Some Good Steals...

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Hi Amit,

Any chance of Gujrat Ambuja Cement moving up ? Please shed some light?

Is this a long term stock or is it waiting for some news ??

Regards ..Rags
 

AMITBE

Well-Known Member
rags said:
Hi Amit,

Any chance of Gujrat Ambuja Cement moving up ? Please shed some light?

Is this a long term stock or is it waiting for some news ??

Regards ..Rags
Hi Rags, as a matter of fact Gujrat Ambuja has been moving up nicely. In about a week it has come up from 63.1 to 68.8, an increase of about 9%. This is a post split stock with the face value of Rs. 2 from 10. The CMP would have been 344.5 at a pre split value, on a point to point calculation. Often the reson for stock split is to increase the liquidity in a scrip as more players can afford to trade in it.
It is a most prominent scrip not only in the cement sector, but in the NIFTY as well.
Normally a price of 68 off is associated with a mid cap, or even a small cap, where gains, losses, and volatility are greater than in a big cap scrip.
Being a big cap, Gujrat Ambhja would show a marked stability in either direction, compared to, say, Arvind Mills or a scrip like Aztec.
Normally Ambuja kind of scrip is a safe bet for investing in the long term, as it is safe from even extreme market volatility, and as a proven sctor leader, will make steady and assured gains over an extended period of investment.
Regards.
 

AMITBE

Well-Known Member
naga2054 said:
No Amit.. nothing against u .. InFact, there was a prompt quick reply from u .. Just that i didnt had much confidence.. Yups, point well taken.. study gives us that confidence.. Somehow, i find that whatever i put money in remains like that.. and the left over ones shoot up.. Finally leavin me frustrated.. :eek:
i am lucky to have thhis forum and people who care and share my emotions..Nagzu
Hi Nagzu, I understand where your frustration is coming from, having gone through exactly this myself. Below I am copying a post from creditviolet, a very distinguished senior member who is not active here any more. Much to lear from it:
Evolution of a trader
STARTS OFF Greed orientated.
Loses because:
1 Market problems
a Not a zero sum game, a very negative sum game
b Market psychology doing the wrong thing at the wrong time
c The majority is always wrong
d Market exists on chaos and confusion.
2 Own problems
a Overtrading
b No knowledge
c No discipline
c No protection against market psychology
d Random action through uncertainty, brokers advice for example
e Market views.
RESULT: the greed orientated trader gets a good kicking and
becomes fear orientated.

Fear Orientated
Loses because:
1 Market problems as above
2 Scared money never wins
3 Own problems
a Still overtrading derivatives
b Fear brings on what it fears
c Tries to cut losses too tight creating more losses
d Still no real understanding of what it takes.
RESULT: Traders who persevere travel through the tunnel and
becomes risk orientated.

Risk Oriented
This is when they start to make money
because they:
1 Develop a methodology which give them an edge
2 Use an effective Money Management system
3 Develop the discipline to follow their methodology
4 Erase harmful personality traits.
 

AMITBE

Well-Known Member
talktoa said:
hi amit...
sorry to trouble u once again
Its Shrachi Securities (now Shrachi Infrastructure & Finance). GOing down since 3 days. About 5.33 down today. Is it just a consolidation. Is the stock fundamentally good to hold. I dont mind holding onto it for a medium term 3-4 monts. It Looked good to me. Whats your opinion. My buy price is @55
Hi talktoa...It's in a mid term uptrend. Looking at the time you are giving it, you could consider keeping the s/l at 48.
From what I have been able to learn about Sharchi, its main business is financing infrastructure inputs like commercial vehicles. They are also stepping up the financing of infrastructure equipment. Last year, Shrachis profit before tax and extraordinary items rose 98.68 per cent at Rs 7.21 crore, while profit after tax grew 79 per cent to Rs 5.4 crore. The company recorded a 70 per cent-plus increase in disbursements of its core financing products - CVs, multi-utility vehicles, cars and construction equipment.
All this is so so, compared to the CMP.
I would still take your attention to IDFC. No danger of any kind at all here. The primary concern with an investment should be not just the growth itself, but also with security. I'm not sure how safe an investment in Shrachi would be.
In the current scenario, all sorts of stocks are running away, deserving or not. Inevitably when the correction comes, these are the first to lose.
See how things pan out over the next few sessions. Should the market take a beating, keep your s/l tighter and bail out. I'm not trying to put fear into you, but keep a good watch. Should the stock do well, enjoy the ride with a trailing stop.
Do keep me posted.
Regards.
 
Hi Amitbe,

Good write up. I m a member here since one or two month. Observing silently other members, their threads etc. Some of the members really impressed me. They are good learned guy. Helping others without ne selfishness. Techincally sound. etc. etc. You are one of them. Thanks for running this thread & helping other investors.

Now come to the point. I have bought Jagatjit Industires at Rs.81/-. I have news that it will go upto Rs.150/- Do you have any idea about this script?

Thanks in advance
Regards & best wishes

vachhanipm
 
Hi Amit,

Any suggestions on stocks in Power sector, like Universal cables and KEI ? Do these seem to have a good future in India, since the demand of cables will increase?

Regards
 

AMITBE

Well-Known Member
vachhanipm said:
Hi Amitbe, Good write up. I m a member here since one or two month. Observing silently other members, their threads etc. Some of the members really impressed me. They are good learned guy. Helping others without ne selfishness. Techincally sound. etc. etc. You are one of them. Thanks for running this thread & helping other investors.
Now come to the point. I have bought Jagatjit Industires at Rs.81/-. I have news that it will go upto Rs.150/- Do you have any idea about this script? hanks in advance. Regards & best wishes vachhanipm
Hi vachhanipm...I'm not aware of any news as such. Jagatjit is an old established player in the manufacture of alcoholic beverages, malt, malt extract, malted milk foods etc, and the balance book in the last few quarters has bee rather erratic. You can check with your contact if there is any take over/divestment or restructuring news. I would not bet on rumours though.
The charts show strong resistance in the 91-94 area and it is flattening out on the weekly readings on account of not clearing those levels. 84-85 are suggested supports in case it slips further and you want out.
The market is delicately poised, and in a reversal, fundamentally weak scrips would lose the most. This is not to say Jagatjit's fundaments are poor, but then you would not call it a robust growth story either.
Wait and see what happens next couple of sessions.
Regards.
 
AMITBE said:
Hi Nagzu, I understand where your frustration is coming from, having gone through exactly this myself. Below I am copying a post from creditviolet, a very distinguished senior member who is not active here any more. Much to lear from it:
Evolution of a trader
STARTS OFF Greed orientated.
Loses because:
1 Market problems
a Not a zero sum game, a very negative sum game
b Market psychology doing the wrong thing at the wrong time
c The majority is always wrong
d Market exists on chaos and confusion.
2 Own problems
a Overtrading
b No knowledge
c No discipline
c No protection against market psychology
d Random action through uncertainty, brokers advice for example
e Market views.
RESULT: the greed orientated trader gets a good kicking and
becomes fear orientated.

Fear Orientated
Loses because:
1 Market problems as above
2 Scared money never wins
3 Own problems
a Still overtrading derivatives
b Fear brings on what it fears
c Tries to cut losses too tight creating more losses
d Still no real understanding of what it takes.
RESULT: Traders who persevere travel through the tunnel and
becomes risk orientated.

Risk Oriented
This is when they start to make money
because they:
1 Develop a methodology which give them an edge
2 Use an effective Money Management system
3 Develop the discipline to follow their methodology
4 Erase harmful personality traits.
Comforting to c that this is a typical psychological curve. Challenge is how fast shall one graduate from one level to the other. Am sure this forum and the senior members are a real blessing to the juniors to go thru the "tunnel"..

Thanks Amit for reminding us the great post..

Nagzu
 
Rico Auto has given a good breakout with huge volumes.. Sharekhan has released an equity report late yesterday..

Amit, can u please set the S/Ls and targets.. btw, i have started reading TA. Soon will come out with my own estimates :)

Nagzu
 
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