Some Good Steals...
- Thread starter AMITBE
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kjvohra said:
Hi Amit, I am new to Traderji and this is my first post - so u could welcome me 
. I needed ur advice on what seems like a great stock, Uttam Galva Steel. There seems so much happening in terms of expansion, demand etc. What do u say and why. I feel this Steel is a Steal! KJ Vohra
. I needed ur advice on what seems like a great stock, Uttam Galva Steel. There seems so much happening in terms of expansion, demand etc. What do u say and why. I feel this Steel is a Steal! KJ Vohra
On Uttam, it would depend on whether you want to stay invested for a period of time, or enter a time bound trade.
The trend that began middle of last year appears firm yet slow, slow as in steady. There is a sharp upside in Feb this year from 40 to 70 plus, followed by an equally sharp reactive retracement back to 40 in June. There ia a gradual move up from here which peaked at 61 a few sessions ago. And again a slip over the last few days of volatility at 53 off tonight.
It seems to me that the corrective phase is not over yet. As there are several difficult marks along it's journey up...55-59-64-68...I would rather wait for a clear bullish phase at a close above 72 on substantial volume. 72 does appear a fair distance from 53, but that's what the data suggests. There's no virtue in entering a trade where a clear and unhindered trend doesn't exist.
If you'd like to wait this out, do so, or else I'd encourage you to look for something else...and I'd be happy to offer feedback.
Regards.
Hi Joshi...I have a post on ITC from yesterday, you may want to have a look.
Allahabad Bank is playing out a prolonged corrective phase where over and over again it reacts sharply at 99-100 and falls off. However, the volume and the sentiment remain positive and it needs to clear 93-94 for an upside to 99 again. A move there may come at some time soon, and at any evidence of another bout of selling there, I would suggest exit. Should it sustain over 100, that would be a time to increase exposure in it.
BongaiRef I would take my money out of at the earliest. The long term corrective phase is no where over and there's no sign of a recovery.
GLFL unfortunately is bunched together with the penny counters most of whom are taking a beating. It's trading a little above an important support of 15.75. Looking at your entry, this is deep enough under the circumstances. Below this, 14 off is another support if you want to wait and watch. If your holding is not a lot, I would suggest take a loss should the weakness persist, go cash on BonganRef and GLFL, and look for a better counter. There would be quite a few once we see a clear picture emerging in the market.
I have taken the liberty to suggest pulling out of a potentially losing trade, but this is exactly what I would have done.
All the best.
Allahabad Bank is playing out a prolonged corrective phase where over and over again it reacts sharply at 99-100 and falls off. However, the volume and the sentiment remain positive and it needs to clear 93-94 for an upside to 99 again. A move there may come at some time soon, and at any evidence of another bout of selling there, I would suggest exit. Should it sustain over 100, that would be a time to increase exposure in it.
BongaiRef I would take my money out of at the earliest. The long term corrective phase is no where over and there's no sign of a recovery.
GLFL unfortunately is bunched together with the penny counters most of whom are taking a beating. It's trading a little above an important support of 15.75. Looking at your entry, this is deep enough under the circumstances. Below this, 14 off is another support if you want to wait and watch. If your holding is not a lot, I would suggest take a loss should the weakness persist, go cash on BonganRef and GLFL, and look for a better counter. There would be quite a few once we see a clear picture emerging in the market.
I have taken the liberty to suggest pulling out of a potentially losing trade, but this is exactly what I would have done.
All the best.
Hi Kamalesh...From what I know of the the two companies above from my Coimbatore based in-laws, Lakshmi Mills is probably the one to back of the two. It seems both are part of the same family group ownership.
Even though LMW is a huge story no doubt, with a massive order book I believe, it is likely to face more than a few challenges from China looking ahead, from inventiveness to tooling, to finish to pricing.
To your query on Lakshmi Mills...again you would have a better handle on the fundamental story.
On techs, after a prolonged gradual climb panning out over an year, Lakshmi Mills broke out sharply in July to hit the abrupt peak at 1522. It had tested 1618 that day. Falling back, it appears to be in a consolidation phase for now and will seek higher levels at a close around 1470-1500. You can look to some good progress in the next little while as the trend appears quite bullish.
Something I have noticed with extreme low liquidity counters is while they move with long strides on very few trades, they are hardly ever volatile. Once in a trend, the movement is strong with hardly any counter-pull. The obvious implication is, there is heavy accumulation with hardly any speculative trading.
Also, a very specific and knowledgeable lot of investors seem to come to these counters to corner the meager amounts of stocks in circulation.
I am very positive on this one, Kamalesh.
Regards.
Even though LMW is a huge story no doubt, with a massive order book I believe, it is likely to face more than a few challenges from China looking ahead, from inventiveness to tooling, to finish to pricing.
To your query on Lakshmi Mills...again you would have a better handle on the fundamental story.
On techs, after a prolonged gradual climb panning out over an year, Lakshmi Mills broke out sharply in July to hit the abrupt peak at 1522. It had tested 1618 that day. Falling back, it appears to be in a consolidation phase for now and will seek higher levels at a close around 1470-1500. You can look to some good progress in the next little while as the trend appears quite bullish.
Something I have noticed with extreme low liquidity counters is while they move with long strides on very few trades, they are hardly ever volatile. Once in a trend, the movement is strong with hardly any counter-pull. The obvious implication is, there is heavy accumulation with hardly any speculative trading.
Also, a very specific and knowledgeable lot of investors seem to come to these counters to corner the meager amounts of stocks in circulation.
I am very positive on this one, Kamalesh.
Regards.
Hi bmcg...I had recently replied to your query on Tata Motors here:
http://www.traderji.com/showpost.php?p=20863&postcount=1437
I have not looked into the fundamentals here and cannot say why this has been under-performing.
There is a lot of density over head all the way to 570 with 540 an extremely sticky level.
What can be seen from past patterns is, the higher it reaches, more sharp the volatility gets.
I would personally look to something else to enter. In any case you have not yet mentioned if you are in or wanting to get in.
Something interesting, as there has been talk of the Cup and Handle breakout currently, if you observe the bar-chart of Tata Motors from Feb 15 on, there is a trace of such a formation in the making...not quite the classic C&H, but still a trace. All it needs is a sharp jump in volume and a breakout to prove it.
Regards.
http://www.traderji.com/showpost.php?p=20863&postcount=1437
I have not looked into the fundamentals here and cannot say why this has been under-performing.
There is a lot of density over head all the way to 570 with 540 an extremely sticky level.
What can be seen from past patterns is, the higher it reaches, more sharp the volatility gets.
I would personally look to something else to enter. In any case you have not yet mentioned if you are in or wanting to get in.
Something interesting, as there has been talk of the Cup and Handle breakout currently, if you observe the bar-chart of Tata Motors from Feb 15 on, there is a trace of such a formation in the making...not quite the classic C&H, but still a trace. All it needs is a sharp jump in volume and a breakout to prove it.
Regards.
Hi Madhura...heartening to see that you are looking at charts and attempting to make meaning from them.
Sriram Transport is certainly an interesting chart and worth tracking closely.
I don't believe I discerned a C&H there, but even so, as you have pointed out, there has not been a lot of downside here.
I would be cautious still, and watch to see if breaks the support at 116-117 in the short run, as it has been a little erratic in the daily price movement. A clear confirmation would come on a break past 132. For now 122-125 may give resistance. Do track and update me please.
Regards.
Sriram Transport is certainly an interesting chart and worth tracking closely.
I don't believe I discerned a C&H there, but even so, as you have pointed out, there has not been a lot of downside here.
I would be cautious still, and watch to see if breaks the support at 116-117 in the short run, as it has been a little erratic in the daily price movement. A clear confirmation would come on a break past 132. For now 122-125 may give resistance. Do track and update me please.
Regards.
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