..SL's can not be pre-calculated...reveal your method please..
Vikas :)
 
dear tmnkin...how u arrived at Stop loss figures bcoz in crossovers system..SL's can not be pre-calculated...reveal your method please..
Vikas :)
hi vikas, i am just using 2.5% as stoploss, no calculation involved, i assume 2.5% is the max loss i can bear with a trade, i arrived this value using 315 back test avg loss 2.7% avg profit 4.3% for the period 2008Jan-2010Jan.

so i pre assume my max loss as 2.5%
 

rrmhatre72

Well-Known Member
Hi Bandlab/Ankit - Sorry for the delay in responding to all your posts and putting my rules here. I just wanted to leave the strategy here for people to digest the 'concept' first before i put forward my money management and other system details.

Its great to see you guys have done some chart reading. Bandlab, great that you have tested it on some intraday time frames as well.

Coming back to my rules... I will talk about Entries, position sizing, pyramiding and Exits (yes, its not always in a trade method) !!

BUT FIRST OF ALL, PLS APPLY 315 TO EOD ... believe me i have thought (and tried) applying 315 to intraday but success ratio is too low. 315 is for traders to trade less and make more money.

Coming to rules....

Entries

Entries are simple, you wait for a candle to close above 15 EMA, next candle to open and see if 3 EMA is above 15 EMA or not. If the answer is 'Yes' you go long. For shorts you need an exact opposite setup.

Position Sizing

Since in this system SL cannot be defined as a 'level' your initial position sizing has to be small. Depending on the trading capital, you dont want to put more than 25% capital which you want to put in this trade in as the first trade i.e assume if you can trade a total of 4 lots max, you will start with 1 lot. Rest 3 lots we will add later as our position moves into profit.

Pyramiding

Pyramiding or 'adds' are obviosly done once our position has 'swung' into profits. The rule is we add when the markets correct after a swing, price comes and touched 15 EMA again (but 3 EMA hasnt crossed over). This means that we add very close to our SAR hence keeps the risk small and also ensures that even if SAR is triggered we still end up in net profits (since our initial position is in profits hopefully now).

Exits

Yes, we do exit at certain points even when our SAR is not hit. These exit points are obviously when our position is suddenly in deep profits becuase of an extreme rally or crash in our favour. The exit points are where you find our 'current' EOD candle is not touching 3 EMA at all. On this candle, we book profits and wait for markets to correct back and touch 3 EMA again. As soon as 3 EMA is touched we jump back into our initiaal position. So in a way we stay with our position, we just exit it once and get back in after a small correction.

I would let you guys analyse, examine and apply these rules to some of the trades which you have identified. I am also posting an NF chart below showing entries, Pyramids or 'adds', Exit and jump back in and finally SAR.

Please do post any questions you have here.

In the end, I would try and touch the most important piece which is 'how to protect capital from whipsaws' .. but thats later.....

NF Chart in next post below.

Cheers,
SH:thumb:
Hi Tradewithhunter,

Too good logic & explained very nicely.
One basic question. What is SAR?
 

rrmhatre72

Well-Known Member
Hi Karthik - I am glad that you like the strategy, hope it helps you too for your positional trading.

Coming to your questions, though i do not trade CAIRN but I will try and answer your questions based on 315. However first of all you will need a charting software that would provide you real time EOD charts (including current day's candle) along with EMAs.

1. Entry would be at around closing time around 202 since at that point your charts will tell you bullish crossover is complete and confirmed.

2. Initially SL is a bearish crossover of EMAs. However I believe that once I have enough M2M profits i would not want to take a loss later on that position. For myself, I have defined enough as 3% for Nifty, for stocks its slightly higher i.e 5%. Once i get this favourable move, I would put SL at my entry point so that if markets reverse atleast I would not have to bear any loss. In this case if we long at 202 and Cairn touches 212 (which it did on 07/05/2009) I would have put my trailing SL to 202 immediately. Apparently this SL would have got hit on 12/05/09.

For re-entry, I would re-enter on when previous days highs are breached and again wait for my position to move 5% above my entry point before i put a trailing SL. Here in this case, on 13/05/09 Cairn breached previous days high (212.45) hence I would have longed at 212.50 again. NOw we would put a trailing SL only once our position moves to 223 (5% up) otherwise we will hold until bearish crossover is completed. apprently 223 gets hit on 18/05/2009 and immediately next day SL (212.50 our entry point) is taken out on 19/05/09 leaving us empty handed again. We again wait for re-entry (previous day high breach) which happens on 21/05/2009 and we long at 232.50 .. and then rest is history when you exit at 270 odd levels as shown on your charts.

Please note : Putting trailing SLs is for conservative traders like me, high risk takers can forget about trailing SLs for higher returns like in this case had we not put trailing SLs we would have held onto longs from 202 to 270 (instead of 232.50 to 270)

3. This has to be known same day at open price and thats why you need the real time EOD candle.

Hope tihs helps, please do not hesitate in asking if you still have any doubts.

Cheers
SH
Hi,

One more query...
Which charting software do you reccomend?
 
F&O Crossover as on 08-Jun-2010

Entry date Scrip Action Reason Entry Price Stop Loss
08-Jun-2010 BHARTIARTL SELL 315 -Cross 259.35 265.83
08-Jun-2010 ESSAROIL SELL 315 -Cross 122.55 125.61
08-Jun-2010 IDFC BUY 534 +Cross 160.70 156.68
08-Jun-2010 MINIFTY SELL 315 -Cross 4965.05 5089.18
08-Jun-2010 NIFTY SELL 315 -Cross 4964.00 5088.10
08-Jun-2010 NTPC SELL 315 -Cross 199.75 204.74
 

rrmhatre72

Well-Known Member
F&O Crossover as on 08-Jun-2010

Entry date Scrip Action Reason Entry Price Stop Loss
08-Jun-2010 BHARTIARTL SELL 315 -Cross 259.35 265.83
08-Jun-2010 ESSAROIL SELL 315 -Cross 122.55 125.61
08-Jun-2010 IDFC BUY 534 +Cross 160.70 156.68
08-Jun-2010 MINIFTY SELL 315 -Cross 4965.05 5089.18
08-Jun-2010 NIFTY SELL 315 -Cross 4964.00 5088.10
08-Jun-2010 NTPC SELL 315 -Cross 199.75 204.74
Hi TMNKIN,

Pls share Nifty & Bharti graphs if you can.
 

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