Some of my forecasts
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That's fine, Raj. I don't mind your questions at all.
The S&R's that I created also have many variables. You mentioned the 2 S's and 3 R's, but then I also have dailies, monthlies, yearlies, and even the decades.
First a bit of a background. My S&R's are not just standard S&R's where a certain reversal point is detected like you would think of most S&R's. They also measure the cycle within a trend. As an example, let's say you measure the WP to the WR1. Let's say you measure the distance of those 2. Now, let's say price continues up and goes past the WR1 after stalling there. It hits the 38.2% level of WR1--WR2. Most likely, the correction will be back to at least the 38.2% mark of WP--WR1. The distance between the reference points is actually the cycle within the range of the trend.
This is also why I encourage to plot a few of the points on and watch the action. This way all viewers know I am not talking through my hat.
Another way to trade my S&R's is purely for the bounce. After it hits the first reference point for that TF have the entry order set to reverse direction and take profit at 38.2%.
The other way I use them is as a confluence with my other indicators. It was so obvious for me to short the EUR/USD at the end of last week, because it hit my WR1 at the bottom of the cloud with the stochastics OB and the SD channel at an extreme. It could only mean the sharp reversal that we had gotten.
Another way is a continuation. Let's say the WR1 is hit, then get a bounce. Now price heads back up, and consolidates on top of the WR1. Enter long and plan on riding it to the WR2.
The S&R's that I created also have many variables. You mentioned the 2 S's and 3 R's, but then I also have dailies, monthlies, yearlies, and even the decades.
First a bit of a background. My S&R's are not just standard S&R's where a certain reversal point is detected like you would think of most S&R's. They also measure the cycle within a trend. As an example, let's say you measure the WP to the WR1. Let's say you measure the distance of those 2. Now, let's say price continues up and goes past the WR1 after stalling there. It hits the 38.2% level of WR1--WR2. Most likely, the correction will be back to at least the 38.2% mark of WP--WR1. The distance between the reference points is actually the cycle within the range of the trend.
This is also why I encourage to plot a few of the points on and watch the action. This way all viewers know I am not talking through my hat.
Another way to trade my S&R's is purely for the bounce. After it hits the first reference point for that TF have the entry order set to reverse direction and take profit at 38.2%.
The other way I use them is as a confluence with my other indicators. It was so obvious for me to short the EUR/USD at the end of last week, because it hit my WR1 at the bottom of the cloud with the stochastics OB and the SD channel at an extreme. It could only mean the sharp reversal that we had gotten.
Another way is a continuation. Let's say the WR1 is hit, then get a bounce. Now price heads back up, and consolidates on top of the WR1. Enter long and plan on riding it to the WR2.
When you talk about trading cycles, it reminds me for every crest there is trough.
The way that you are fib levels are very nice. I use to be great fan of them.
Do u plan what IF scenario. Example: After it hits the first reference point, u have an order set to reverse the direction and take profit 38.2% but what if continues to move towards WR2. What would be your stop.
Regards
Raj
Thanks Paul.
When you talk about trading cycles, it reminds me for every crest there is trough.
The way that you are fib levels are very nice. I use to be great fan of them.
Do u plan what IF scenario. Example: After it hits the first reference point, u have an order set to reverse the direction and take profit 38.2% but what if continues to move towards WR2. What would be your stop.
Regards
Raj
When you talk about trading cycles, it reminds me for every crest there is trough.
The way that you are fib levels are very nice. I use to be great fan of them.
Do u plan what IF scenario. Example: After it hits the first reference point, u have an order set to reverse the direction and take profit 38.2% but what if continues to move towards WR2. What would be your stop.
Regards
Raj
Raj, that is only one microscopic point how to add to positions. Nothing about trading is canned when it comes to adding to positions.
There are many ways to discern an entry. The entry we pointed out on the daily would have been at .7635. The trader could have toned the microscope down in knowing the reversal was imminent, and looked at the hourly. The TK cross was at .7233. Then the 4-hour could have been nailed at circa .7400, and then the daily at .7635.
This is why it pays to use all the TF's.
Another thing to keep in mind is that price does not get buried that far under the cloud that often.
There are many ways to discern an entry. The entry we pointed out on the daily would have been at .7635. The trader could have toned the microscope down in knowing the reversal was imminent, and looked at the hourly. The TK cross was at .7233. Then the 4-hour could have been nailed at circa .7400, and then the daily at .7635.
This is why it pays to use all the TF's.
Another thing to keep in mind is that price does not get buried that far under the cloud that often.
Taking your example of S & R:
Price Reached WR1
retraces 38.3% and again reached WR1 (we can add here) before heading to WR2. Its very easy to put it here but in real scenario, l find it tough what if retraces 50% Fib Level. It is moving in a range instead of following the trend.
I always want to add What IF scenario in all my trades. If the trade goes against me, should I quit the trade or repair it. Recent days I have been repairing more than quitting. I do not want to repair but rather quit and take a fresh position. Can you please share your strategy on how u handle it.
Regards
Raj
Eur/usd
As per request:
Things might have changed with this pair.
The move north is happening as expected. It is now taking on the appearance that this may be a trend reversal rather than a correction. That is not confirmed yet, but look for major R's at 1.3845 and 1.4041. If the latter is ripped out, then we have a clear shot at 1.4769.
As per request:
Things might have changed with this pair.
The move north is happening as expected. It is now taking on the appearance that this may be a trend reversal rather than a correction. That is not confirmed yet, but look for major R's at 1.3845 and 1.4041. If the latter is ripped out, then we have a clear shot at 1.4769.
Usd/chf
As per request:
This pair has much clearer picture than the EUR/USD.
The WS 2 was hit on a Monday before NY started. That also tells me, and it was expected, that this is a freight train. We had a TK combo at .8124, but now the tenken has diverged from the kijun, and so we are going to have 2 lighter proportional S's at .8512 and .8162, respectively. MT, that is the outlook for now. The latter level is not necessarily containment. Regardless of how the whole thing unfolds, .8162 appears to be absolute containment.
Long term, I would look for 1.1161, maybe less, to be containment before it heralds another fall that could establish a new all-time low below .7000.
As per request:
This pair has much clearer picture than the EUR/USD.
The WS 2 was hit on a Monday before NY started. That also tells me, and it was expected, that this is a freight train. We had a TK combo at .8124, but now the tenken has diverged from the kijun, and so we are going to have 2 lighter proportional S's at .8512 and .8162, respectively. MT, that is the outlook for now. The latter level is not necessarily containment. Regardless of how the whole thing unfolds, .8162 appears to be absolute containment.
Long term, I would look for 1.1161, maybe less, to be containment before it heralds another fall that could establish a new all-time low below .7000.
An additional note on the USD
Of all the USD crosses, the one with the strongest obviation is the USD/CHF. It can be expected that CHF strength is going to move all the crosses. After all, we are looking for a freight train type of move to .8512, and for this move to continue to at least .8162.
This is where the currency cross check comes in at. If the USD wins out on any of the other currency pairs, then total havoc will be wreaked on the CHF crosses, so it is natural to believe that even though they lack the same obviations, the USD will see some losing days across the board, all because of a CHF on steroids.
Of all the USD crosses, the one with the strongest obviation is the USD/CHF. It can be expected that CHF strength is going to move all the crosses. After all, we are looking for a freight train type of move to .8512, and for this move to continue to at least .8162.
This is where the currency cross check comes in at. If the USD wins out on any of the other currency pairs, then total havoc will be wreaked on the CHF crosses, so it is natural to believe that even though they lack the same obviations, the USD will see some losing days across the board, all because of a CHF on steroids.
raj daily kinjun was already hit 1.3543, the level 1.3670 is the area which would be difficult to break but it looks like a clear shot now1.3841! daily charts is above the kinjun, I think the weekly tenken which matches up with the montlhy bottom cloud should be hit!
Regards
Raj
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