Some of my forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

Re: S&R's II

Just like ichimoku, stochastics, TL's and everything else, a methodology is required and mental discipline to stay within its parameters.
I'm this straightforward about trading-- anyone can make a mint trade, but I build no one's hopes up.
OTOH, the reason I am in this forum is to be bale to talk trading with everyone, learn from others, and help anyone that needs it. I will say that overall the my S&R's make up a good-size part of my methodology, even though they could be used as a standalone. I do know if all I had was a calculator and pencil and paper, I could still trade.
Let me shine some more light on all this. If you look at my Weekly Forecast, and then the Weekly Review, you will find that my forecasts are right most of the time, but rarely are the points hit spot on. As an example, I called for the EUR/USD to drop to the WS1 at the beginning of the week, and then it would head north the rest of the week. Reality is it dropped to the WS2 then reversed. I still made a grip of pips on that trade, but the point is how does the trade made the adjustment when things go against him, such as dropping that whole level.
Another question is, "Let's say my level is missed by one pip, how would you react then?" Let's say you are in the trade and you feel positive the trade can go much further than 38.2%, what do you do?
IMO, those questions all revolve around the mental discipline of trading. Most people do not fail because they don't have am methodology to trade by, they fail because they lack the discipline. I am one of the most impetuous people you have ever met, but when it comes to trading, I had to learn discipline quick.

Mr paul you should have told me about this before, you already know I can't catch positive trades every day! Now with this It gives me a sign of relief - lol

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: S&R's II

No, it does not work every time, every week. It works almost every time, and hardly with an exception every week will yield positive pips.

BTW, that picture was not designed to show how my S&R's work. It was not designed to show a 4-hour candle in retrospect to a move to the 4-hour S3. It just shows what happens when a 3 is hit.

Also, do not be concerned with a method that works everytime. None of them do. Mine just happens to be highly accurate and yields me 85%+ winning trades. I'm not saying you want to get exactly that, but I am saying, beyond any shadow of a doubt to strive to be consistent.
I know many silent viewers are going to read this. The winning traders of this forum that read this may not say a thing, but they are admitting to themselves that consistency is key.
I'll even expound on that. I told you I have 85% winning trades. I know someone that wins 40% of the time. This is because he has the smallest of losses, but his wins are huge. OTOH, I know someone who wins 85% of the time and bankrupts his account every 2 months. His losers are HUGE. (That's not me--lol.)

I see now it works great according to the picture but does it work every time,every week and with all 11 pairs?

 

[sanjosedesi]

Re: Sensex weeklies--100911

As far as I know, this is the only Indian market I can even so much as plug data to, so if you want the yearlies, decades, or even the dailies and 4H, I'll have them.
Do keep in mind because Sensex is only a 6 1/2 hour per day market any strong spike could wipe out the 1 levels quickly.

Paul, since you have just started on sensex numbers, it will be good to have them all ... not 4H, but higher timeframes.

BTW, I am watching this threads and yours and fxworlds comments about funda/tech, but the markets don't interest me, and you guys are going too fast for me, so I am staying out of the way.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Sensex weeklies--100911

SJD, I think it is good that you are using it as an informational source, as I hope others are too. Just because we may have gotten off on a tangent on the ichimoku and now my S&R's, it doesn't mean we can't discuss something you are interested in, or for that matter, you may feel the need to rewind the clock and go back to a distant post and ask or comment on something lie that.
I know this thread is moving fast, so it would be far from me to get on anyone's case for addressing a comment that was made 142 posts back.
I am kind of tickled to see how the ichimoku is catching on as people are able to see practical elements of it live.
I'll post the monthlies and yearlies for Sensex. I don't have enough data to do the decade's. In addition it would not fit appropriately on my spreadsheet.

Paul, since you have just started on sensex numbers, it will be good to have them all ... not 4H, but higher timeframes.

BTW, I am watching this threads and yours and fxworlds comments about funda/tech, but the markets don't interest me, and you guys are going too fast for me, so I am staying out of the way.

 

[sanjosedesi]

Re: Sensex weeklies--100911

SJD, I think it is good that you are using it as an informational source, as I hope others are too. Just because we may have gotten off on a tangent on the ichimoku and now my S&R's, it doesn't mean we can't discuss something you are interested in, or for that matter, you may feel the need to rewind the clock and go back to a distant post and ask or comment on something lie that.

Don't worry sir, it is not only the other factors but also that I start traveling in a few days. There is lot of prep work for that and I will most likely be out of action (might pop in once in a while) for about a month.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Sensex note

I just noticed I already posted the monthlies for Sensex.

I thought I had enough data to do the yearlies for Sensex, but I do not. I will have enough data to do the yearlies for 2012 ,when I do the rest of them at the end of the year.

 

[forexworld]

Re: EUR/USD and the NFP

That means on a market like the EUR/USD you would pay 56.50 to put the trade up, so safely you could have 2 trades at one time.
I would not do it on your live account this quick. You may want to test the waters on your demo.
Even for me, my cow give sour milk every once in awhile, but she give enough good milk to help keep my account in good condition.
Another thing to remember is don't get too used to my S&R's. I'll give them to you for any market you want. But....if a car heads me head on tonight when I am coming home from the party, you will never see my S&R's again.

LOL. Don't discourage me not to get used to the S and R method !I could just relax if I don't find any trades everyday while let your cow make sour milk for me as well -lol I have a small balance account size and big dreams !! And don't worry mr paul about a car crashing onto you - lol don't drink and drive !

 

[forexworld]

Re: S&R's II

No, it does not work every time, every week. It works almost every time, and hardly with an exception every week will yield positive pips.

BTW, that picture was not designed to show how my S&R's work. It was not designed to show a 4-hour candle in retrospect to a move to the 4-hour S3. It just shows what happens when a 3 is hit.

Also, do not be concerned with a method that works everytime. None of them do. Mine just happens to be highly accurate and yields me 85%+ winning trades. I'm not saying you want to get exactly that, but I am saying, beyond any shadow of a doubt to strive to be consistent.
I know many silent viewers are going to read this. The winning traders of this forum that read this may not say a thing, but they are admitting to themselves that consistency is key.
I'll even expound on that. I told you I have 85% winning trades. I know someone that wins 40% of the time. This is because he has the smallest of losses, but his wins are huge. OTOH, I know someone who wins 85% of the time and bankrupts his account every 2 months. His losers are HUGE. (That's not me--lol.)

85% winning trades every month smells good -lol ! btw I am going to keep an eye on the 3 ! I am going to put this up every week on 5 forex pairs from the WF,I am not going to trade any chf pairs, they give me chills!talking about chf usd/chf we were talking about a huge reversal! do you expect to see that this week? also I am going to put this on commodities gold and silver and if you could give me for DAX !

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: EUR/USD and the NFP

My point was anything could happen. I will always give the levels. I plan on trading just for the love it.
As far as drinking and driving goes, there is no rule against drinking water or coffee while driving. I don't touch alcohol. Life is too short to be dabbling in that.
After having said that, I do think you will enjoy them once you get used to them. I got a friend that I have discouraged from just copying my methodology but has used my levels for 3 years, along with his own implementations, and he is doing real well.

LOL. Don't discourage me not to get used to the S and R method !I could just relax if I don't find any trades everyday while let your cow make sour milk for me as well -lol I have a small balance account size and big dreams !! And don't worry mr paul about a car crashing onto you - lol don't drink and drive !

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Sensex weeklies--100911

Yes, be safe. I do hope you can pop up in every once in awhile.
I wish you well with the whole situation and the decisions you'll need to make.

Don't worry sir, it is not only the other factors but also that I start traveling in a few days. There is lot of prep work for that and I will most likely be out of action (might pop in once in a while) for about a month.