Some Good Steals...

[AMITBE]

Amit,

Variably or invariably, I learn new things everyday from your posts (whenever we interact). I feel like asking more and more. My apetite is growing much.

Thanks very much for your detailed analysis.

Also, I cleaned up my mailbox.

Satya

Satya, not at all, good buddy. The reason you're learning new things is the effort you're putting in. This is a rare quality, where the majority of players come and settle in for trading tips.
Keep it up, Satya, and thanks for your warm words.

 

[srisara]

Amit,

thanks once again.

Satya

 

[srikrp]

Satya, not at all, good buddy. The reason you're learning new things is the effort you're putting in. This is a rare quality, where the majority of players come and settle in for trading tips.
Keep it up, Satya, and thanks for your warm words.

Hi Amit,

Have a look at Rain Calcing when you get the time. Almost all the indicators (MACD, Stoch) indicate a uptrend.. 20 day MA at 41 looks set to take out 50 day MA at 42.. Looks good for a breakout..

What do you say?

Regards,
Srikanth

 

[AMITBE]

Hi Amit,

Have a look at Rain Calcing when you get the time. Almost all the indicators (MACD, Stoch) indicate a uptrend.. 20 day MA at 41 looks set to take out 50 day MA at 42.. Looks good for a breakout..

What do you say?

Regards,
Srikanth

Hi Srikanth...the indicators mentioned by you are more like showing a faint positive divergence, rather than an uptrend, as written by you.
The trend itself has been weak and sideways for an extended period, and the price seems more at home in the 39-44 band.
This can be clearly seen in the line price chart.
What can also be seen are several 'tops' pointed by the red arrows at 46 level, and two major tops enclosed within the red ellipses around 48-51 levels.
These are the immediate challenges for Rain Calcining.
An inablity to take these levels out at testing them would just result in another top, which may render it bearish again.
MACD describes the prolonged weak sideways journey quite vividly, as most of the time it runs along below the zero line, except when the two major tops were created.
Yes, there is a minor positive divergence in MACD, but it's still below the zero line, and a good robust signal would come at zero line crossover.
Should that happen, watch out for the 'tops' levels.
Keep an eye on volume too. It has fallen back the last three bars, as shown by the red arrow bottom right of the price chart.

To zoom in on the bar price chart from Dec '05 onwards, see the descending triangle formed within the black trendlines.
The last bar has just popped above the falling trendline, indicating the possibility of a breakout. (Red arrow)
Now, look at the right column. These are some important EMA levels, namely, 8, 13, 34, 50, 200 day EMAs.
These are all bunched together between 40.7 to 41.9, and the latest bar close is at 43.05, meaning above all these.
So should this be an attempted breakout, we are back to the 'top' at 46-47 levels first. (Dotted black line)
And then immediately above this is the last major top at 48-51, which shows up as much supply.
It's showing a nice pullback on the weekly though, and again we need to await confirmation higher up.

So these are the challenges ahead of Rain Calcining that you'd have to watch out for.

All the best.

 

[rahulg77]

Hi Amit,

How are you? I was away for a weekend as monday factory was closed for labour day. Ah its nice to get away for a weekend I did go through the both the threads and I think we should use both MACD and also histograms. What i forgot was histogram will tell us or forecast only MACD crossover with the signal line but it will not tell us MACD crossing zero line. We are more concerned with crossovers over the zero line. So we should have both setups.
Did I understand it correctly.

About my TA calsses. I had taken a very short course. He covered just the basics and that too very quickly. He did a few formations and a few indicators and a bit about trends. Just four classes of 2 hrs each and you would know that is hardly any time. But I joined the class so I get an idea about TA and know in which direction I should head. Now that I did the class I am reading books and along with that you and Saint are of great help to clear doubts. Moreover now what I think is I need to keep reading, keep Troubling you guys and a lot of experience. The more charts we see the better our eyes get equipped. Its like a doctor and his diagnosis. more experience better his diagnosis.

So were you able to check Ankur Drugs. was I able to read it properly. Any corrections from your side would be highly appreciated. My query is on page 352 #3520.

Regards

Rahul

 

[AMITBE]

Hi Amit,

How are you? I was away for a weekend as monday factory was closed for labour day. Ah its nice to get away for a weekend I did go through the both the threads and I think we should use both MACD and also histograms. What i forgot was histogram will tell us or forecast only MACD crossover with the signal line but it will not tell us MACD crossing zero line. We are more concerned with crossovers over the zero line. So we should have both setups.
Did I understand it correctly.

Hi Rahul...glad you've had a nice weekend.
What you'vs written about MACD and its histogram is quite true.
In addition, by virtue of its computation, when the histogram crosses the zero line in either direction, it's the same as a divergence in MACD in the same direction. Observe any chart to see this.
To recap, the histogram plots the difference between MACD and the 9 day EMA of MACD.
This 9 day EMA is also the signal line of MACD, where MACD is the difference between 12 and 26 day EMAs.
If the value of MACD is larger than the value of its 9 day EMA (signal line), then the value on the histogram will be positive, meaning it moves above the zero line.
Conversely if the value of MACD is less than its 9 day EMA, then the value of the histogram is negative, and it cross below the zero line.
Zero line crossovers in the histogram indicate MACD/signal line divergences, and these divergences can happen above or below the zero line.

Further, the histogram does not display the rate in change in momentum by itself.
As discussed earlier, MACD does this clearly as a momentum oscillator.
The slope of a momentum oscillator is directly proportionate to the velocity of the move. The distance traveled up or down by the momentum oscillator is proportionate to the magnitude of the move.
So for this reason too we don't dispense with MACD.

And finally, the histogram is a derivative of MACD.
MACD in turn is a derivative of price.
So the histogram is twice removed from price action, where price action is the mother of all indicators, and for this reason the histogram cannot be directly and independently of MACD be applied to price action.

That's it Rahul...and now feels like I can live without MACD for some time to come!
All the best.

 

[srikrp]

Hi Srikanth...the indicators mentioned by you are more like showing a faint positive divergence, rather than an uptrend, as written by you.
The trend itself has been weak and sideways for an extended period, and the price seems more at home in the 39-44 band.
This can be clearly seen in the line price chart.
What can also be seen are several 'tops' pointed by the red arrows at 46 level, and two major tops enclosed within the red ellipses around 48-51 levels.
These are the immediate challenges for Rain Calcining.
An inablity to take these levels out at testing them would just result in another top, which may render it bearish again.
MACD describes the prolonged weak sideways journey quite vividly, as most of the time it runs along below the zero line, except when the two major tops were created.
Yes, there is a minor positive divergence in MACD, but it's still below the zero line, and a good robust signal would come at zero line crossover.
Should that happen, watch out for the 'tops' levels.
Keep an eye on volume too. It has fallen back the last three bars, as shown by the red arrow bottom right of the price chart.

To zoom in on the bar price chart from Dec '05 onwards, see the descending triangle formed within the black trendlines.
The last bar has just popped above the falling trendline, indicating the possibility of a breakout. (Red arrow)
Now, look at the right column. These are some important EMA levels, namely, 8, 13, 34, 50, 200 day EMAs.
These are all bunched together between 40.7 to 41.9, and the latest bar close is at 43.05, meaning above all these.
So should this be an attempted breakout, we are back to the 'top' at 46-47 levels first. (Dotted black line)
And then immediately above this is the last major top at 48-51, which shows up as much supply.
It's showing a nice pullback on the weekly though, and again we need to await confirmation higher up.

So these are the challenges ahead of Rain Calcining that you'd have to watch out for.

All the best.

Hi Amit,

Beautiful explanation... I really have a long way to go before implementing oscillators to actual 'investing'

Thanks again

Regards,
Srikanth

 

[shrinivas]

Hi Srikanth...the indicators mentioned by you are more like showing a faint positive divergence, rather than an uptrend, as written by you.
The trend itself has been weak and sideways for an extended period, and the price seems more at home in the 39-44 band.
This can be clearly seen in the line price chart.
What can also be seen are several 'tops' pointed by the red arrows at 46

Hi amitda,

Seems you are learning a lot from me...getting more day by day...

No da, just joking.....gain a lot from your thread...you are really genious in this term...thanks a lot...this expaination was a very detailed one for a layman like me...I learn everyday..though i'm too busy in office...but still, I manage to take time and read out your threads....though nifty fifty passes over from my head...


ganeshhity

 

[chachi]

Hi Amit,

I am going through your threads and learning. Always eagerly wait for your comments (rightly it should be lessons), as well as Saint's, Supra's, Karthik's and so many. I have always found something to learn. You look to be a born teacher.

In the process of my learning I have positioned myself on SonaSteer @ 96.05 CMP 97.50. I have attached the chart. From the chart it looks MACD histogram is trying to breach the zero from down and may start a new upward trend. Is it incorrect to take the position now as the MACD is still below zero line? The support has formed at 90 and resistance is at 107. If I am correct and if the MACD histogram comes above zero line, the target should be 107 + (107-90) = 124. Please bear with me as I am still learning. As usual I will be eagerly waiting for your comments.

As I am trying to post this CMP is 100.25...

Regards
Chachi

 

[Lal]

Dear Amit,

Please advise on the short to medium term outlook for the following:

Jaiprakash Hydro - purchased @ 30 / CMP - 35.50
Hindalco - CMP - 238
HOCL - CMP - 43.60

Thanks in advance.

Regards,
Lal.