Some of my forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

Raj, excellent questions!

Believe it or not, I am not big on using Fibs. I only use them in plotting between my S&R's.

Your analogy is correct concerning crests and troughs with regards to the market's trading cycles.

This is a time I do not think about trading the bounces. A look at the higher TF's tells me to stay away from thoughts of bounces but to focus more on continuation patterns. From a personal point of view, I am holding a couple of rather nice positions, and am simply adding to them as the trends progress.
On my initial positions, my Swissy is up over 200 pips, and my Euro is up close to 500 pips.

In trading the bounces, my stops are set at 40% of the distance between reference points. In choosing the right times to trade bounces is also imperative.
The 40% represents a small distance on the other side a small distance on the other side of the 38.2% level.

BTW, it is not often I allude to my personal trades, as I like the thread to be given more to forecasting and analysis. It was just for the benefit of this conversation I had to bring it up.

Thanks Paul.
When you talk about trading cycles, it reminds me for every crest there is trough.

The way that you are fib levels are very nice. I use to be great fan of them.

Do u plan what IF scenario. Example: After it hits the first reference point, u have an order set to reverse the direction and take profit 38.2% but what if continues to move towards WR2. What would be your stop.

Regards
Raj

 

[4xpipcounter]

FW, this is why I said that choosing the right times to trade the bounces is imperative. I wouldn't touch the bounces for the USD this week.

But then, I also said my cow gives sour milk every once in awhile.

your stop would be the 40% between the WR1 and WR2, btw today the cow didn't give any milk It smoked the 1st levels for 5 pairs which I was trading! but as Mr paul said trading on bounces is not the only way!

 

[4xpipcounter]

It is entering an R zone, but not enough to contain the MT. I would look to the top of the daily cloud at 1229 to contain. That could be the means of a strong reversal, but not yet confirmed.

S & p 500 could be ready for a strong reversal!

 

[forexworld]

FW, this is why I said that choosing the right times to trade the bounces is imperative. I wouldn't touch the bounces for the USD this week.

But then, I also said my cow gives sour milk every once in awhile.

Mr paul Yes you are correct but I had the orders set for the pairs When I opened My account I didn't get time to close it as the bulls smoked it with great volatility

 

[forexworld]

It is entering an R zone, but not enough to contain the MT. I would look to the top of the daily cloud at 1229 to contain. That could be the means of a strong reversal, but not yet confirmed.

Yes I though it could reverse from the bottom of the daily cloud but it didn't ! yes now looking for the top of the daily cloud! I don't know why weekly and monthly doesn't on index

 

[4xpipcounter]

Raj, this is why of recent posts I have almost been harping on the higher TF's and the implications involved. I added to my EUR/USD position last night, but it was not a matter of my S&R's, but a matter of finding a place to jump in for some added pips on the journey.
This is why I view (and they are) my S&R's as being highly effective, but it is only a microcosm within the total scope of my methodology. On the weekly the EUR/USD was OS, at extreme levels on the SD channel and a decision point with regards to the bottom of the cloud. With all the other variables it was evident what the decision was going to be.
I'll assure you, the bounces will be tradable next week. Price action has already indicated that.

If you have found that your original positions make money for you, but have found no success in adding to it, then stick to what has brought you success to this point. Adding positions is something progressionary within the total scope of the methodology.

It is a really toughest skill to add positions, I have not been very successful in it. I have been always trying to add positions at the pivot low or after taking pivot high. I have not been very successful in it.

Taking your example of S & R:

Price Reached WR1
retraces 38.3% and again reached WR1 (we can add here) before heading to WR2. Its very easy to put it here but in real scenario, l find it tough what if retraces 50% Fib Level. It is moving in a range instead of following the trend.

I always want to add What IF scenario in all my trades. If the trade goes against me, should I quit the trade or repair it. Recent days I have been repairing more than quitting. I do not want to repair but rather quit and take a fresh position. Can you please share your strategy on how u handle it.

Regards
Raj

 

[4xpipcounter]

I got it at 1.3715.

Am I looking at the wrong thing.. I am following standard setup.. Have u made any changes to ur setup. My setup for daily kinjun is 1.37127

Regards
Raj

 

[4xpipcounter]

Your could be a feeder problem, and it could also be the time your broker starts your day in the candles.

Regardless, your kijun is way off.

I don't know raj why is your daily kinjun at that level ! mine is the default setup and daily kinjun is already broken it was at 1.3541

 

[4xpipcounter]

I got it figured out!

If both of you look at the hourly candles on the platform that shows that 1.3541, you will notice the current hourly candle is set at 1600 GMT. That is what's throwing it off. Current time needs to be closer to 2100 GMT. You will notice in less than 24 hours from now, the kijun on your charts is going to have a huge gap north.
This is why even the time of your candles your broker plots is vitally important.

Ya u r correct. I am checking Metatrader its 1.35413 where as my saxo platform is different. I guess due to different open and close prices.

This is the first time I have realised it.. oops.. pretty dangerous.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Wow! Oil is also stuck in the northern rut.

I'm still expecting the correction. I better not be wrong for your sake.

Thank you Paul sir,

I will hold on and wait for your guidance.

regards.