SH's 315 Strategy - how to use if effectively

[Tradewithhunter]

Dear 315 traders,

Markets closed at 5381 today, thats around 400 points profit till now with another ADD in 5620 range which is also in 240 points profit.

Enjoy the trend till it ends !!

Perosnally, I start scaling out gradually after a 7%-10% move in favour of the 315 positions. So tomorrow I might book 50% of shorts if it falls further and lock in some profits.

Cheers
SH

Cheers
SH

Markets at 5351 right now .... around 430 points profit on original lot ...... I have booked 50% today ... just holding the rest 50%.

Over the last 3 years of me trading 315, I have observed one thing on charts as well as on my ledger. This is something I have shared in the past as well i.e the cyclical nature of the market.

It means that every trend is followed by a rangebound market and every range is followed by a trend..... we hardly get a trending move immediately after a trending move and ranges do not continue forever. This is why we dont see a lot of 'V' shaped patterns on EOD charts.

A desciplined trader needs to stick to the system however also needs to adjust to the cycles and vary his trade sizes accordingly. I have been trying to proactively anticipate these cycles for last 1 year and now can share my 'sizing' strategy to the 315 traders here for their assessment and application.

My original strategy said that each trade needs to have equal trade size (Though in the past I kind of leaked my strategy by taking double trade quantity after 3 whips).

My 'amended' position size strategy is below.

After a good trending move is over (a move exceeding 5% and above excursion in favour of the 315 trade):

1. Take 50% of normal trade size on the next crossover .. there is a 'high' chance that this crossover will be a fake. A conservative trader can also decide to skip this crossover completely or take an small positions in options.

2. Take 50% of normal trade size in futures if the above crossover fails. This means that we are back in the bigger trend and hence the chances of a whip are relatively moderate.

3. Take normal trade size if the above crossover also fails. This means that markets have gone into some sort of range and a new trend is about to begin.

4. Take 200% of normal trade size as in rare scenarios, the 3rd crossover also might fail. This happened with us once recently. This means the markets have gone into a prolonged range and hence the start of a new trend is imminent.

By adjusting the position sizing, we will be losing less during whips and earn more with trends. Do backtest the same and post your comments/queries.

Cheers
SH

 

[anuragjais]

Markets at 5351 right now .... around 430 points profit on original lot ...... I have booked 50% today ... just holding the rest 50%.

Over the last 3 years of me trading 315, I have observed one thing on charts as well as on my ledger. This is something I have shared in the past as well i.e the cyclical nature of the market.

It means that every trend is followed by a rangebound market and every range is followed by a trend..... we hardly get a trending move immediately after a trending move and ranges do not continue forever. This is why we dont see a lot of 'V' shaped patterns on EOD charts.

A desciplined trader needs to stick to the system however also needs to adjust to the cycles and vary his trade sizes accordingly. I have been trying to proactively anticipate these cycles for last 1 year and now can share my 'sizing' strategy to the 315 traders here for their assessment and application.

My original strategy said that each trade needs to have equal trade size (Though in the past I kind of leaked my strategy by taking double trade quantity after 3 whips).

My 'amended' position size strategy is below.

After a good trending move is over (a move exceeding 5% and above excursion in favour of the 315 trade):

1. Take 50% of normal trade size on the next crossover .. there is a 'high' chance that this crossover will be a fake. A conservative trader can also decide to skip this crossover completely or take an small positions in options.

2. Take 50% of normal trade size in futures if the above crossover fails. This means that we are back in the bigger trend and hence the chances of a whip are relatively moderate.

3. Take normal trade size if the above crossover also fails. This means that markets have gone into some sort of range and a new trend is about to begin.

4. Take 200% of normal trade size as in rare scenarios, the 3rd crossover also might fail. This happened with us once recently. This means the markets have gone into a prolonged range and hence the start of a new trend is imminent.

By adjusting the position sizing, we will be losing less during whips and earn more with trends. Do backtest the same and post your comments/queries.

Cheers
SH

Thanks a lot for the update sir. Just 1 doubt. What if our 200% call also fails, what will be our position in th 5th trade then ?? again 200% or we increase it to 400%. This scenario also happend recently. we had 5 fail trades n then a big move.

thanks

 

[msa5678]

Thanks a lot for the update sir. Just 1 doubt. What if our 200% call also fails, what will be our position in th 5th trade then ?? again 200% or we increase it to 400%. This scenario also happend recently. we had 5 fail trades n then a big move.

thanks

I would be taking 200% maximum,
After that whatever happens we
just keep at 200%. That is to say
if we start with 1 lot , then we go
upto 4 lots maximum.

However SH's view will be final.

 

[crusader]

Have a few question:
- When we do an add and if we are trading with 200%, do we add anything more?
- Also combining market prediction strategy and 315, we quit when price is not touching 3 EMA and reverse our positions after 2 days of no touch aiming for 3EMA, do we still do it with 200%?

 

[supremeinfo]

hi SH Sir

I have some problem understanding the exit rule when price not touching 3ema . As you have said to book profit in trade where price not touching 3 ema at open . You have also said previously that you need not wait till 3.25 pm to exit trade when price not touching 3ema. Kindly explain how far the price should open from 3ema to consider booking profits . Many times i have observed that the price touches the 3ema by close and should the signal be taken to re-enter the trade at close of day

 

[Tradewithhunter]

Thanks a lot for the update sir. Just 1 doubt. What if our 200% call also fails, what will be our position in th 5th trade then ?? again 200% or we increase it to 400%. This scenario also happend recently. we had 5 fail trades n then a big move.

thanks

Nope - 200% is the max....please dont try and apply martingale on it. I dont think we have seen 5 consecutive whipsaws... i have just seen 4 .....

Cheers
SH

 

[rrmhatre72]

Markets at 5351 right now .... around 430 points profit on original lot ...... I have booked 50% today ... just holding the rest 50%.

Over the last 3 years of me trading 315, I have observed one thing on charts as well as on my ledger. This is something I have shared in the past as well i.e the cyclical nature of the market.

It means that every trend is followed by a rangebound market and every range is followed by a trend..... we hardly get a trending move immediately after a trending move and ranges do not continue forever. This is why we dont see a lot of 'V' shaped patterns on EOD charts.

A desciplined trader needs to stick to the system however also needs to adjust to the cycles and vary his trade sizes accordingly. I have been trying to proactively anticipate these cycles for last 1 year and now can share my 'sizing' strategy to the 315 traders here for their assessment and application.

My original strategy said that each trade needs to have equal trade size (Though in the past I kind of leaked my strategy by taking double trade quantity after 3 whips).

My 'amended' position size strategy is below.

After a good trending move is over (a move exceeding 5% and above excursion in favour of the 315 trade):

1. Take 50% of normal trade size on the next crossover .. there is a 'high' chance that this crossover will be a fake. A conservative trader can also decide to skip this crossover completely or take an small positions in options.

2. Take 50% of normal trade size in futures if the above crossover fails. This means that we are back in the bigger trend and hence the chances of a whip are relatively moderate.

3. Take normal trade size if the above crossover also fails. This means that markets have gone into some sort of range and a new trend is about to begin.

4. Take 200% of normal trade size as in rare scenarios, the 3rd crossover also might fail. This happened with us once recently. This means the markets have gone into a prolonged range and hence the start of a new trend is imminent.

By adjusting the position sizing, we will be losing less during whips and earn more with trends. Do backtest the same and post your comments/queries.

Cheers
SH

Appreciate if someone can post backtest results as suggested by SH..

 

[bhurasandip]

GM SH,
A Fan of yours,though haven't tried any of your strategies except 100 ema crossover the recent one making me ur fan(2nd or 3rd may). I am in the market since 2 years having lots of negative trade than positive ones b'coz trading without any strategy and plan (just TUKKA Trading). Treating me as a newbee (an ignorant) advice me what should i do/read so that i can trade profitably using ur strategy and understand the basics of market (like trend, sl, open interest etc). Though i read your 315 strategy full but still i feel something missing in basics.
Tried to PM YOU but either it is full or disabled.
Waiting eagerly for YOUR reply.

 

[rh6996]

GM SH,
A Fan of yours,though haven't tried any of your strategies except 100 ema crossover the recent one making me ur fan(2nd or 3rd may). I am in the market since 2 years having lots of negative trade than positive ones b'coz trading without any strategy and plan (just TUKKA Trading). Treating me as a newbee (an ignorant) advice me what should i do/read so that i can trade profitably using ur strategy and understand the basics of market (like trend, sl, open interest etc). Though i read your 315 strategy full but still i feel something missing in basics.
Tried to PM YOU but either it is full or disabled.
Waiting eagerly for YOUR reply.

Post your basic doubts here , many people are too eager to help others even if SH cannot find time to do it!!

 

[rkkarnani]

Yesterday was a perfect example of Exiting a position when price NOT touching 3 EMA. Price opened "almost" at 3 EMA, and closed at almost lowest of the day. I exited at close and still waiting to short again today, would do it in June series hence waiting.