SH's 315 Strategy - how to use if effectively

[anantharaaman]

mano will you send only nf chart because spot/nifty both are different in price so study in nf only put the nf chart pls

 

[galrani]

SH,

Is Crossover taken place and we should enter for long?

Wait till 3:25 and if cross over still confirmed, then enter long
Remember 2 consecutive trades have given good moves, so chances of whipsaw are more with this creossover. So either reduce your long positions or hedge with puts

Cheers and take care

 

[blackberry]

Wait till 3:25 and if cross over still confirmed, then enter long
Remember 2 consecutive trades have given good moves, so chances of whipsaw are more with this creossover. So either reduce your long positions or hedge with puts

Cheers and take care

There are two thing either go long according to 315 or go short according to "fools theory" targeting 15 ema.

 

[NTrader42]

Hello SH,

As last trend gave around 10% i.e. 500 points, So can we ignore OR only 50% quantity in next crossover i.e. as per your post

http://www.traderji.com/technical-a...gy-how-use-if-effectively-299.html#post553963

I was not aware of this post, thanks t4j for giving the link

Markets at 5351 right now .... around 430 points profit on original lot ...... I have booked 50% today ... just holding the rest 50%.

Over the last 3 years of me trading 315, I have observed one thing on charts as well as on my ledger. This is something I have shared in the past as well i.e the cyclical nature of the market.

It means that every trend is followed by a rangebound market and every range is followed by a trend..... we hardly get a trending move immediately after a trending move and ranges do not continue forever. This is why we dont see a lot of 'V' shaped patterns on EOD charts.

A desciplined trader needs to stick to the system however also needs to adjust to the cycles and vary his trade sizes accordingly. I have been trying to proactively anticipate these cycles for last 1 year and now can share my 'sizing' strategy to the 315 traders here for their assessment and application.

My original strategy said that each trade needs to have equal trade size (Though in the past I kind of leaked my strategy by taking double trade quantity after 3 whips).

My 'amended' position size strategy is below.

After a good trending move is over (a move exceeding 5% and above excursion in favour of the 315 trade):

1. Take 50% of normal trade size on the next crossover .. there is a 'high' chance that this crossover will be a fake. A conservative trader can also decide to skip this crossover completely or take an small positions in options.

2. Take 50% of normal trade size in futures if the above crossover fails. This means that we are back in the bigger trend and hence the chances of a whip are relatively moderate.

3. Take normal trade size if the above crossover also fails. This means that markets have gone into some sort of range and a new trend is about to begin.

4. Take 200% of normal trade size as in rare scenarios, the 3rd crossover also might fail. This happened with us once recently. This means the markets have gone into a prolonged range and hence the start of a new trend is imminent.

By adjusting the position sizing, we will be losing less during whips and earn more with trends. Do backtest the same and post your comments/queries.

Cheers
SH

 

[summasumma]

Can somebody tell me whether today's candle touched 3EMA line or not?
Because i think yesterdays candle did not touch 3EMA.

@ashish10, can you share the formula which helps you saying "Nifty closing above 4936.2 will make it a crossover on the long side. " ... It will be more helpful.

 

[blackberry]

Can somebody tell me whether today's candle touched 3EMA line or not?
Because i think yesterdays candle did not touch 3EMA.

@ashish10, can you share the formula which helps you saying "Nifty closing above 4936.2 will make it a crossover on the long side. " ... It will be more helpful.

sure, 3 ema is @ 4988,touched

 

[gambler]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Av9uk8B6dKhsdHU5aS1KODMxVXVmZ19xV05aelFNSXc#gid=1

Can somebody tell me whether today's candle touched 3EMA line or not?
Because i think yesterdays candle did not touch 3EMA.

@ashish10, can you share the formula which helps you saying "Nifty closing above 4936.2 will make it a crossover on the long side. " ... It will be more helpful.

 

[anantharaaman]

gambler its very useful to see the numerical number and to trade on it. thanks i need 3/15/34ema on eod in excel can u pls send it?

 

[rahulr]

As per original 315 strategy, we were short till 30th Nov for NIFTY. On 30th Nov, it looked like the candle would touch 15 EMA and we would be adding one more lot to our short position.

But today, 3 EMA crossed over 15 EMA and we should long! Although, the candle did not touch 15 EMA on 30th Nov, 1 st Dec. Had it touched 15 EMA, we cloud have added more lots to short position and today the short positions should have exited.

My question is how to identify trend reversal when candle moves towards 15 EMA ? As mentioned in above example, if candle moves back from 15 EMA in our favor(short), we are in profit. But if the cross over happens, we have to immediately exit and go long.

 

[eevra]

Thanks Gambler:

Could you pls let me know for ema 5 / ema 34 ( commodities ) , what is the cross over formula ? [ will it be 2 ( 1+5 ) & 2 / (1=34 ) instead of 2 / ( 1+ 3) & 2/ ( 1+15 ) ]

-eevra

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Av9uk8B6dKhsdHU5aS1KODMxVXVmZ19xV05aelFNSXc#gid=1