Some of my forecasts
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I'm a day and a swing trader. I do some scalping here and there just to maintain my sharpness on it, but I don't like it.
Timeframes? Like I said, consider all of them. After all, don't get too comfortable on a long if the 4-hour is showing upside momentum, but the monthly is seriously OB.
Some of the confirmations I shared. The EUR/USD had the confluence of support. The other TF's were not conflicting, so I jumped in.
Timeframes? Like I said, consider all of them. After all, don't get too comfortable on a long if the 4-hour is showing upside momentum, but the monthly is seriously OB.
Some of the confirmations I shared. The EUR/USD had the confluence of support. The other TF's were not conflicting, so I jumped in.
thank you paul... for brief explanatin.. are you swing trader ?.... and while you making trade entry.. which confirmations u take after reading charts..and u said you track multipl timeframes... what time frames will u consider for trade decisions... 
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K raaja, here's a live example, as I entered this long on the EUR/USD as a daytrade. In other words, I'll keep it up through Friday and take profits, which most likely will be my target of 1.4253.
Support and resistance comes in my forms. The greater the confluence, the greater the S or R. My 4-hour chart is showing a high probability that this is going to be a good trade. The candle is sitting on top of the cloud and the tenken. Price has gone sideways for awhile on the WP.
Let's assume I'm right. We need to find an R for a target. The MR3 is 1.4253, and 1.4253 would mark the daily range for the pair, so I figure that is a good target. I could have made it for 1.4272, which is my WR1, and it could very well be hit. I made it for the more conservative target, because I will be able to get away during the day, not manage the trade, and still feel good my target will be hit.
What you are really looking for on the entry is a strong confluence. This applies to the usage of all TF's. Look for the most dominant TF, and that would not necessarily mean the highest TF. It means the one with the strongest obviation. That should be what your entry revolves around. Scalpers get into trouble along these lines. They might be looking at the 5-min chart to go long, and the 4-hour is a freight train out of control. They lose big, and then blame the indicators.
Please let me know if you need additional clarity .
Re: Eur/gbp
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Here's an example of a pair getting ready to collapse. Even the hourly will show how this pair walked through my WR1, then was stopped (As per the chart.) at the WR2. That is what I call a continuation. In other words, it kept going to the WR2 without regard for the WR1. This means trouble when you disobey the signs. There should now be a correction back to the WR1. The stochastics is also very OB, and ready to cross, which would also indicate the WR2 should suffice as containment.
The stochastics has not crossed yet, but this is where you have to anticipate the cross before it happens because of the other evidences.
thanks for the above explaination(specifically your point on stoch)
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Here's an example of a pair getting ready to collapse. Even the hourly will show how this pair walked through my WR1, then was stopped (As per the chart.) at the WR2. That is what I call a continuation. In other words, it kept going to the WR2 without regard for the WR1. This means trouble when you disobey the signs. There should now be a correction back to the WR1. The stochastics is also very OB, and ready to cross, which would also indicate the WR2 should suffice as containment.
The stochastics has not crossed yet, but this is where you have to anticipate the cross before it happens because of the other evidences.
Weekly Preview--032011
EUR/USD: The pair is headed for a move south to begin the week. Longer term, this could be the beginning of the new DOWN, and the circa area will be the peak. A strong daily move through 1.3931 will be the indication the UP is over. On the flip side, if 1.3931 contains, then we could be headed to 1.4309, which would also allow for a slight spike out of the monthly cloud. That area needs to contain, or were pushing the 1.5000s
Price action stayed within mentioned parameters as the peak was 1.4247, and the dip was 1.4053
USD/JPY: My decades S1 at 78.02 got hit, and the explosive fun began. Price action is correcting the recent blast and should be contained above the daily kijun at 79.24. The upside will be contained, initially by the thin daily cloud at 82.79. However thin, it still represents a cluster event.
It was a range of 78 pips for the whole week, 80.7081.48.
GBP/USD: I think momentum is still pointing north for this pair. Even though 1.6165 may be the containment at the beginning of the week, the reversal should be contained by the weekly kijun at 1.5844, and still requires a firm break of 1.5742 to signal a trend change. As long as the downside contains, then we should see the previous weekly cloud peak at 1.6420 challenged.
The weekly cloud peak was challenged as the peak was 1.6400. The dip was 1.6007.
USD/CHF: This pair has had a very strong volatile mix. Id like to say this pair has a long correction to make considering last weeks price action, but I doubt it, as .9108 appears to be containment. On the next leg south, and after it wins the battle with last weeks low ta .8924, look for my MS3 at .8725 to be challenged.
The dip was contained above the .8924 at .8978. As a result, the peak went to .9198.
EUR/CHF: This pair is approaching major road construction, which is going to deter its recovery of the flash crash. The daily kijun bottom of the cloud combination is 1.2803, and that could be enough to resist price action. The MP is 1.2821. The MS1 4-hour TK combo at 1.2684 will be a decision point.
The pair started the week as a correction of the flash crash to 1.2736, well above the decision point. AS a result, it took off to the peak at 1.2961
AUD/USD: If current level is not containment, then the MS1 at 1.0030 will be, as we should see the weekly kijun at .9792 revisited. The monthly tenken is currently at .9269 which is also a possibility, but not this week.
This pair had all of a 4-pip pullback to start the week, then jetted to the peak and new high for the year at 1.0293.
USD/CAD: The 1.0020 level is a cluster event, and the upside this week could be contained at that point. If that area is broken, then we could be on our way to the weekly bottom of the cloud at 1.0389, but all that wont happen this week.
It was a tight week as it was for a lot of the pairs this week. This pair started the week continuing its trip south to .9730, then the reversal took it to .9845.
NZD/USD: This pair could go UP a little higher to start the week, but the .7362 area should be initial containment. The downside needs to be limited to .7241, and if that is the case, then the next drive north could take out the cluster event at .7410, and then head to the .7558 cluster area.
The pair spiked above .7558 to .7574. WE went sideways at .7362, and created a channel around the .7410 for 31 hours, then took off to the high.
EUR/GBP: The top of the daily cloud at .8738 needs to contain, or we are headed for a strong break of monthly kijun at .8781 on our way to the previous top of the weekly cloud at .8905. If the top of the cloud holds, then we are headed back to the daily kijun at .8613, where a strong break would be needed to take us to the bottom of the cloud at .8451. The preferable route is to see the move north completed, because it will pave the way to an excellent shorting opportunity. Not only will the circa area of .8905 present an excellent shorting opportunity, but the daily chart will also be very OB by then.
Were still on our way to .8905. The peak was .8810, and the week ended at exactly .8781.
EUR/JPY: This pair is looking very volatile. To start the week, there should be a strong move south to the 4-hour tenken at 112.60 and the kijun at 111.23. Afterward, we should get a strong reversal. I am hoping this is the week 115.63 gets taken out so that base near the bottom of the weekly cloud will be broken up.
This was a very tight week for the pair. There was a 198-pip range for the week from 115.53113.55, when the daily average range is 172.
GBP/JPY: This has a similar look to its cousin, the EUR/JPY. To start the week, we head south to the 4-hour tenken and kijun at 129.31 and 127.85, respectively. The only difference is that this pair has not finished inside the weekly cloud, which is leaving it increasingly suspect to a stronger move south.
Another tight range for the week at 132.97130.17
I totally missed it this week on all the Aussie pairs:
AUD/CAD: The weekly TK combo at .9916 could cap any rally, as this pair has its sights on the monthly kijun at .9536.
This pair started off north and never looked back, as it headed to 1.0074.
AUD/JPY: Fridays peak at 81.42 might be it for a long time for this pair. I dont like make bold statements, because those are the inevitable times I stick my foot in my mouth, but the bears look like they may be in full control of this market.
Yes, and the foot does not taste good as it headed straight north to 83.61
This was posted during Tokyo on Thursday:
The Aussie figures to get clobbered by most of its crosses tonight
AUD/USD: Short around 1.0139
AUD/CAD: Short around .9975
AUD/JPY: Short around 82.21
AUD/CHF: Short around .9241-- licking my chops on this one.
I hope no one was listening.
GBP/USD: This is a picture of a pair that is about to get crushed or it's about to take flight training.
Right now it is fighting it out with my WR1 at 1.6309. The MR1 is 1.6350, which is going to be an obstacle, and then it will be on to the WR2 at 1.6382. Once that point has been hit, then watch out! My projection is my Weekly Forecast is 1.6420. The one thing I did not know was what my WR2 was going to be.
Crush or flight training? I favor the crush. Simply put that red TL was drawn off the weekly chart, which is currently 1.6230. We need a close below that or this thing is taking off in a big fashion.
It got crushed, all the way to 1.6008.
NZD/USD: Folks, I'm not kidding, but long term, the kiwi looks like it is on steroids. Against the USD, it is looking at getting to .7582, and it could go quick. When you consider what should be imminent reversal for the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and the fact the USD/JPY will be headed further north, for at least the time being. This means those 3 currencies as the cross with the kiwi is going to get spanked all over the forex map.
Look back at this post a few weeks from now, and then you'll see what I mean.
This was my favorite call of the week. The peak was .7574, and kiwi crushed everything in sight , except the AUD, as that cross finished with a virtual doji.
EUR/USD: The pair is headed for a move south to begin the week. Longer term, this could be the beginning of the new DOWN, and the circa area will be the peak. A strong daily move through 1.3931 will be the indication the UP is over. On the flip side, if 1.3931 contains, then we could be headed to 1.4309, which would also allow for a slight spike out of the monthly cloud. That area needs to contain, or were pushing the 1.5000s
Price action stayed within mentioned parameters as the peak was 1.4247, and the dip was 1.4053
USD/JPY: My decades S1 at 78.02 got hit, and the explosive fun began. Price action is correcting the recent blast and should be contained above the daily kijun at 79.24. The upside will be contained, initially by the thin daily cloud at 82.79. However thin, it still represents a cluster event.
It was a range of 78 pips for the whole week, 80.7081.48.
GBP/USD: I think momentum is still pointing north for this pair. Even though 1.6165 may be the containment at the beginning of the week, the reversal should be contained by the weekly kijun at 1.5844, and still requires a firm break of 1.5742 to signal a trend change. As long as the downside contains, then we should see the previous weekly cloud peak at 1.6420 challenged.
The weekly cloud peak was challenged as the peak was 1.6400. The dip was 1.6007.
USD/CHF: This pair has had a very strong volatile mix. Id like to say this pair has a long correction to make considering last weeks price action, but I doubt it, as .9108 appears to be containment. On the next leg south, and after it wins the battle with last weeks low ta .8924, look for my MS3 at .8725 to be challenged.
The dip was contained above the .8924 at .8978. As a result, the peak went to .9198.
EUR/CHF: This pair is approaching major road construction, which is going to deter its recovery of the flash crash. The daily kijun bottom of the cloud combination is 1.2803, and that could be enough to resist price action. The MP is 1.2821. The MS1 4-hour TK combo at 1.2684 will be a decision point.
The pair started the week as a correction of the flash crash to 1.2736, well above the decision point. AS a result, it took off to the peak at 1.2961
AUD/USD: If current level is not containment, then the MS1 at 1.0030 will be, as we should see the weekly kijun at .9792 revisited. The monthly tenken is currently at .9269 which is also a possibility, but not this week.
This pair had all of a 4-pip pullback to start the week, then jetted to the peak and new high for the year at 1.0293.
USD/CAD: The 1.0020 level is a cluster event, and the upside this week could be contained at that point. If that area is broken, then we could be on our way to the weekly bottom of the cloud at 1.0389, but all that wont happen this week.
It was a tight week as it was for a lot of the pairs this week. This pair started the week continuing its trip south to .9730, then the reversal took it to .9845.
NZD/USD: This pair could go UP a little higher to start the week, but the .7362 area should be initial containment. The downside needs to be limited to .7241, and if that is the case, then the next drive north could take out the cluster event at .7410, and then head to the .7558 cluster area.
The pair spiked above .7558 to .7574. WE went sideways at .7362, and created a channel around the .7410 for 31 hours, then took off to the high.
EUR/GBP: The top of the daily cloud at .8738 needs to contain, or we are headed for a strong break of monthly kijun at .8781 on our way to the previous top of the weekly cloud at .8905. If the top of the cloud holds, then we are headed back to the daily kijun at .8613, where a strong break would be needed to take us to the bottom of the cloud at .8451. The preferable route is to see the move north completed, because it will pave the way to an excellent shorting opportunity. Not only will the circa area of .8905 present an excellent shorting opportunity, but the daily chart will also be very OB by then.
Were still on our way to .8905. The peak was .8810, and the week ended at exactly .8781.
EUR/JPY: This pair is looking very volatile. To start the week, there should be a strong move south to the 4-hour tenken at 112.60 and the kijun at 111.23. Afterward, we should get a strong reversal. I am hoping this is the week 115.63 gets taken out so that base near the bottom of the weekly cloud will be broken up.
This was a very tight week for the pair. There was a 198-pip range for the week from 115.53113.55, when the daily average range is 172.
GBP/JPY: This has a similar look to its cousin, the EUR/JPY. To start the week, we head south to the 4-hour tenken and kijun at 129.31 and 127.85, respectively. The only difference is that this pair has not finished inside the weekly cloud, which is leaving it increasingly suspect to a stronger move south.
Another tight range for the week at 132.97130.17
I totally missed it this week on all the Aussie pairs:
AUD/CAD: The weekly TK combo at .9916 could cap any rally, as this pair has its sights on the monthly kijun at .9536.
This pair started off north and never looked back, as it headed to 1.0074.
AUD/JPY: Fridays peak at 81.42 might be it for a long time for this pair. I dont like make bold statements, because those are the inevitable times I stick my foot in my mouth, but the bears look like they may be in full control of this market.
Yes, and the foot does not taste good as it headed straight north to 83.61
This was posted during Tokyo on Thursday:
The Aussie figures to get clobbered by most of its crosses tonight
AUD/USD: Short around 1.0139
AUD/CAD: Short around .9975
AUD/JPY: Short around 82.21
AUD/CHF: Short around .9241-- licking my chops on this one.
I hope no one was listening.
GBP/USD: This is a picture of a pair that is about to get crushed or it's about to take flight training.
Right now it is fighting it out with my WR1 at 1.6309. The MR1 is 1.6350, which is going to be an obstacle, and then it will be on to the WR2 at 1.6382. Once that point has been hit, then watch out! My projection is my Weekly Forecast is 1.6420. The one thing I did not know was what my WR2 was going to be.
Crush or flight training? I favor the crush. Simply put that red TL was drawn off the weekly chart, which is currently 1.6230. We need a close below that or this thing is taking off in a big fashion.
It got crushed, all the way to 1.6008.
NZD/USD: Folks, I'm not kidding, but long term, the kiwi looks like it is on steroids. Against the USD, it is looking at getting to .7582, and it could go quick. When you consider what should be imminent reversal for the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and the fact the USD/JPY will be headed further north, for at least the time being. This means those 3 currencies as the cross with the kiwi is going to get spanked all over the forex map.
Look back at this post a few weeks from now, and then you'll see what I mean.
This was my favorite call of the week. The peak was .7574, and kiwi crushed everything in sight , except the AUD, as that cross finished with a virtual doji.
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K.raaja, I may need you to further explain your question, because I've answered it in terms of the various ways there are to find supports and resistances and looking for confluences, etc. So, please tell me what else it is you need to know, because evidently, I did not explain myself well enough.
If you want to know how I calculate my proprietary S&R's, they are just that--"proprietary". I won't give my formula, but I will give the levels for the week, month, or year upon request.
As far as preference is concerned, each situation is different, and it is depended on the most dominant TF at that time.
Accompanied, is a weekly chart of the GBP/USD. The dominant chart is the daily, because it shows a clean break of that blue TL. My blue TL's are always drawn off the daily charts. With the clean break of the TL, it tells me we will probably get a pullback towards it, and then a huge downside move.
A very practical target for the week would be the kijun on the weekly. We're not going up because the daily said so. In looking at the weekly it shows the kijun as support, but it also shows the practical range, which is the distance from the current candle to the kijun, by comparison to the rest of the candles. It figures to be a strong move, so I could get more aggressive and say it could even hit the monthly tenken at 1.5637, but that does not seem practical in the absence of the unseen.
The following is my forecast for the GBP/USD, which the Weekly Forecasts will be posted in its entirety once I am finished:
Upside containment should be 1.6100, as we head to the weekly kijun at 1.5872. That will be a decision point.
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