Some of my forecasts

[rajesh.sadhanala]

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I wanted to give the update to this post. As you can see that corrective target of 1.3815 was hit exactly. Let me be clear in stating that mark does not mean it is R. That is the minimum corrective target, while the TL will be R. So, in looking for a short the entry is anywhere from 1.3815 to the TL.
There is a very good chance the WP could be revisited at 1.3869.

Thanks Paul for the update and the continuation. I am keen to watch this move. The way u use ur trendlines are very interesting.

Regards
Raj

 

[4xpipcounter]

Raj, you are very welcome. This chart stuff is way too much fun.

I'll answer your previous question next. There are many like instances going on with many of the markets. This is the problem with trading. There are so many opportunities at one time.
I'm glad you like my usage of the TL's, as they have proven effective. I would like to recommend Kavima's thread for your viewership at http://www.traderji.com/futures/534...-levels-median-line-charts-11.html#post597579.

Kavima uses pitchforks, producing the similar results that TL's do.

Thanks Paul for the update and the continuation. I am keen to watch this move. The way u use ur trendlines are very interesting.

Regards
Raj

 

[4xpipcounter]

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I wanted to post the 4-hour and the daily of the Aussie to give an even better idea of what is going on.
What we see happening is the very strong move that was needed to take out that cluster event at 1.0258. After it was move, it was still contained under the TL. The TL will and should act as containment for price action. The problem is the TL is sharply ascending to contain for a move that will eventually bring forth a sharp move south.

The daily brings on a more broader look of price action. In using the TL, the only effective use is on the 4-hour, considering it was drawn off the 4-hour. Nevertheless, the trajectory on the daily shows an apex that is formed with the SD channel line at the bottom of the cloud. The cloud has not been hit yet and it is fresh. What that tells me is is this market does make it all the way to 1.0445, then from there, it is going to be a sharp reversal.

Now I got to put the breaks on and explain the difference in apexes. Kavima's expertise is pitchforks, and he will also agree with this comment. An apex is a very strong S or R. With TL's, it simply means the corrective move has expired, and also met up with the S or R from the current trend. An apex with an SD channel does not carry the same implications. If higher TF's are agreeing then the peak or dip of an SD channel simply means a sharp reversal lies ahead.
I used the SD channel as a confluence with the all important fresh hit on the cloud and the TL which is still going to contain price action.

 

[4xpipcounter]

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This was also the pair I was talking about 11 hours ago. The horizontal line I drew shows the point the TL was broken. Price action corrected back to it, continued higher, but was still contained under the WP at 1.3869, as the peak was 1.3868.

The next stop on the downside, other than the obvious tenken and kijun, is going to be the cluster event at 1.3651. That becomes a decision point. If it holds then we head up to the bottom of the daily cloud at 1.3946. If the former is taken out convincingly, then that puts 1.3585 on the radar, with circa 1.3651 being new R. If 1.3651 is broken consistently, then that should also mark we are back in the downtrend.
My bias is that the level contains, and price will be thrusted north again. It is my opinion current price action is all building to a climax around 1.3946.

For those that like to crosscheck, keep your eye on the EUR/CHF if that happens.

 

[4xpipcounter]

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Just in case my bias is wrong on the previous post, then watch not only for the prescribed action that I was talking about, but for an abrupt move to the MP at 1.3384. Notice the 1-2-3 formation.

BTW, I'm picking on Aussie and the Euro a lot lately, but these same principles apply on any market.

Our weather broke the TL, and it went from warm to freezing in a hurry. The WS3 was and we had some tremendous lightening going on last night. It was so loud, I thought Tucker was going to have his fur scared off him.

I brought the weather up again just to point out how all this works on all markets

 

[rajesh.sadhanala]

Raj, you are very welcome. This chart stuff is way too much fun.

I'll answer your previous question next. There are many like instances going on with many of the markets. This is the problem with trading. There are so many opportunities at one time.
I'm glad you like my usage of the TL's, as they have proven effective. I would like to recommend Kavima's thread for your viewership at http://www.traderji.com/futures/534...-levels-median-line-charts-11.html#post597579.

Kavima uses pitchforks, producing the similar results that TL's do.

Every point u explain makes me think a lot. Your explanation is awesome and when I point something what If it is doesn't happen, the way u explain shows ur conviction and ur preparation and adjustment according to the situation.

After your recommendation, I would definitely go through the Kavima thread.

Regards

 

[rajesh.sadhanala]

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I wanted to post the 4-hour and the daily of the Aussie to give an even better idea of what is going on.
What we see happening is the very strong move that was needed to take out that cluster event at 1.0258. After it was move, it was still contained under the TL. The TL will and should act as containment for price action. The problem is the TL is sharply ascending to contain for a move that will eventually bring forth a sharp move south.

The daily brings on a more broader look of price action. In using the TL, the only effective use is on the 4-hour, considering it was drawn off the 4-hour. Nevertheless, the trajectory on the daily shows an apex that is formed with the SD channel line at the bottom of the cloud. The cloud has not been hit yet and it is fresh. What that tells me is is this market does make it all the way to 1.0445, then from there, it is going to be a sharp reversal.

Now I got to put the breaks on and explain the difference in apexes. Kavima's expertise is pitchforks, and he will also agree with this comment. An apex is a very strong S or R. With TL's, it simply means the corrective move has expired, and also met up with the S or R from the current trend. An apex with an SD channel does not carry the same implications. If higher TF's are agreeing then the peak or dip of an SD channel simply means a sharp reversal lies ahead.
I used the SD channel as a confluence with the all important fresh hit on the cloud and the TL which is still going to contain price action.

I got your point about the containment of price action and how far we should expect the move if it turns otherwise.

Can explain what is SD channel. Good nite Paul.

Regards
Raj

 

[tradetogain]

volatility in crude has increased.this sort of behaviour is normally associted with tops/bottoms.considering the recent move of crude i think it is getting ready for a fall.i am waiting.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Kavima's thread will add a perspective to my usage of the TL's. There is no doubt in my mind he is a pro with the pitchfork. So, you will learn much from his expertise in the pitchfork, just like you have been learning much from my expertise in balancing the TL's with my S&R's and the ichimoku.

With regards to your other question, the SD channel is a standard deviation channel. The extreme ends of the channel usually act as pretty good S or R as long as the upper TF's agree with the scenario; however, the SD channel is not to be used as a measure of S or R. When the top or bottom is hit, then I go to the other aspects of the methodology to determine the reversal. When the reversal happens it will be quite powerful because it has reached an extreme reading within the deviation from the median cycle.
Watch for the higher TF's in that case. If they are dominant, then it nullifies the readings on the lower, because a new cycle is evolving. This is why the direction of the channels change.

Every point u explain makes me think a lot. Your explanation is awesome and when I point something what If it is doesn't happen, the way u explain shows ur conviction and ur preparation and adjustment according to the situation.

After your recommendation, I would definitely go through the Kavima thread.

Regards

 

[4xpipcounter]

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The question in another thread was where to take profits on this position. The rectangular area shows the cluster S, and the perfect bounce we got from that area. Possibly before today's session is concluded, we are about to have another strong breakaway move, if not in tomorrow's. We are approaching the apex of where the TL's meet, and there is also another evidence that I will show in my next post.
It is also very clear in my Weekly Forecast the personal bias I have for this pair.
Like the say on the old-time radio shows, "Stay tuned for the exciting conclusion."