Some of my forecasts
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Weekly Preview--032711
EUR/USD: It is my opinion this pair is in for a very short upper wick for the week. Any correction should be limited below the 4-hour tenken at 1.4137. Watch for 1.4028, as we will get a very strong move through that level, and then head to the daily kijun at 1.3886. The next stop is the weekly tenken at 1.3838.
We got the short wick on the weekly candle, but not quite the way I thought. I ended up being a bullish week as the peak was 1.4244.
USD/JPY: Im looking for this pair to move UP higher to start the week 81.88 could be containment, and there could be a spike to the bottom of the daily cloud at 82.53. Afterward, I look for a correction that will take the pair to the daily kijun at 79.98. That could be the springboard to get this pair moving up much higher. The thing to remember concerning this pair is that the decades S1 at 78.02. We had the volatile spike through it, and now we have begun progression towards much higher limits.
The daily cloud was taken out as the peak was 84.72.
GBP/USD: Upside containment should be 1.6100, as we head to the weekly kijun at 1.5872. That will be a decision point.
The dip was 1.5936 before the sharp reversal.
USD/CHF: This pair has broken above the daily TL, and so the pair appears ready to head north. Any correction should be limited above .9134, as the pair has its eye on next key R, which is the weekly tenken at .9349.
The peak was .9339 and the dip was ..9126.
EUR/CHF: Get ready for this pair, because it is getting ready for a strong move. Initial R to start the week will be a solid confluence between 1.297798. That area involves the top of the daily cloud and 2 TLs that are drawn off the 4-hour and daily charts. Support is going to be the 4-hour tenken at 1.2881. That will be a decision point. Either it contains, or there will be a very sharp move through it, and it is southward the rest of the week. The pair is also trapped within a weekly triangle with current parameters at 1.31701.2466.
That decision point was missed by 6 pips, as the dip was 1.2887. The solid confluence was taken out in favor of the weekly TL, as the peak was 1.3169.
AUD/USD: This pair has been tough to get a read on, and I will blame rather than my methodology or the TAs. IMO, it is the human that will falter and never my methodology nor the TAs.
We have gotten what appears to be another topping process. If 4-hour OB divergence has anything to say about this, then we are headed back to 1.0074. If monthly OB divergence has anything to say, laugh if you will, but we are headed to .9153. If my pattern of being wrong on this pair continues, then the top gets blown off, and we are headed to 1.0450. Im going to favor at least the pullback to 1.0074.
The second view was closer to the truth as the peak was 1.0389.
USD/CAD: I was making a lot of pips while this pair was moving inside of a very predictable channel. The predictability is no longer there, because we have essentially hit bottom, and that could be in the absence of seeing another strong thrust towards the .9400s. The deliberate price action has forged some doubts on whether this pair is ready to take off yet.
I still favor the upside break, but watch for .9840, as that will be a decision point. Once there, you will know the decision is made, as we will get a strong thrust through it, or a reversal. The next R will be the bottom of the daily cloud at .9918. We had a failure on the first attempt, and that is the nature of a 1st move such as that. That is another reason I favor the upside, as the cloud should give way for a move to 1.0011.
The decision point was challenged as the peak was .9825. The reversal took us to the dip at .9621.
NZD/USD: Kiwi should be through with flexing its muscle for awhile. The upside objective was met, and it took all of last week to do so. It is ready for a move to the 4-hour kijun at .7449, and then the daily kijun at .7385. Watch for a reaction at that point.
We never made it to the 4-hour kijun as the dip was .7488, and then the peak was .7681
EUR/GBP: There will be a further correction of the UP but unless we got a headfake out of the weekly cloud, we are headed to .8905 and most likely higher.
We are still on our way as the peak was .8852
EUR/JPY: Here we go again. Its viable to have a correction to circa 112.72, and then head back UP . The pair has rested inside the weekly cloud, and we are still waiting for a strong break north.
We got that strong move this week as the pair headed to the peak at 119.79.
GBP/JPY: If this pair gets above the daily cloud, currently at 133.01, things could get explosive. In the interim, look for at least a temporary trip south to the daily kijun at 129.32 and the tenken at 128.07.
There was no pullback as the pair headed to the peak at 135.80.
EUR/USD: Watch for the 1.4147 area. We did not get the strong move through 1.4028, as the dip was 1.4021. If 1.4147 is taken out, then my Weekly Forecast will be wrong, as the move straight UP is going to be swift.
Take a look at the next to the last 4-hour candle for the week, and you will now just how swift this move was.
EUR/AUD: This pair has one more trip south left before it is time to make a correction. Strong cluster support is seen in the 1.3577--1.3567 area.
The dip was 1.3602 before a very strong move ended the week.
GBP/NZD: The bottom of the daily cloud is 2.0821. That should be temporary containment. The correction should be back towards 2.1182. Overall, it looks like the bears are winning the battle. The next downside target after the correction should be around 2.0528, and possibly much lower.
We got the spike to 2.1213, then back in the DOWN.
AUD/USD: As per my forecast, we have reached that topping process, and this pair is due for a correction. The daily tenken at 1.0205 is on the radar, but it should go lower than that.
Still waiting for the topping process to complete itself.
EUR/USD: It is my opinion this pair is in for a very short upper wick for the week. Any correction should be limited below the 4-hour tenken at 1.4137. Watch for 1.4028, as we will get a very strong move through that level, and then head to the daily kijun at 1.3886. The next stop is the weekly tenken at 1.3838.
We got the short wick on the weekly candle, but not quite the way I thought. I ended up being a bullish week as the peak was 1.4244.
USD/JPY: Im looking for this pair to move UP higher to start the week 81.88 could be containment, and there could be a spike to the bottom of the daily cloud at 82.53. Afterward, I look for a correction that will take the pair to the daily kijun at 79.98. That could be the springboard to get this pair moving up much higher. The thing to remember concerning this pair is that the decades S1 at 78.02. We had the volatile spike through it, and now we have begun progression towards much higher limits.
The daily cloud was taken out as the peak was 84.72.
GBP/USD: Upside containment should be 1.6100, as we head to the weekly kijun at 1.5872. That will be a decision point.
The dip was 1.5936 before the sharp reversal.
USD/CHF: This pair has broken above the daily TL, and so the pair appears ready to head north. Any correction should be limited above .9134, as the pair has its eye on next key R, which is the weekly tenken at .9349.
The peak was .9339 and the dip was ..9126.
EUR/CHF: Get ready for this pair, because it is getting ready for a strong move. Initial R to start the week will be a solid confluence between 1.297798. That area involves the top of the daily cloud and 2 TLs that are drawn off the 4-hour and daily charts. Support is going to be the 4-hour tenken at 1.2881. That will be a decision point. Either it contains, or there will be a very sharp move through it, and it is southward the rest of the week. The pair is also trapped within a weekly triangle with current parameters at 1.31701.2466.
That decision point was missed by 6 pips, as the dip was 1.2887. The solid confluence was taken out in favor of the weekly TL, as the peak was 1.3169.
AUD/USD: This pair has been tough to get a read on, and I will blame rather than my methodology or the TAs. IMO, it is the human that will falter and never my methodology nor the TAs.
We have gotten what appears to be another topping process. If 4-hour OB divergence has anything to say about this, then we are headed back to 1.0074. If monthly OB divergence has anything to say, laugh if you will, but we are headed to .9153. If my pattern of being wrong on this pair continues, then the top gets blown off, and we are headed to 1.0450. Im going to favor at least the pullback to 1.0074.
The second view was closer to the truth as the peak was 1.0389.
USD/CAD: I was making a lot of pips while this pair was moving inside of a very predictable channel. The predictability is no longer there, because we have essentially hit bottom, and that could be in the absence of seeing another strong thrust towards the .9400s. The deliberate price action has forged some doubts on whether this pair is ready to take off yet.
I still favor the upside break, but watch for .9840, as that will be a decision point. Once there, you will know the decision is made, as we will get a strong thrust through it, or a reversal. The next R will be the bottom of the daily cloud at .9918. We had a failure on the first attempt, and that is the nature of a 1st move such as that. That is another reason I favor the upside, as the cloud should give way for a move to 1.0011.
The decision point was challenged as the peak was .9825. The reversal took us to the dip at .9621.
NZD/USD: Kiwi should be through with flexing its muscle for awhile. The upside objective was met, and it took all of last week to do so. It is ready for a move to the 4-hour kijun at .7449, and then the daily kijun at .7385. Watch for a reaction at that point.
We never made it to the 4-hour kijun as the dip was .7488, and then the peak was .7681
EUR/GBP: There will be a further correction of the UP but unless we got a headfake out of the weekly cloud, we are headed to .8905 and most likely higher.
We are still on our way as the peak was .8852
EUR/JPY: Here we go again. Its viable to have a correction to circa 112.72, and then head back UP . The pair has rested inside the weekly cloud, and we are still waiting for a strong break north.
We got that strong move this week as the pair headed to the peak at 119.79.
GBP/JPY: If this pair gets above the daily cloud, currently at 133.01, things could get explosive. In the interim, look for at least a temporary trip south to the daily kijun at 129.32 and the tenken at 128.07.
There was no pullback as the pair headed to the peak at 135.80.
EUR/USD: Watch for the 1.4147 area. We did not get the strong move through 1.4028, as the dip was 1.4021. If 1.4147 is taken out, then my Weekly Forecast will be wrong, as the move straight UP is going to be swift.
Take a look at the next to the last 4-hour candle for the week, and you will now just how swift this move was.
EUR/AUD: This pair has one more trip south left before it is time to make a correction. Strong cluster support is seen in the 1.3577--1.3567 area.
The dip was 1.3602 before a very strong move ended the week.
GBP/NZD: The bottom of the daily cloud is 2.0821. That should be temporary containment. The correction should be back towards 2.1182. Overall, it looks like the bears are winning the battle. The next downside target after the correction should be around 2.0528, and possibly much lower.
We got the spike to 2.1213, then back in the DOWN.
AUD/USD: As per my forecast, we have reached that topping process, and this pair is due for a correction. The daily tenken at 1.0205 is on the radar, but it should go lower than that.
Still waiting for the topping process to complete itself.
Gbp/aud
I was looking at this pair before I got started on the big 11, and it is ready to head north. If 1.5490 is broken, then the pair could head to the high 1.5300's, but then get ready. The daily daily chart is very OS. I'm looking for the bottom of the daily cloud at 1.5695 to be initial containment, but then we should get a strong move back into it.
I was looking at this pair before I got started on the big 11, and it is ready to head north. If 1.5490 is broken, then the pair could head to the high 1.5300's, but then get ready. The daily daily chart is very OS. I'm looking for the bottom of the daily cloud at 1.5695 to be initial containment, but then we should get a strong move back into it.
Weekly Forecast--040311
EUR/USD: This pair keeps messing around near the top, and eventually, it is going to take it out as it should be headed towards 1.4412. That should be MTLT containment as we see what should be a very strong reversal.
USD/JPY: With the break of the daily cloud and the tenken following sharply, we now have cluster support at 82.78. The next thing to look for is the bottom of the weekly cloud to be hit at 86.89.
GBP/USD: There is cluster R at the daily TK combo at 1.6158. That could be broken and if it is, it will be sharp as we see a move towards 1.6256. If the UP continues, then expect the previous peak at 1.6399 to contain.
USD/CHF: The top of the 4-hour cloud at .9144 should be containment for the week. The pair next rise should bring it into some forbidden waters as the daily kijun at .9495 should contain.
EUR/CHF: Current level has got to contain, or one of 2 things happens this week. Either we will get some volatile price action, which will eventually drop the price back to current level, or the UP continues to the bottom of the weekly cloud at 1.3510. I do not favor the current level to contain.
AUD/USD: The topping process has begun for this pair, and it is now clearly evident it is going to reverse. There just is not much steam left for this pair. The reversal begins anywhere between current level and the low 1.0400s.
USD/CAD: We are still looking for this pairs containment. This weeks S1 should be it, which will be circa .9580. If that is broken, then we get a blowout towards the high .9400s
EUR/GBP: Now that this pair has broken clearly above the weekly cloud, it will contain any downside momentum at .8743. The rise should continue, as I mentioned before in a previous analysis towards the mid--.8900s, and possibly beyond.
EUR/JPY: This pair did form a base at the bottom of the weekly cloud, and last week we finally got that strong move north we had been talking about. The top of the weekly cloud at 121.95, but the UP needs a reprieve, and we should see a rather strong correction to start the week towards the 4-hour kijun at 117.30. This would make for a nice 2-way ticket, because at that point we should see the UP resume.
GBP/JPY: Last week was a huge breakout week for this pair. It finally finished inside the weekly cloud and broke above the daily top and the TL. Things have turned very bullish for this pair. The week should begin, like its cousin, the EUR/JPY with a rather significant correction. The 4-hour tenken at 134.13 will be hit, and it is very likely the kijun could also be hit at 133.05. Afterward, the UP resumes in earnest , as the next stop on the radar is the top of the weekly cloud at 139.81. This week will end anywhere above 134.32.
EUR/USD: This pair keeps messing around near the top, and eventually, it is going to take it out as it should be headed towards 1.4412. That should be MTLT containment as we see what should be a very strong reversal.
USD/JPY: With the break of the daily cloud and the tenken following sharply, we now have cluster support at 82.78. The next thing to look for is the bottom of the weekly cloud to be hit at 86.89.
GBP/USD: There is cluster R at the daily TK combo at 1.6158. That could be broken and if it is, it will be sharp as we see a move towards 1.6256. If the UP continues, then expect the previous peak at 1.6399 to contain.
USD/CHF: The top of the 4-hour cloud at .9144 should be containment for the week. The pair next rise should bring it into some forbidden waters as the daily kijun at .9495 should contain.
EUR/CHF: Current level has got to contain, or one of 2 things happens this week. Either we will get some volatile price action, which will eventually drop the price back to current level, or the UP continues to the bottom of the weekly cloud at 1.3510. I do not favor the current level to contain.
AUD/USD: The topping process has begun for this pair, and it is now clearly evident it is going to reverse. There just is not much steam left for this pair. The reversal begins anywhere between current level and the low 1.0400s.
USD/CAD: We are still looking for this pairs containment. This weeks S1 should be it, which will be circa .9580. If that is broken, then we get a blowout towards the high .9400s
EUR/GBP: Now that this pair has broken clearly above the weekly cloud, it will contain any downside momentum at .8743. The rise should continue, as I mentioned before in a previous analysis towards the mid--.8900s, and possibly beyond.
EUR/JPY: This pair did form a base at the bottom of the weekly cloud, and last week we finally got that strong move north we had been talking about. The top of the weekly cloud at 121.95, but the UP needs a reprieve, and we should see a rather strong correction to start the week towards the 4-hour kijun at 117.30. This would make for a nice 2-way ticket, because at that point we should see the UP resume.
GBP/JPY: Last week was a huge breakout week for this pair. It finally finished inside the weekly cloud and broke above the daily top and the TL. Things have turned very bullish for this pair. The week should begin, like its cousin, the EUR/JPY with a rather significant correction. The 4-hour tenken at 134.13 will be hit, and it is very likely the kijun could also be hit at 133.05. Afterward, the UP resumes in earnest , as the next stop on the radar is the top of the weekly cloud at 139.81. This week will end anywhere above 134.32.
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