Some of my forecasts

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Re: NZD-- long term



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King Kiwi has been putting a thumpin' on the USD, along with anything else these days. (I won't post the crosses just to prove it.)

The chart is showing the fact it is getting primed up for another strong move north. And, here's where I love the stereotypes! First of all, I do not set my boundaries on the stochastics like most people, at 80 and 20. Mine are set at 85 and 15. So when mine are OB / OS, there's no argument. This is the 4-hour chart. By looking at the stochastics, most people would be jumping out of their long (I am long on this pair.), and hitting the sell button. Look at the divergence, and the part it diverged. It's OB. It should be sitting on top of the the kijun by now. What's the deal!?
Let me dispel a misnomer. (BTW, I have no vendetta against anyone. I'm just stating facts.) How many times have we read that indicators are useless, and that you cannot and make money using them? And then 4xpipcounter has this indicator enriched methodology, and he is making pips. What they say about indicators being useless is a half-baked idea. Now for that proof.

By all indications, price should have collapsed, and so it fulfills someones pessimism towards indicators (Hold on! I opened another can of worms.) Wrong! Price did not respond to the divergence because of strong momentum on the price action. The stereotype is that price is always supposed to respond to those patterns. That is not true! You have to use the stochastics, like any other oscillator, as a confluence. I didn't post the daily chart, but this is what I call a freight train. Just get out of the way, and let it do its thing.

You might ask, how did I peg .7474, and what am I so extremely confident we are headed that way. We are in the process of what I call a pattern of continuation. My WR1 is .7391. The hourly better shows what I am talking about here, but you can still see it on this 4-hour. Price hit the level. Usually there would be at least a 38.2% bounce off that to the WP. That did not happen, and price has consolidated above the mark. This means the next objective is .7474.

Getting back to the can of worms I opened. If someone is pessimistic towards indicators, that's fine. People trade successfully using price action, candlestick patterns, Elliot Wave, etc. That's good for them, but they're dead wrong when they say you can't trade and make money using indicators. When you visit this thread, it is indicator enriched.

BTW, this thread is still getting 125 knocks per day. I must have a lot of silent viewers. I still encourage all input, questions, and comments relative to this thread.



QUOTE=4xpipcounter;534342]Folks, I'm not kidding, but long term, the kiwi looks like it is on steroids. Against the USD, it is looking at getting to .7582, and it could go quick. When you consider what should be imminent reversal for the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and the fact the USD/JPY will be headed further north, for at least the time being. This means those 3 currencies as the cross with the kiwi is going to get spanked all over the forex map.
Look back at this post a few weeks from now, and then you'll see what I mean.
[/QUOTE]

dear pipcounter just one clarification from this chart, i also use stoch in my mech trad system,you said you use 15/85 in place of 20/80 for ob and os,but once crosed 80 leval then we will consider when triger line will cross indicator line, in my view 80/20and 15/85 will give same result the diff will be if once trig/indi line both cross 85 you consider it over baught without waiting for cross and then close the position or go short as required or any thing third,i will be obliged if you clarify it thanks in advance
 

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
Re: NZD-- long term

Ashwani, the rule is to wait for the cross, and for both lines to have crossed into OB/OS territory. Now, here's the catch. Oscillators, but their nature, are lagging. Just from my experience I have found the stochastics to lag less than the MACD or the Williams. Sometimes they even cross in advance. The object is once you get in that area is to be anticipatory. If I know both lines are there, momentum is waning, and it is approaching a key S or R, then that S or R becomes my signal to enter the trade.
The opposite of that scenario is true, such as the position with my NZD/USD, it became OB, but there was strong freight train-like momentum. There was also no real R around, except my MS1. You can also see by looking at the chart there is a ton of S.

BTW, I use the tenken and the kijun as targets when there is a crossover. The kijun is a very practical target when the stochs cross in the 85/15 area. The 80/20 lends itself to some false moves. I'd rather have a more sure move, and then, in turn, maybe lose an occasional trade here and there.
Another point concerning the stochastics, even though it is my favorite oscillator, it is the least part of my methodology. The ichimoku is my centerpiece or the cornerstone, my S&R's are my pride and joy because of their accuracy, and their ability to identify that time period's range, and then the TL's, which is my most recent addition, and they are distinctive in identifying certain types of price action.



dear pipcounter just one clarification from this chart, i also use stoch in my mech trad system,you said you use 15/85 in place of 20/80 for ob and os,but once crosed 80 leval then we will consider when triger line will cross indicator line, in my view 80/20and 15/85 will give same result the diff will be if once trig/indi line both cross 85 you consider it over baught without waiting for cross and then close the position or go short as required or any thing third,i will be obliged if you clarify it thanks in advance[/QUOTE]
 
Re: NZD-- long term

Ashwani, the rule is to wait for the cross, and for both lines to have crossed into OB/OS territory. Now, here's the catch. Oscillators, but their nature, are lagging. Just from my experience I have found the stochastics to lag less than the MACD or the Williams. Sometimes they even cross in advance. The object is once you get in that area is to be anticipatory. If I know both lines are there, momentum is waning, and it is approaching a key S or R, then that S or R becomes my signal to enter the trade.
The opposite of that scenario is true, such as the position with my NZD/USD, it became OB, but there was strong freight train-like momentum. There was also no real R around, except my MS1. You can also see by looking at the chart there is a ton of S.

BTW, I use the tenken and the kijun as targets when there is a crossover. The kijun is a very practical target when the stochs cross in the 85/15 area. The 80/20 lends itself to some false moves. I'd rather have a more sure move, and then, in turn, maybe lose an occasional trade here and there.
Another point concerning the stochastics, even though it is my favorite oscillator, it is the least part of my methodology. The ichimoku is my centerpiece or the cornerstone, my S&R's are my pride and joy because of their accuracy, and their ability to identify that time period's range, and then the TL's, which is my most recent addition, and they are distinctive in identifying certain types of price action.





dear pipcounter just one clarification from this chart, i also use stoch in my mech trad system,you said you use 15/85 in place of 20/80 for ob and os,but once crosed 80 leval then we will consider when triger line will cross indicator line, in my view 80/20and 15/85 will give same result the diff will be if once trig/indi line both cross 85 you consider it over baught without waiting for cross and then close the position or go short as required or any thing third,i will be obliged if you clarify it thanks in advance
[/QUOTE]

dear pip counter thanks,i under stand your point,once after listening from you what i realised,80% your and mine system is same,60% i am dependent on my sr/rs which gives me accurate result for every time frame, for rest 40% i depend on various indicators including stoch, i use pivot point support also,now macd i dont use ,i call it invester enemy indicator, williams i dont use ,my favourte, because give advance information before the move come thanks for your clarification, and what is this tls?
 

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
Re: NZD-- long term

Your rate of success goes up when you use a confluence of unlike indicators.

I did not know what you mean by "tis".


dear pip counter thanks,i under stand your point,once after listening from you what i realised,80% your and mine system is same,60% i am dependent on my sr/rs which gives me accurate result for every time frame, for rest 40% i depend on various indicators including stoch, i use pivot point support also,now macd i dont use ,i call it invester enemy indicator, williams i dont use ,my favourte, because give advance information before the move come thanks for your clarification, and what is this tls?[/QUOTE]
 

VJAY

Well-Known Member
Re: NZD-- long term

I think he mean tls ...TL's=Trend Line

Your rate of success goes up when you use a confluence of unlike indicators.

I did not know what you mean by "tis".




dear pip counter thanks,i under stand your point,once after listening from you what i realised,80% your and mine system is same,60% i am dependent on my sr/rs which gives me accurate result for every time frame, for rest 40% i depend on various indicators including stoch, i use pivot point support also,now macd i dont use ,i call it invester enemy indicator, williams i dont use ,my favourte, because give advance information before the move come thanks for your clarification, and what is this tls?
[/QUOTE]
 

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
Re: NZD-- long term

It's been one of those days. I was long the AUD/USD. I took a shower, and while I was in the shower, it spiked to my target of 1.0050, and reversed right back to the original level. I got back to the computer and noticed I had one less trade. I thought the broker pulled some monkey business, so I was getting ready to call. I noticed my closed position that hit the target. Unreal! I would have had egg on my face if I jumped my broker's case on that before checking.


:lol: :lol: :lol:[/QUOTE]
 
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