Some of my forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

Raj, I thought I'd get to this before I get to the EUR/USD.
First of all, the ichimoku has 5 different indicators built into 1, and for now in order to cut to the chase the ichimoku is configured through highs, lows, MA's, and current prices. The very nature of an MA cannot be backtested. The circled part was a good point made by Forexworld, but that does not necessarily mean that is what it looked like at the time of the cross. If price had made a sharp move north, then it would have looked just as good, but instead the tenken would have crossed on top of the kijun and the TL would have been broken.
I do like the way you use your candle formations in lieu of what you are looking at on the charts. Even the ones who are successful traders that use the ichimoku as a standalone, evaluate many other factors such as candle formations, price action, etc.
Another thing I learned when I first started using the ichimoku in 2007 was to use the other TF's in making a decision, which is also a point Forexworld used. That encircled area probably would not have been that good of a decision if you just hit the top of the daily cloud.

With regards to your stops when using the ichimoku, if you have entered a trade after the TK cross, then go to the kijun, count back 3 candles, and set the stop 1 pip under.
The other way to look at this is that if you are wondering if current price action has the gusto to stay in the trend, as long as the price stays above the kijun 3 candles back, then the trend is still alive. If that level is broken, then it puts down on the current trend.

I thought that I better analyze this chart else it will be in my mind..
The first sell signal is awesome.. Its a very strong sell signal, no doubt about that.

Coming to the buy signal (Which is a correction). The price didn't touch the bottom of the weekly cloud. If your entry is above tenken and your target is kinjun. I would see it as an early entry (I would call it as a smart entry) and early exit. If I had to enter, I would have entered after tenken crossed over kinjun because price is above the cutover and chances of reaching the bottom of the cloud in H4 will be my first target and keeps trailing.

This concept is very similar to pivot based trading.. We do not enter once the trendlines breaks, we wait for higher high and lower lows to make a pivot and then make an entry.

I have a very important question.. How do we keep trailing our stops in ichimoku. Can give me a hindsight of it.

Regards
Raj

 

[4xpipcounter]

Eur/usd

This pair has the potential to be very volatile. With the bottom of the weekly cloud being broken, it provides solid R at 1.3505. There is also R at the daily TL at 1.3456, then my WR1 at 1.3475, the 4-hour TL at 1.3500, which matches nicely with the 4-hour cloud. It would seem to indicate this area contains. The problem is the pair is under the lower extreme SD channel on the weekly. One of two things happens:1. The reversal has already begun and the pair begins forming a base which will eventually herald the beginning of a strong UP; 2. This area is the decision point for the MT correction. If broken, then we have have a maniacal move through this R congestion area, and the breakaway towards the MR2 at 1.3664 has begun.

 

[forexworld]

I thought that I better analyze this chart else it will be in my mind..
The first sell signal is awesome.. Its a very strong sell signal, no doubt about that.

Coming to the buy signal (Which is a correction). The price didn't touch the bottom of the weekly cloud. If your entry is above tenken and your target is kinjun. I would see it as an early entry (I would call it as a smart entry) and early exit. If I had to enter, I would have entered after tenken crossed over kinjun because price is above the cutover and chances of reaching the bottom of the cloud in H4 will be my first target and keeps trailing.

This concept is very similar to pivot based trading.. We do not enter once the trendlines breaks, we wait for higher high and lower lows to make a pivot and then make an entry.

I have a very important question.. How do we keep trailing our stops in ichimoku. Can give me a hindsight of it.

Regards
Raj

I should have made my self more on this but I think I can pass ! and tell you what I clearly meant first the second circle that I marked was the exit point of the trade if you entered on the 1st strong sell circled signal! the second circled area was never an entry point but the exit point of the 1st circled area the second circled area was also meant to show the correction has begun after hitting 0.9390! Regarding you said the price didn't touch the weekly bottom cloud there was a strong support seen at 0.9390 if you didn't notice ! As it touched there reversal started showing itself at the 4 hour chart these reversals were expected if you read the previous posts we had been talking out,! the second circle area was not at all the entry point it gave a confirmation to my long entry at 0.9462 according to the weekly and h4, I called it correction because I was just simply showing you according to the h4 ! It was never an early entry but was at 0.9462 on the basis of the weekly the target being the 4 hour kinjun was the minimum target which I was aiming for! I wouldn't have gone long at the cross over because it was below the cloud I closed it there at the h4 kinjun for the minimum! even though I know the reversal had begun but I was unsure will it be permanent or temp! see it hit the bottom of the weekly cloud I was unsure that It would because previous days weekly and monthly were adding a lot of pressure for the trend to resume up! frankly speaking Mr paul should only answer you regarding the doubts you have as I am a fresher I don't want you to get wrong this in your head because of me !

 

[forexworld]

Let me add something there. Generally speaking, it is a mistake to enter a trade on a long just under the TL and the kijun. How do you know for sure that price was going to break it. If you had a way of telling, them I stand corrected.

I got a question, because I'm curious. Your first post in the thread was #1166. 2 posts later you had the most basic of questions (Do not mistaken me here. I'm not knocking any question that someone has.)-- "which was asking me what timeframe I use. The types of questions you asked could only come from a beginner. 5 days later an exceptional knowledge has evolved.
Do you learn that quick, or am I missing something? I was also thinking, maybe it was stored knowledge from following the thread in the past, and now it's all coming together?

Mr Paul, I to got a "corporal tunnel" now ! I don't know what I said that made you think I am a beginner and then I jumped from a beginner and gained some exceptional knowledge in 5 days ? -LOL you got me knocked out by this question,boom ! I am embarassed if I asked which time frame you use ! I myself use the h1 and h4 for entering trades with the confluence of daily weekly and monthly! Treat me as a fresh starter, A beginner who entered 5 days ago! I have my views on every point and if some where I go wrong please correct me !

I think I was in a hurry because I needed to go to the bathroom I was holding the pressure from 3 hours it was a tuff time -LOL so I could not made my self clear of what I meant ! Regarding the original post that i posted I have written there ""I bought at the reversal at the bottom of the weekly cloud targeting for the 4 hour weekly kinjun ""I never entered a long under TL and the kinjun before also and regarding this posts also I have mentioned weekly bottom cloud at 0.9390 strong support were seen at this level also reversals wee expected the second circle was an exit if you entered at the first circle as well as reversal to my long from 0.9462 has begun the purpose for the second circle was just to show I would have exit there if i entered my short at the first circle ! I had a long entry at 0.9462, the support at 0.9390 gave a good reversal minimum I was wanting was the h4 kinjun I could have made the target to the bottom of the h4 cloud again because of the weekly reversal but I was not sure how long will it last, then I switched to h4, it settled above the tenken, I got an idea here that correction to the up has begun after it hit the h4 kinjun I closed it because that was what I was looking for ! I was not sure if it could hit the bottom of the h4 cloud but it did!

 

[forexworld]

Raj, I don't know if it is the EUR/USD that you are considering, but the monthly kijun is 1.3833.
I'll give my update on the EUR/USD next.

I think I need glasses but Eur/usd montlhy kinjun seems to be at 1.3505, yes and this is strong resistance now it is also a previous weekly top cloud resistance, I think you did a typo 1.3833 is the bottom of the monthly cloud!

 

[forexworld]

Raj, I thought I'd get to this before I get to the EUR/USD.
First of all, the ichimoku has 5 different indicators built into 1, and for now in order to cut to the chase the ichimoku is configured through highs, lows, MA's, and current prices. The very nature of an MA cannot be backtested. The circled part was a good point made by Forexworld, but that does not necessarily mean that is what it looked like at the time of the cross. If price had made a sharp move north, then it would have looked just as good, but instead the tenken would have crossed on top of the kijun and the TL would have been broken.
I do like the way you use your candle formations in lieu of what you are looking at on the charts. Even the ones who are successful traders that use the ichimoku as a standalone, evaluate many other factors such as candle formations, price action, etc.
Another thing I learned when I first started using the ichimoku in 2007 was to use the other TF's in making a decision, which is also a point Forexworld used. That encircled area probably would not have been that good of a decision if you just hit the top of the daily cloud.

With regards to your stops when using the ichimoku, if you have entered a trade after the TK cross, then go to the kijun, count back 3 candles, and set the stop 1 pip under.
The other way to look at this is that if you are wondering if current price action has the gusto to stay in the trend, as long as the price stays above the kijun 3 candles back, then the trend is still alive. If that level is broken, then it puts down on the current trend.

Mr paul , That second encircled area was just to show the where I would exit my trade if I sold at the first circle it was also a confirmation correction has begun because of the reversal on weekly It was not a entry point , entry point would have been at the support at the bottom of the weekly cloud 0.9390 I entered at 0.9462 targeting for the h4 kinjun the minimum to be hit!

 

[forexworld]

Re: Eur/usd

This pair has the potential to be very volatile. With the bottom of the weekly cloud being broken, it provides solid R at 1.3505. There is also R at the daily TL at 1.3456, then my WR1 at 1.3475, the 4-hour TL at 1.3500, which matches nicely with the 4-hour cloud. It would seem to indicate this area contains. The problem is the pair is under the lower extreme SD channel on the weekly. One of two things happens:1. The reversal has already begun and the pair begins forming a base which will eventually herald the beginning of a strong UP; 2. This area is the decision point for the MT correction. If broken, then we have have a maniacal move through this R congestion area, and the breakaway towards the MR2 at 1.3664 has begun.

Mr paul I think I am wrong but The bottom of the weekly cloud was it broken?Looking at the weekly chart tells me it touched the bottom and reversal took place! please correct me! I also have been telling A strong resistance is seen at 1.3505 according to weekly the previous bearish cloud and this is also the monthly kinjun, we were still discussing about the pair going to hit the bottom of the monthly cloud at 1.3845

 

[4xpipcounter]

That's carpel tunnel--lol.

It was my misunderstanding. Again, it seemed like you were judging by the questions you asked. OTOH, you have had the composure of a veteran by saying you were going to demo trade what you saw on the ichimoku.
Now that I think about it, I could come off as a beginner when I visit Kavrim's. I ask a lot of questions about his pitchfork. He is the teacher. I am the student.
But then, I have always said the learning never quits, as there are no degrees in trading.

I'm even learning about corporal tunnel now--lol.

Mr Paul, I to got a "corporal tunnel" now ! I don't know what I said that made you think I am a beginner and then I jumped from a beginner and gained some exceptional knowledge in 5 days ? -LOL you got me knocked out by this question,boom ! I am embarassed if I asked which time frame you use ! I myself use the h1 and h4 for entering trades with the confluence of daily weekly and monthly! Treat me as a fresh starter, A beginner who entered 5 days ago! I have my views on every point and if some where I go wrong please correct me !

I think I was in a hurry because I needed to go to the bathroom I was holding the pressure from 3 hours it was a tuff time -LOL so I could not made my self clear of what I meant ! Regarding the original post that i posted I have written there ""I bought at the reversal at the bottom of the weekly cloud targeting for the 4 hour weekly kinjun ""I never entered a long under TL and the kinjun before also and regarding this posts also I have mentioned weekly bottom cloud at 0.9390 strong support were seen at this level also reversals wee expected the second circle was an exit if you entered at the first circle as well as reversal to my long from 0.9462 has begun the purpose for the second circle was just to show I would have exit there if i entered my short at the first circle ! I had a long entry at 0.9462, the support at 0.9390 gave a good reversal minimum I was wanting was the h4 kinjun I could have made the target to the bottom of the h4 cloud again because of the weekly reversal but I was not sure how long will it last, then I switched to h4, it settled above the tenken, I got an idea here that correction to the up has begun after it hit the h4 kinjun I closed it because that was what I was looking for ! I was not sure if it could hit the bottom of the h4 cloud but it did!

 

[4xpipcounter]

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There's a print screen of my demo account. Monthly kijun on the EUR/USD--1.3833.

I think I need glasses but Eur/usd montlhy kinjun seems to be at 1.3505, yes and this is strong resistance now it is also a previous weekly top cloud resistance, I think you did a typo 1.3833 is the bottom of the monthly cloud!

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Eur/usd

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Yes it did, but I am counting on a headfake and on still getting that strong move north. If not, then we go sideways for weeks before breaking away south.

Mr paul I think I am wrong but The bottom of the weekly cloud was it broken?Looking at the weekly chart tells me it touched the bottom and reversal took place! please correct me! I also have been telling A strong resistance is seen at 1.3505 according to weekly the previous bearish cloud and this is also the monthly kinjun, we were still discussing about the pair going to hit the bottom of the monthly cloud at 1.3845