SH's 315 Strategy - how to use if effectively

[rkkarnani]

column L gives cum. profit only. That means 100000 becomes 545300. Whether it is worth the trouble or not depends on every individuals perception and no comments. I just gave the results.
From 15/12/2009, till date from 52 trades, loss is 53088. and from 21/1/2010 loss is 32679 from 50trades.
These are Amibroker backtest results. Not done by me manually.

Thanks for the clarification. If you find time do elaborate on the difference in qty : at most places you have 100 but someplaces only 50?

 

[Tradewithhunter]

I would like to Post a WARNING!! hazarding many members would not like it :

DO NOT TRADE 315 STRATEGY JUST ON 3 AND 15 EMA ALONE. IT WILL BE INJURIOUS TO YOUR WEALTH!!!

One needs to be well versed with 3EMA exits and 15 EMA adds to go for trading based on this strategy!!

It might have further been improved with the NEW exit rules but have not gone through them hence not commenting on them!!

I repeat : Do not trade the Crossovers only, the strategy by SH has much more in it than simple crossovers!!!

Hi Umesh - I do not believe you are entirely correct, and you should not post such comments without providing unbiased analysis.

Many users have backtested simple crossovers and their results were clearly not 'annhilating' in any sense.

Cheers
SH

 

[umeshmandal]

Hi Umesh - I do not believe you are entirely correct, and you should not post such comments without providing unbiased analysis.

Many users have backtested simple crossovers and their results were clearly not 'annhilating' in any sense.

Cheers
SH

Sir, You are very senior to me and any comment I make and if it is even slightly against you, many here would not like it and some may even hate it but still hazarding all this I am writing what is coming into my mind and what I say is corooborated by the Analysis Posted by Mr.Gandhi a few post back.
Just check the "Profit" 315 has made on simple crossover from the date of your "First" post in the thread : 5th July 2009!! That itself would speak volumes of what I am saying.
I totally agree with all who say that SH's 315 strategy is excellent when Traded in Totality. I do firmly believe that trading only the crossover is "Injurious to a Traders wealth"!!
I V Gandhi has given a figure in his Post :

From 15/12/2009, till date from 52 trades, loss is 53088. and from 21/1/2010 loss is 32679 from 51trades.

I tested it bar by bar from Dec end 2009 to Current and I found that in 51 Trades (Not considering the current Trade where we have just crossed over to a Long) from 23rd Dec 2009 till date there is a Profit of 36 Nifty Points... you read it correctly : Its 36 Nifty Points, not taking into account any slippage , NSE charges and brokerage.. this is just the difference of Buy and Sell rates at closing price on crossover days!!

Profit, it is actually a Loss, as per Mr Gandhi's Excel file from 6th July 2009 to date is : (-) 107891 in 61 trades!!

But this is not to blame you for any thing. In fact I appreciate the efforts that you have given in this thread and at other places to help so many seeking nothing in return.
When I posted the BOLD message I thought : I would make you happy becoz I was also helping thos whom you were helping to avoid l losses!!

There is a surprising twist to this also : You created this Thread on 5th July 2009, and in the just preceeding period before this date, from 24th Dec 2007 to 6th July 2009 (Approx 19 months) a simple crossover as per 315 gave a profit of Rs.255579/- in 29 trades!!! The day you created this thread anybody back testing would also find it Profitable as you might have, and I am sure you did back test, before posting it here!!!
If you consider Mr Gandhi's analysis which is quiet detailed and verfiable also , and genuinely have an unbiased view I would request you to "repost" my message in your words so that Members here take it seriously and refrain from Trading just the crossover!!!

If you still feel my Post is undesirable , I will have no hesitation in deleting that and this post too!!!

I reiterate that the Post reffered to, was not written to malign you or the strategy. It was a genuine effort to bring out the truth about simple crossover not working presently!!!

With my best regards.
-Umesh Mandal

 

[KC_novice]

If the strategy is not profitable am sure SH and others will not be using it for so long. Somewhere SH had posted backtested result which i think showed 300% profit in one year..Aprt from 3 ema exit and add at 15 ema, there are other thing which is not taken into account while backtesting..once the trade moves by 100 points in our favour we need to move stop to breakeven..this is very important as many times wipsaw happen after good move in our favor..we can aviod such losses in actual trading but in backtesting it will show as a loss trade..then position sizing also matters.. after 3 wipsaw if we tade with 2x quantity then we can catch big profit with 2x quantity..then once we get good move we aviod taking trade on first cross. this also aviod loss most of the times..having said this we should always look forward to improve the strategy..with new rules of exit,am sure profit will increase further..

 

[rishete]

Any one has taken long position on this cross over? should we take as 3 EMA touch or wait for 3.25 ?

 

[mangup]

Dear SH,

I have gone through the whole thread still I have few queries as below -
1. If we are in 315 bearish crossover mode & if we get a candle whose low is not touching 3 EMA, do we exit or we exit as per 2 consequetive rise in 3 EMA value?
2. If we are in 315 bearish crossover mode. Let's say a candles high is not touching 15 EMA & far behind. We are wating for ADD Short. Next day on gap up if we get a candle whose low is not touching 15 EMA, do we add or we wait till it touches 15 EMA?
3. If we are in 315 buy crossover mode & wating for ADD long. Let's say a candles touches 15 EMA but high is not touching 3 EMA. Do we add or exit the original position?
4. Also i read in the thread that SL is the original entry pt once our position moves in app 100 pts. Is there any trailing SL if we are in deep profits & are not getting any exits because of "No 3 EMA touch"?
5. If we are in 315 bearish crossover mode & next day mkt opens with very less gap in 3 EMA & Open. As per rule we do not exit. Now suppose if mkt close with a big gap let's say 50-60 pts in 3 EMA & Open. Do we exit since the gap has increased? Here a suggestion may come that if diff betn 3EMA & Close is more that 50-60, we may exit?
5. If we want to add as per 15 EMA touch/near to touch. Is there any min/max distance required for making it as a valid touch?

Kindly clarify.

 

[trader_boy]

are you guys long as per the crossover occured on 2th dec ?

 

[trade4joisar]

Hello SH,

As last trend gave around 10% i.e. 500 points, So can we ignore OR only 50% quantity in next crossover i.e. as per your post

http://www.traderji.com/technical-a...gy-how-use-if-effectively-299.html#post553963

So 2nd crossover its on way where we should only go for 50% quantity :clap:

 

[rkkarnani]

hi Friends,

I have one indicators afl. These indicator give Buy sell signal on chart. But no of signal in intraday is so much. so i want to filter these buy sell signal. condition is.

1. if 15 min charts 11.00 am candel is close and he show buy call and next candal is break pereviouse candel hig so these buy call is continue but if next candel is not break previuse candel high so i dont want these buy call on chart.

Condition is only if buy next candel is break previous candel high and if sell next candel break previous candel low. only if these condition is fullfill i want call on chart other wise reamaning all call are not show on chart.

If any one can do these pls try

I give Buy sell afl Below

_SECTION_BEGIN("Awsome Oscilator");
center=(H+L)/2;
t1=Optimize("t1",34,20,50,3); //slow MA param
t2=Optimize("t2",5,3,10,1); //fast MA param
awi=MA(center,t2)-MA(center,t1);

//Plot(awi,"Awsome",IIf(awi>Ref(awi,-1),colorGreen,colorRed),styleHistogram | styleThick);

Buy=Cover=
Cross(awi,0) OR //cross 0
(awi>Ref(awi,-1) AND Ref(awi, -BarsSince(awi<Ref(awi,-1)))>LLV(awi,BarsSince(awi>0))) OR //lower high built
(awi>Ref(awi,-1)) // awi direction change to positive above 0 level
;
Short=Sell=
Cross(0,awi) OR //cross 0
(awi<Ref(awi,-1) AND Ref(awi, -BarsSince(awi>Ref(awi,-1)))<HHV(awi,BarsSince(awi<0))) OR //higher low built
(awi<Ref(awi,-1)) // awi direction change to negative below 0 level
;

Buy=Cover=ExRem(Buy,Sell);
Sell=Short=ExRem(Short,Cover);
//PlotShapes( IIf( Buy, shapeNone , shapeNone ), colorWhite );
//PlotShapes( IIf( Short, shapeNone, shapeNone ), colorWhite );
shape = Buy * shapeUpArrow + Sell * shapeDownArrow;

Plot( Close, "Price", colorBlack, styleCandle );

PlotShapes( shape, IIf( Buy, colorGreen, colorRed ), 0, IIf( Buy, Low, High ) );

GraphXSpace = 5;

_SECTION_END();

Any particular reason to Post this AFL in this thread!!? Does it have anything to do with 3 and 15 crossover, or any MA cross?? If not then would request all to refrain from doing it. Simply stems the flow of the regular sybject here!! You would also be getting better responce if you post it under Amibroker Forum threads!!

 

[rishete]

any one has taken short position? at what level?