Some of my forecasts

[tradetogain]

paul,
i would like to throw some info on this reliance /nifty correlation.
in the last two decades indian markets were (now also) heavily manipulated by few operators.if those handful of guys want to pull up nifty then reliance,being a heavyweight in index, will run up for no reason at all.even now such sort of relationship exists with few stocks like hdfc and hdfcbank according to me.
but since last few years reliance/ nifty relationship has become inverse in the sense,when reliance runs up big time for a couple of days,then few market observers consider that as the last leg of nifty upmove.i feel this is the background for that message from timepass.
on a different note,tatasteel has seen some big fight between group of operators based in different cities in the past.those who were in indian markets since long will know that

LOL, Timepass. I got a chuckle out of your post. Even Nifty reverses after Nifty climbs up. I know what you are getting at.

Nifty and DJIA have a mathematical relationship, but it is more subtle than forex. Nifty and DJIA are represented by a sum of its parts, as opposed to a product of its selected parts. So, if Nifty had a strong move either way, then the sum of all its parts totaled that same direction, even though it does not mean all its markets moved in that same direction.
Having said that, it stands to reason that as a rule, after a strong move on the part of Reliant that Nifty would probably be ready to reverse, because Reliant is also getting ready to reverse.
Still, this is a point I adhere to. When it comes to a trading decision always consider that market separate unto itself.

Coming up next, the charts.

 

[sanjosedesi]

on a different note,tatasteel has seen some big fight between group of operators based in different cities in the past.those who were in indian markets since long will know that

hi trade, where do we get such scoops. i have heard gossips and suspected a lot, but is there any place you can fish out such information?

 

[NANDAMAD]

Hi Paul, Bank Nifty is not the same as Nifty. It is another index made up of just banks. Its value is almost twice Nifty ... nowadays 9600 odd. I do not have GCI now, but do not remember seeing it there from earlier days. Do check, it might be there as it is one of the most popular indices being traded.

Sir Paul, if it is of trouble to follow Bank Nifty, let it be. But pl give gold forecasts

Regards.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Gbp/usd

Timepass, I'm putting you off a bit, because what is happening with cable right now is a little more important.

I originally thought the reversal began, or may have begun at the last point of reversal. It got 1 116-pip move north, but lacked any momentum, in psite of it being OS. The next level to look for is the WS3 at 1.5889. That area will also form a perfect confluence with the weekly chart, as it proposes tremendous potential for a reversal. It is the top of the long awaited cloud, the SD channel extreme, and its minor TL.

As a further note, this area has to signal a return to the UP or we are headed to 1.5312, and even lower. This means my projection of 1.7333 is toast.
There is strong momentum weighing down on this move, but I'm still tentatively holding on to my original projection until price movement confirms otherwise

 

[4xpipcounter]

Nandamad, it is a problem only because I cannot get the market on an MT4 platform. I do have many Indian markets on my GCI demo platform.

Gold was done a few posts back.

Sir Paul, if it is of trouble to follow Bank Nifty, let it be. But pl give gold forecasts

Regards.

 

[tradetogain]

hi sjd,
i used to get them thru some reliable brokers who used to get some inside info.but since 2004 these reliable sources have become unreliable.
so i am not in a position to guide you on these.sorry friend.

hi trade, where do we get such scoops. i have heard gossips and suspected a lot, but is there any place you can fish out such information?

 

[4xpipcounter]

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Sure it's going to reverse. I have posted somewhere herein that since last 2-3 years, even nifty reverses after reliance climbs up. Can you quantify it using charts ? Reliance vs. Nifty I mean.

First, the charts are going to look similar, as per the reasons already described.
There are many points that could be made about the charts. I 'll direct the attention to a couple of points as pertaining trading decisions, and once again, show the dangers of making a strict trading decision based on chart interrelationships.
To the right shows a peak to peak of RI from June 30--July 25, but on Nifty it is July 7--25. In essence Nifty followed RI to the peak.
To the left shows RL peaking on March 31, 2011, but Nifty on April 5, 2011.

The charts are similar but I would not want to have to wait 5-7 days for my position to turn around and have it go in that kind of arrears. That point was made in lieu of trying to corroborate inter-market trading relationships.

 

[timepass]

when reliance runs up big time for a couple of days,then few market observers consider that as the last leg of nifty upmove.

Exactly !! Thanks for finding the right words.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Gbp/aud

The last time I talked about this pair I was talking about a reversal. It happened, but not with the teeth I expected. My WS2 at 1.4991 was just hit. Once again, this pair is in extreme territory, but on the daily, and has hit the bottom of the cloud. It should be preparing for a strong move north. Once again, it could be looking at 1.5599.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Aud/usd

This pair has hit my downside objective, as per my Weekly Forecast at 1.0494 as the dip was 1.0480. The WR1 is 1,0694, and as per my WF, that also should be hit. That could mean a significant peak as I am still waiting for a much more meaningful move to the south.