Some of my forecasts

[rajesh.sadhanala]

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This was also the pair I was talking about 11 hours ago. The horizontal line I drew shows the point the TL was broken. Price action corrected back to it, continued higher, but was still contained under the WP at 1.3869, as the peak was 1.3868.

The next stop on the downside, other than the obvious tenken and kijun, is going to be the cluster event at 1.3651. That becomes a decision point. If it holds then we head up to the bottom of the daily cloud at 1.3946. If the former is taken out convincingly, then that puts 1.3585 on the radar, with circa 1.3651 being new R. If 1.3651 is broken consistently, then that should also mark we are back in the downtrend.
My bias is that the level contains, and price will be thrusted north again. It is my opinion current price action is all building to a climax around 1.3946.

For those that like to crosscheck, keep your eye on the EUR/CHF if that happens.

It seems that 1.3651 is held. The way it has moved up is quite interesting. The last candle has negated previous 5 candles. Quite a strong move. Intersting whether it holds there to see if can move further up to 1.3946.

How do u handle such sudden moves. In case if u do ancipate, how do u react? do u go back to the blackboard and watch the charts again to identify the strength of the move.

Regards
Raj

 

[4xpipcounter]

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There is a 1-2-3 formation going north and south. When either 3 is broken, the strong move will ensue.

Here's the tidbits for my bias:
1. The daily cloud has not been touched.
2. The trend's yearly cycle will be completed at 1.3972, which has not been hit yet.
3. In my Weekly Forecast, I spoke of the momentum still pointing north. It has just taken all week for it to be fulfilled.
4. For cross-check fans, the USD/CHF still has a ways to go south, and the EUR/CHF is starting to get ripe, but still does not appear to be ready. This means the EUR/USD has to move north.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Raj, my original conjecture could have been wrong of my bias for the move north. I could have taken the position after the TL was hit.

It is also those areas that sudden moves are made (That was a strong cluster S, so it was predictable.). The way to trade a bounce off of a TL is 1st, never chase the trade. If you know the reversal will ensue at that point, then just have an entry position ready to go.
If it is the TL you want to trade, then wait for the next candle and use the dip of the previous one as your stop.
If the TL was broken, then wait for the correction back to it, then enter the trade. That type of entry would be similar to the scenario when the UP TL was broken, and we were talking about the correction to 1.3815.
The nice thing about an apex on the side is that we are approaching a no-lose situation. One TL or the other has to be broken. Wait for it to happen, don't chase the trade, wait for the correction back to the TL, then jump in and go for the ride. That also includes the 1-2-3 break. There are other aspects of my methodology that suggest this pair is headed higher, so the entry was already ascertained.

The reason the USD/CAD is having so many problems and the ride to the 1.1000's has been delayed is because of the TL break on Aug. 2nd. It was broken, but never corrected. I have said os many times that all TL breaks have to be corrected.

It seems that 1.3651 is held. The way it has moved up is quite interesting. The last candle has negated previous 5 candles. Quite a strong move. Intersting whether it holds there to see if can move further up to 1.3946.

How do u handle such sudden moves. In case if u do ancipate, how do u react? do u go back to the blackboard and watch the charts again to identify the strength of the move.

Regards
Raj

 

[4xpipcounter]

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This is a picture of the AUD/USD showing the same kind of setup. The major difference is that the cloud was not hit. This is one of my live accounts, as my demo is giving me problems.
We do have the upper and lower 1-2-3 formation, and if I drew the TL's, they would show the same characteristics.

It does appear the WR1's for bother pairs are on the radar at 1.4011 and 1.0501.

 

[4xpipcounter]

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I've been waiting awhile for the pair to break out. First, ignore the black TL.
Notice the wick on today's candle. The dip was 84.44, and the TL break was 84.59.

The pair will now see some R at 86.59, then it will be a clear shot to 88.51, and then 90.54.

 

[rajesh.sadhanala]

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There is a 1-2-3 formation going north and south. When either 3 is broken, the strong move will ensue.

Here's the tidbits for my bias:
1. The daily cloud has not been touched.
2. The trend's yearly cycle will be completed at 1.3972, which has not been hit yet.
3. In my Weekly Forecast, I spoke of the momentum still pointing north. It has just taken all week for it to be fulfilled.
4. For cross-check fans, the USD/CHF still has a ways to go south, and the EUR/CHF is starting to get ripe, but still does not appear to be ready. This means the EUR/USD has to move north.

Got your point. I love the way u explain things.

Regards
Raj

 

[rajesh.sadhanala]

Raj, my original conjecture could have been wrong of my bias for the move north. I could have taken the position after the TL was hit.

It is also those areas that sudden moves are made (That was a strong cluster S, so it was predictable.). The way to trade a bounce off of a TL is 1st, never chase the trade. If you know the reversal will ensue at that point, then just have an entry position ready to go.
If it is the TL you want to trade, then wait for the next candle and use the dip of the previous one as your stop.
If the TL was broken, then wait for the correction back to it, then enter the trade. That type of entry would be similar to the scenario when the UP TL was broken, and we were talking about the correction to 1.3815.
The nice thing about an apex on the side is that we are approaching a no-lose situation. One TL or the other has to be broken. Wait for it to happen, don't chase the trade, wait for the correction back to the TL, then jump in and go for the ride. That also includes the 1-2-3 break. There are other aspects of my methodology that suggest this pair is headed higher, so the entry was already ascertained.

The reason the USD/CAD is having so many problems and the ride to the 1.1000's has been delayed is because of the TL break on Aug. 2nd. It was broken, but never corrected. I have said os many times that all TL breaks have to be corrected.

So much information in this post.
Yep.. never chase the trade that is very true. Good idea to keep an order if the conviction is so true that there may be reversal unless its a falling knife

The entry mentioned by you are very similar to trading with pivots. Enter on a pullback or after taking previous high.

I got ur point on USD/CAD.. since there is no pullback, it has to move 2 mnths sideways to ascertain the move.

Regards
Raj

 

[4xpipcounter]

Even a "falling knife" has a context to it. Any strong move has sprung from a strong confluential area, like the recent move on the EUR/USD. It was stopped in its tracks by the upper TL. Once it is broken, then the move will pick up steam again, then we'll get a correction, and then another move north.
This is why I m an advocate of stationary S&R's. After all, if the previous parts of the methodology already suggest a strong break north, and then a strong pullback, then would it not be beneficial to know where the pullback is going to be, then take advantage of the next strong move? My WR1 is 1.4011, so it suggest to me the initial break of the TL might be contained. That will be my TP. After the move south from the proximity of 1.4011, then I'll look for a consolidated move north, and then it should be read for The Move--that is south.

BTW, I know the term "chasing the trade" is like a cliche, but it is so true. The markets do have their predictable ebb and flows, and so it is up to use as traders to discern that, then join in the fun. This is why this "predictable ebb and flow seems to indicate that 1.4011 is next on the radar.

So much information in this post.
Yep.. never chase the trade that is very true. Good idea to keep an order if the conviction is so true that there may be reversal unless its a falling knife

The entry mentioned by you are very similar to trading with pivots. Enter on a pullback or after taking previous high.

I got ur point on USD/CAD.. since there is no pullback, it has to move 2 mnths sideways to ascertain the move.

Regards
Raj

 

[rajesh.sadhanala]

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This is a picture of the AUD/USD showing the same kind of setup. The major difference is that the cloud was not hit. This is one of my live accounts, as my demo is giving me problems.
We do have the upper and lower 1-2-3 formation, and if I drew the TL's, they would show the same characteristics.

It does appear the WR1's for bother pairs are on the radar at 1.4011 and 1.0501.

I was waiting that bottom of the cloud might get hit before it moves up again but its in broad range consolidation of 1.012 and 1.037. These two points are point 2 of 1-2-3 formation.

Regards
Raj

 

[forexworld]

Aud/usd well supported above 200 day sma and daily tenken sen, stoch and macd pointing north movements,