Some of my forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

I slightly altered your chart by drawing some of my lines on yours.

I first took note of the chinkou, and this could be of benefit to other readers, and an advance preview of when I begin the series on the chinkou. The red line is not meant to be that of an S or R but to simply point out where the chinkou broke on top of the candle, and the corresponding current candle that created the action. When the chinkou crosses the candle heading UP, that is a bullish sign or signal. Look at that current candle where it is with relation to the tenken and kijun-- sitting right on top of both. That confluence makes for some outstanding support, and then you add the bullish sign from the chinkou. The only problem would be the candle is still under the cloud, but that would have still been a trade worth taking, then ride the chinkou as a trailing stop as per my previous instructions.

Once above the cloud, look for level areas in the past to determine signs of R. Notice the last candle how the line acted perfectly as R. It could get past it and head to the next. If it makes it that high, then watch for a possible reversal. The altimeter would be saying it is time to come back south. This could also be a good area to start trailing the stop with the 4-hour. In other words (This is only a conceptual idea what to expect concerning limited information.), look at the reading of the kijun 3 candles back. If that is touched, then the reversal may have begun.

GMR Infrastructure

What makes it so powerful reversal that it is not stopping instead of going beyond OB zone.

What can be consider as a reversal point here? It is just below next R.

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[4xpipcounter]

VJAY, my thought was that the questions have been excellent, because the "thnaks button has been getting hit on the queries, so it shows those are the types of questions that people are being benefited.

"Expert views"? It's just the charts. WE just want to be the best in the business at reading them so they lead to profitable trades for us.

Thanks.

Dear trade4joisar,
Nice charts ...good observations too...this would help to get some expert views from paul....thats way we too learn a lot.....

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Weekly S&R's--011512

The edit button is missing. Note the correction on the NZD/USD:
NZD/USD 0.8149 0.8055 0.7999 0.7885 0.7829 0.7735

I'm in the middle, still, of the Weekly Forecast, and something did not look right.

R3 r2 r1 s1 s2 s3
eur/usd 1.2928 1.2812 1.2743 1.2603 1.2534 1.2418
usd/jpy 77.32 77.15 77.04 76.84 76.73 76.56
gbp/usd 1.5584 1.5463 1.5389 1.5243 1.5169 1.5048
usd/chf 0.9709 0.9623 0.9571 0.9467 0.9415 0.9329
eur/chf 1.2166 1.2122 1.2095 1.2041 1.2014 1.1970
aud/usd 1.0553 1.0446 1.0381 1.0253 1.0188 1.0081
usd/cad 1.0414 1.0331 1.0282 1.0182 1.0133 1.0050
nzd/usd 0.7842 0.7751 0.7697 0.7587 0.7533 0.7442
eur/gbp 0.8429 0.8358 0.8315 0.8229 0.8186 0.8115
eur/jpy 99.15 98.41 97.96 97.08 96.63 95.89
gbp/jpy 119.69 118.85 118.35 117.35 116.85 116.01
eur/aud 1.2522 1.2413 1.2347 1.2215 1.2149 1.2040

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Weekly Forecast--011512

I don't know what happened to my edit button, but here's the complete Weekly forecast:

EUR/USD: With the strong reversal last week, this pair will keep us in suspense as to just when the MT reversal will be. It is expected to see the pair continue to the WS2 at 1.2534 this week. There is a possibility it could continue to the mid1.2400s, but if the WS2 contains, then we should see the pair peak at the WR1 at 1.2743.

GBP/USD: This pair is very close to make an even strong move south. All of a sudden, 1.5567 is not only MT containment, but it is almost unattainable for a long time. This week any shot of moving higher will be limited to the WR1 at 1.5389 or possibly the WR2 at 1.5463. Watch for 1.5031 over coming weeks. If that is taken out convincingly, then the low at 1.3503 established in Jan. 09 is on the radar.

USD/CHF: I mentioned last week that we should be seeing a move (Words to that effect.) to the low-.9900s. Last weeks strong ending further confirmed that. That WS1 is .9467, and that may not be hit this week, as the pair should be marching on to the WR2 at .9463 and could be higher.

EUR/CHF: The WR1-hourly kijun combo at 1.2095 might be containment this week as we should see the move south continue to the WS2 at 1.2014.

AUD/USD: As of this writing, the WS1 at 1.0253 was hit. Provided it contains, then we will have one last leg north, as from that point the R zone from 1.04451.0495 will be hit this week. If it is pierced convincingly then we head to the WS2 at 1.0189, and the broad range consolidation continues.

USD/CAD: The favored MT scenario is for the UP to continue and eventually take out the recent top at 1.0657. As of this writing, the WR1 at 1.0281 was already hit, and we had a strong reversal back to the WP. It appears the consolidative process is going to continue. The WS2-daily TL combo at 1.0134 needs to hold or the MT outlook changes drastically.

NZD/USD: As of this writing, the WS1 at .7885 was hit, and we had a sharp reversal. As long as the WS1 holds, then we should be in the middle of the final leg north. The WR2 at .8045 will be hit, and if broken, it will clear the way to .8106. Im now looking for that crica area to contain before the big move south.

EUR/GBP: Last weeks strong bearish finish did not disappoint, as this pair is headed to .8167, as that circa area will be the negotiating point for the drive that will head north the rest of the year. A strong drop this week to the WS2 at .8186, and even a little lower could help bring an end to the trip south.

EUR/JPY: Last week strong reversal has now put the WS2 at 96.03 for this week virtually on the radar. The drop should go lower towards the MS2 at 96.12, and even the WS3 at 95.90.

GBP/JPY: The strong bearish finish last week has forced this pair to turn the corner, as it was key in determining a future directive for it. The WS2 at 116.84 is on the radar and a further drop to the WS3-MS3 at 116.01, 115.97 could also be seen. MT, the YS1 at 113.01 is now on the radar. After a bounce from that area, well see the drop continue to the YS2 at 106.53. Overall, it is going south for the entire year.

EUR/AUD: Its hard to believe this pair is dipping deeper yet. The WS1 at 1.2231 will be hit this week, and the WS2 at 1.2147 could also be bit. The pair does forewarn to keep the stops close as it is due for the huge reversal. The longer it waits, the bigger it will be.

These are the first 4. I will edit this post when I have finished it.


EUR/USD: With the strong reversal last week, this pair will keep us in suspense as to just when the MT reversal will be. It is expected to see the pair continue to the WS2 at 1.2534 this week. There is a possibility it could continue to the mid1.2400s, but if the WS2 contains, then we should see the pair peak at the WR1 at 1.2743.

GBP/USD: This pair is very close to make an even strong move south. All of a sudden, 1.5567 is not only MT containment, but it is almost unattainable for a long time. This week any shot of moving higher will be limited to the WR1 at 1.5389 or possibly the WR2 at 1.5463. Watch for 1.5031 over coming weeks. If that is taken out convincingly, then the low at 1.3503 established in Jan. 09 is on the radar.

USD/CHF: I mentioned last week that we should be seeing a move (Words to that effect.) to the low-.9900s. Last weeks strong ending further confirmed that. That WS1 is .9467, and that may not be hit this week, as the pair should be marching on to the WR2 at .9623 and could be higher.

EUR/CHF: The WR1-hourly kijun combo at 1.2095 might be containment this week as we should see the move south continue to the WS2 at 1.2014.

 

[trade4joisar]

I slightly altered your chart by drawing some of my lines on yours.

I first took note of the chinkou, and this could be of benefit to other readers, and an advance preview of when I begin the series on the chinkou. The red line is not meant to be that of an S or R but to simply point out where the chinkou broke on top of the candle, and the corresponding current candle that created the action. When the chinkou crosses the candle heading UP, that is a bullish sign or signal. Look at that current candle where it is with relation to the tenken and kijun-- sitting right on top of both. That confluence makes for some outstanding support, and then you add the bullish sign from the chinkou. The only problem would be the candle is still under the cloud, but that would have still been a trade worth taking, then ride the chinkou as a trailing stop as per my previous instructions.

Once above the cloud, look for level areas in the past to determine signs of R. Notice the last candle how the line acted perfectly as R. It could get past it and head to the next. If it makes it that high, then watch for a possible reversal. The altimeter would be saying it is time to come back south. This could also be a good area to start trailing the stop with the 4-hour. In other words (This is only a conceptual idea what to expect concerning limited information.), look at the reading of the kijun 3 candles back. If that is touched, then the reversal may have begun.

GMR Infrastructure

What makes it so powerful reversal that it is not stopping instead of going beyond OB zone.

What can be consider as a reversal point here? It is just below next R.

free image hosting

Here you are talking about reading kjun values 3 candles back right?
If yes we are reading price below clouds which is far below

If no then as i am learning ichimoku, it will be great if you can also put something on chart also with your text?

I know i might be asking too much but i don't have choice

 

[4xpipcounter]

And if you don't ask, I'll send my druids to India to torment you the rest of your life.
Actually, your questions are creating a spark, so I'm glad to see it.
For now, the kijun, 3 candles back, is below the cloud. In this case, what you are allowing for is in sharp move through the cloud for the trade to stil stay alive. As soon as the market begins to consolidate or heads south, the kijun will level, If it continues moving sharply north, the kijun will be in the cloud and on top of it in no time.

Also, consider something else. In a sharp uptrend, that is above the cloud, the odds are next to nil that price will go through the bottom of it, so at this point, odds are next to nil the stop will be hit.

Considering you have perfect clarity on this part of it, I probably won't need to add text in this case, bu let me know where additional clarity might be needed.
I'm close to a visit with the sandman, so it might be 8 hours <> that I will respond.

I slightly altered your chart by drawing some of my lines on yours.

I first took note of the chinkou, and this could be of benefit to other readers, and an advance preview of when I begin the series on the chinkou. The red line is not meant to be that of an S or R but to simply point out where the chinkou broke on top of the candle, and the corresponding current candle that created the action. When the chinkou crosses the candle heading UP, that is a bullish sign or signal. Look at that current candle where it is with relation to the tenken and kijun-- sitting right on top of both. That confluence makes for some outstanding support, and then you add the bullish sign from the chinkou. The only problem would be the candle is still under the cloud, but that would have still been a trade worth taking, then ride the chinkou as a trailing stop as per my previous instructions.

Once above the cloud, look for level areas in the past to determine signs of R. Notice the last candle how the line acted perfectly as R. It could get past it and head to the next. If it makes it that high, then watch for a possible reversal. The altimeter would be saying it is time to come back south. This could also be a good area to start trailing the stop with the 4-hour. In other words (This is only a conceptual idea what to expect concerning limited information.), look at the reading of the kijun 3 candles back. If that is touched, then the reversal may have begun.


Here you are talking about reading kjun values 3 candles back right?
If yes we are reading price below clouds which is far below

If no then as i am learning ichimoku, it will be great if you can also put something on chart also with your text?

I know i might be asking too much but i don't have choice

 

[trade4joisar]

And if you don't ask, I'll send my druids to India to torment you the rest of your life.
Actually, your questions are creating a spark, so I'm glad to see it.
For now, the kijun, 3 candles back, is below the cloud. In this case, what you are allowing for is in sharp move through the cloud for the trade to stil stay alive. As soon as the market begins to consolidate or heads south, the kijun will level, If it continues moving sharply north, the kijun will be in the cloud and on top of it in no time.

Also, consider something else. In a sharp uptrend, that is above the cloud, the odds are next to nil that price will go through the bottom of it, so at this point, odds are next to nil the stop will be hit.

Considering you have perfect clarity on this part of it, I probably won't need to add text in this case, bu let me know where additional clarity might be needed.
I'm close to a visit with the sandman, so it might be 8 hours <> that I will respond.

Thanks for your comments.

1. So what will happen when kjun will be in the cloud & on top of it ?
We are already in OB zone

2. I do not understood this.

 

[trade4joisar]

I would like to discuss regularly like this & i think then your thread will occupy.

Should i create new thread something like " Ichimoku & live discussion" & we will discuss there?

This is because i can see your most of thread is occupy with forex discussion & i don't want other viewers to get diverted with our dicussion.

BTW, i am enjoying this very much.

 

[trade4joisar]

Re: Adani Power

It would seem that way. The only thing is the cloud is now support, and I'm looking at it with regards to price action. That was not a very strong candle after the strong 3-day move north. It will look more convincing if the bottom is taken out, and there is a close inside the cloud. This will be interesting to see what the weekly looks like. If it just hit the bottom of the tenken (Which I doubt it made it that far yet on the weekly.), then the ST reversal should be underway. It would be more sure. If the weekly is still in the middle of nowhere, then that is a confluence that is lacking that could have helped.
Nevertheless, watch for a close back in side the cloud. This would only be a correction as long the the TL's hold up. If they are broken, then this market is back in the DOWN.

Before you answer about seperate thread, i will post this to get your comments fast . Sorry for that . And if you say yes then i will copy all these discussion in that thread.

I can see sharp turnaround in chikonu, any signal . Here it took bottom of cloud as a support and closed out of cloud.

Attached weekly chart to know where it is headed.

Now what you see here?

Daily chart

Weekly chart

 

[trade4joisar]

Re: Rcom

Wow! I looks that first level was hit rather nicely.

For the most part, that is the case. A candle breaks through the top of the cloud, then that is a bullish signal or condition. There are other things that help in determining that:
1. The position of the tenken and kijun. If they are both hot on the trial of the candle, such as this chart, then here is little doubt it is going higher. However, if the tenken and kijun are buried under the cloud, that is a warning.
2. Another thing to consider is the next higher TF, and in this case, it would be the weekly. I'd venture a safe guess the candle is still buried under the cloud on the weekly. That is saying the candle still has plenty of room to move on the weekly, which means it bullish on the daily.

The next thing R to look for is the level where the recent bullish cloud topped out at. Check your weekly and see if that level would still keep you under the weekly cloud. If that is the case, then you have a good chance the market will continue to rise to that level .

The tenken and kijun are just as important as each other when working together. You do look for the tenken to have crossed over the kijun to confirm the UP. You look for the candle to cross over both to confirm the UP .They also are giving mixed signals, which is a warning, it they have strongly diverged from each other.
In using stops, you want to use the kijun 3 candles back. The tenken is only a measure of the last 9 candles which only represents 1/3 of a typical cycle, and so the tenken will be hit during a trend. A candle closing under it is a warning the trend might be changing. If it touches the kijun, then really throw UP the yellow flags. If it closes under it, or hits the level 3 candles back, or if the tenken crossed the kijun, then quickly call your broker, or hit the close button.

When the candle is inside the cloud ,that is an indication price could go either way, because it has entered the equilibrium zone. If the tenken and kijun are following closely, then it could make for a high risk, yet, low pip stop trade. We'll get into it later, but the chinkou is also a strong indicator of what to expect in price action.

Hopefully, my goal is to have the series on the ichimoku completed this week.

What do you mean by this?

Same here. Chikonu has sharp turn around, any singal?
In daily Tenken is now above cloud, any signal?

Also attached weekly chart. It seems like it has some space to go up. But here i want to know how can we see that once it will touch bottom of cloud then there will be reversal OR it will try to go above OR touch top of the cloud in weekly chart.

Daily chart

Weekly chart