Weekly Review--010812
EUR/USD: It appears there will be more of the same for this pair this week, except it could be tempering its attitude a little. The following week, it should start showing signs of exhaustion, and then the huge reversal will be imminent. For this week, a correction could be seen to the hourly bottom of the cloud at 1.2820. The WR1 is 1.2822, so that will make for a nice containment area. It would still pay to watch for a reaction once arrived at that point. We have a chance of the WR2 at 1.2925.
The rally stopped exactly half way between the WR1 and WR2 at 1.2877
USD/JPY: This pair is boring me to death. Its almost like when I know I have to forecast it, I cringe. The low down is simple. I will say this. When it does break out, it could catch us all napping. When there is a double-digit range for the week, its not good.
Okay, enough dirty laundry. We head to the WS2 at 76.55, and then the WR2 at 77.35. Some excitement could begin for this pair if the WS2 is taken out convincingly.
Things are getting worse for this pair as it was the worse performing week in the history of it76.7677.03 for a 27-pip spread for the week.
GBP/USD: Similar to its cousin, the EUR/USD, we are getting close to a MT correction. By the looks of things, this pairs move south could be over this week, especially if the WS2 at 1.5264 is hit. That is the favored scenario with the bottom of the 4-hour cloud WR1 combo at 1.5506 capping off the move north this week.
A strong spike, one hour from the close of the week took the pair to 1.5232, and the move north was capped off 6 pips short at .15500.
USD/CHF: With the break of the weekly cloud, it means this pair is heading higher. It still forewarns that in 3-4 weeks a big drop is due. What is now a bearish cloud will drop even lower which will tip the pairs altimeter. At the beginning of the week, expect a correction back to the WS1 at .9473, and then it will shove it in gear for the WR2 at .9703. Im expecting another circa 200-point move north from there before we see the MT reversal.
The dip was a little further than I thought as it missed the WS2 (.9399) by 7 pips and only peaked at .9594.
EUR/CHF: This pair is behaving similarly to the USD/JPY. Watch for the WR2 and the WS2 at 1.2181 and 1.2113 respectively. It will probably head south to start the week.
The peak was only 1.2159, 6 pips short of the WR!, and then it reversed and finally broke into the 1.2000s, as the dip was 1.2079
AUD/USD: This pair is making things even more interesting for the Aussie crosses. While most of the USD pairs, the USD looks strong, against the AUD the USD still looks weak. There is going to be very solid MT containment at 1.0484, and it still appears that level is going to be hit, before the reversal. For this week the daily kijun appears to be solid containment at 1.0123, which is also the WS2 . From there the move north should land at the WR1 at 1.0282, and maybe the WR2 at 1.0333.
The daily kijun was solid containment as price was cared off 19 pips short of it at 1.0142. The pair promptly reversed and even broke the WR2 and headed to the peak at 1.0377. As it turned out the Aussie was the strongest performing single currency of the week.
USD/CAD: This pair has been in a large consolidation pattern since the recent MT peak was established at 1.0657 in the week of Oct. 7. This should confirm that at least this week the pair is headed higher. We should start this week with a ST consolidative pattern that will lead the pair to the MR1 at 1.0309 first, and then well see a reversal to the WS1 at 1.0224, and then the final reversal takes the pair to circa WR2 at 1.0400.
The pair took off north just 9 pips beyond the MR1 as the peak was 1.0318, then the reversal headed lower than expected to the dip at 1.0138. When the next reversal ensued, because of the dip being deeper, the final move fell short of the WR2 as it reached 1.0282.
NZD/USD: This pair is now at a point that it leaves in forecaster at a point of using interpretive skills of price action rather than strict forecasting. Having said that, and provided I have a good read on what is actually going on, /the dip that ended last week should continue to the circa MP at .7772 and WS1 at .7757 area. After that move has been completed the move should take the pair higher, even though it is preparing for a stronger MT drop. This weeks peak could be the WR2 at .7895.
BTW, the S&Rs have been getting tighter for 6 consecutive weeks. This should all be leading up to a tightened channel that will lead to the explosive break south.
The week had to be contained at the WR3 (.7971) at .7979. The continued move south that started the week did halt one pips short of the MP as the dip was .7773.
EUR/GBP: The drop continues as per my MT forecast. Ive been saying for quite awhile we are headed to the bottom of the daily cloud at .8167, and since the new year started I added the YS1 at .8111 as an additional target. Needless to say, it is still on the radar. The depth of the channels and the implications with the clouds on all TFs are such to not even think of heading north with this pair. It is the hourly bottom of the cloud at .8266 that should contain this weeks price action, and allowing for a spike to the WR1 at .8279. OTT, it is straight south. We are getting close to the reversal. This week the pair has its eye on the WS2 at .8170, and possibly the WS3 at .8110. Notice the similarities with the MT outlook.
This week the pair took a break from the trip south and hit the peak at .8373, but reversal was sharp with a high-low spread on Friday of 100 pips (Thats huge for this pair. Just look at the size of the daily candle by comparison to the rest.
EUR/JPY: The WS1 at 97.21 should be used as a decision point this week. If that is broken convincingly, then we could be on an all out sprint to the YS1 at 93.03. For now, well say the WS1 contains, and if that is the case, then it makes the WR1 at 98.53 an easy target, and then we could get to the WR2 at 99.20 with some strong effort.
The high and low was accomplished on Friday as the candle engulfed the whole week98.8097.18.
GBP/JPY: This weeks WS2 at 117.81 is going to provide very strong S. If it is broken, it will come with all the bells and whistles. Its doubtful it is going to happen as it should contain. If the DOWN continues at the beginning of the week, then it should be a huge flag once we dip under 118.00.
A look at the hourly chart will show the candle 2 hours from the close of the week. That huge wick is your bells and whistles as it broke the WS2 and headed to 117.27.
EUR/AUD: Watch for the WS1 at 1.2354 and MS2 at 1.2357 area to provide very strong S. That could be the area we get a reprieve from the sharp downtrend and see the MT reversal begin. MT, we could be on our way back to 1.3158, which is the YR1.
The pair peaked at 1.2503 then kept falling to the dip at 1.2297
Note: Ill keep this pair on the Weekly Forecast until the MT reversal is official. At least that is the plan for now.
