Some of my forecasts
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My RR ratio falls in line with my methodology, which is strange, but effective. I don't have one.
Here's why. 85% of my trades are winners, which is 17 out of 20 (Last week was lower(Lousy AUD--rrgh)). Let's use that same probability and say I have a 1:1 ratio, then it is still a winner. IMO it is not the RR that counts, but what method keeps the equity curve rising.
Another way I look at it is in terms of a confidence ratio. What level of confidence do I have in that trade? I only seek out trades that have high confidence. Therefore, based on my previous thoughts on cable, you know I will be short cable this week, and it will probably be something like a 4:1 ratio, but that still does not matter. I've had trades with a 1:3, and they were good trades. Embarrassingly, I've had trades that backed up on me 150 pips and turn into 20-pip winners. In that case, it was ugly, but suffice to say, it's not the journey that counts but what you get paid when you get to the final destination.
BTW, this is a good reason I track 28 forex markets for my personal trading. If I don't see a high probability setup in one market, I move on to the next. Also, I'm not concerned if it is a day or a position trade. I just want my pips!!!!
Another reason I will forecast any market you want me too is that it helps me. I can take my methodology and apply to a market I don't trade or even track on a regular basis, and it further adds confidence to my methodology. It also helps the one that made the request, because for whatever the reason, they needed the forecast.
Here's why. 85% of my trades are winners, which is 17 out of 20 (Last week was lower(Lousy AUD--rrgh)). Let's use that same probability and say I have a 1:1 ratio, then it is still a winner. IMO it is not the RR that counts, but what method keeps the equity curve rising.
Another way I look at it is in terms of a confidence ratio. What level of confidence do I have in that trade? I only seek out trades that have high confidence. Therefore, based on my previous thoughts on cable, you know I will be short cable this week, and it will probably be something like a 4:1 ratio, but that still does not matter. I've had trades with a 1:3, and they were good trades. Embarrassingly, I've had trades that backed up on me 150 pips and turn into 20-pip winners. In that case, it was ugly, but suffice to say, it's not the journey that counts but what you get paid when you get to the final destination.
BTW, this is a good reason I track 28 forex markets for my personal trading. If I don't see a high probability setup in one market, I move on to the next. Also, I'm not concerned if it is a day or a position trade. I just want my pips!!!!
Another reason I will forecast any market you want me too is that it helps me. I can take my methodology and apply to a market I don't trade or even track on a regular basis, and it further adds confidence to my methodology. It also helps the one that made the request, because for whatever the reason, they needed the forecast.
thank you paul.. for clarification.. and one more query, what is your risk ratio .. before u entering into trade
Weekly Forecasts--032711
EUR/USD: It is my opinion this pair is in for a very short upper wick for the week. Any correction should be limited below the 4-hour tenken at 1.4137. Watch for 1.4028, as we will get a very strong move through that level, and then head to the daily kijun at 1.3886. The next stop is the weekly tenken at 1.3838.
USD/JPY: Im looking for this pair to move UP higher to start the week 81.88 could be containment, and there could be a spike to the bottom of the daily cloud at 82.53. Afterward, I look for a correction that will take the pair to the daily kijun at 79.98. That could be the springboard to get this pair moving up much higher. The thing to remember concerning this pair is that the decades S1 at 78.02. We had the volatile spike through it, and now we have begun progression towards much higher limits.
GBP/USD: Upside containment should be 1.6100, as we head to the weekly kijun at 1.5872. That will be a decision point.
USD/CHF: This pair has broken above the daily TL, and so the pair appears ready to head north. Any correction should be limited above .9134, as the pair has its eye on next key R, which is the weekly tenken at .9349.
EUR/CHF: Get ready for this pair, because it is getting ready for a strong move. Initial R to start the week will be a solid confluence between 1.297798. That area involves the top of the daily cloud and 2 TLs that are drawn off the 4-hour and daily charts. Support is going to be the 4-hour tenken at 1.2881. That will be a decision point. Either it contains, or there will be a very sharp move through it, and it is southward the rest of the week. The pair is also trapped within a weekly triangle with current parameters at 1.31701.2466.
AUD/USD: This pair has been tough to get a read on, and I will blame rather than my methodology or the TAs. IMO, it is the human that will falter and never my methodology nor the TAs.
We have gotten what appears to be another topping process. If 4-hour OB divergence has anything to say about this, then we are headed back to 1.0074. If monthly OB divergence has anything to say, laugh if you will, but we are headed to .9153. If my pattern of being wrong on this pair continues, then the top gets blown off, and we are headed to 1.0450. Im going to favor at least the pullback to 1.0074.
USD/CAD: I was making a lot of pips while this pair was moving inside of a very predictable channel. The predictability is no longer there, because we have essentially hit bottom, and that could be in the absence of seeing another strong thrust towards the .9400s. The deliberate price action has forged some doubts on whether this pair is ready to take off yet.
I still favor the upside break, but watch for .9840, as that will be a decision point. Once there, you will know the decision is made, as we will get a strong thrust through it, or a reversal. The next R will be the bottom of the daily cloud at .9918. We had a failure on the first attempt, and that is the nature of a 1st move such as that. That is another reason I favor the upside, as the cloud should give way for a move to 1.0011.
NZD/USD: Kiwi should be through with flexing its muscle for awhile. The upside objective was met, and it took all of last week to do so. It is ready for a move to the 4-hour kijun at .7449, and then the daily kijun at .7385. Watch for a reaction at that point.
EUR/GBP: There will be a further correction of the UP but unless we got a headfake out of the weekly cloud, we are headed to .8905 and most likely higher.
EUR/JPY: Here we go again. Its viable to have a correction to circa 112.72, and then head back UP . The pair has rested inside the weekly cloud, and we are still waiting for a strong break north.
GBP/JPY: If this pair gets above the daily cloud, currently at 133.01, things could get explosive. In the interim, look for at least a temporary trip south to the daily kijun at 129.32, and the tenken at 128.07.
EUR/USD: It is my opinion this pair is in for a very short upper wick for the week. Any correction should be limited below the 4-hour tenken at 1.4137. Watch for 1.4028, as we will get a very strong move through that level, and then head to the daily kijun at 1.3886. The next stop is the weekly tenken at 1.3838.
USD/JPY: Im looking for this pair to move UP higher to start the week 81.88 could be containment, and there could be a spike to the bottom of the daily cloud at 82.53. Afterward, I look for a correction that will take the pair to the daily kijun at 79.98. That could be the springboard to get this pair moving up much higher. The thing to remember concerning this pair is that the decades S1 at 78.02. We had the volatile spike through it, and now we have begun progression towards much higher limits.
GBP/USD: Upside containment should be 1.6100, as we head to the weekly kijun at 1.5872. That will be a decision point.
USD/CHF: This pair has broken above the daily TL, and so the pair appears ready to head north. Any correction should be limited above .9134, as the pair has its eye on next key R, which is the weekly tenken at .9349.
EUR/CHF: Get ready for this pair, because it is getting ready for a strong move. Initial R to start the week will be a solid confluence between 1.297798. That area involves the top of the daily cloud and 2 TLs that are drawn off the 4-hour and daily charts. Support is going to be the 4-hour tenken at 1.2881. That will be a decision point. Either it contains, or there will be a very sharp move through it, and it is southward the rest of the week. The pair is also trapped within a weekly triangle with current parameters at 1.31701.2466.
AUD/USD: This pair has been tough to get a read on, and I will blame rather than my methodology or the TAs. IMO, it is the human that will falter and never my methodology nor the TAs.
We have gotten what appears to be another topping process. If 4-hour OB divergence has anything to say about this, then we are headed back to 1.0074. If monthly OB divergence has anything to say, laugh if you will, but we are headed to .9153. If my pattern of being wrong on this pair continues, then the top gets blown off, and we are headed to 1.0450. Im going to favor at least the pullback to 1.0074.
USD/CAD: I was making a lot of pips while this pair was moving inside of a very predictable channel. The predictability is no longer there, because we have essentially hit bottom, and that could be in the absence of seeing another strong thrust towards the .9400s. The deliberate price action has forged some doubts on whether this pair is ready to take off yet.
I still favor the upside break, but watch for .9840, as that will be a decision point. Once there, you will know the decision is made, as we will get a strong thrust through it, or a reversal. The next R will be the bottom of the daily cloud at .9918. We had a failure on the first attempt, and that is the nature of a 1st move such as that. That is another reason I favor the upside, as the cloud should give way for a move to 1.0011.
NZD/USD: Kiwi should be through with flexing its muscle for awhile. The upside objective was met, and it took all of last week to do so. It is ready for a move to the 4-hour kijun at .7449, and then the daily kijun at .7385. Watch for a reaction at that point.
EUR/GBP: There will be a further correction of the UP but unless we got a headfake out of the weekly cloud, we are headed to .8905 and most likely higher.
EUR/JPY: Here we go again. Its viable to have a correction to circa 112.72, and then head back UP . The pair has rested inside the weekly cloud, and we are still waiting for a strong break north.
GBP/JPY: If this pair gets above the daily cloud, currently at 133.01, things could get explosive. In the interim, look for at least a temporary trip south to the daily kijun at 129.32, and the tenken at 128.07.
The Learning Curve
I wanted to make a comment concerning a bunch of PM's I get on a regular basis.
I will help and abet anyone's trading efforts in any way I can. This is a pleasure of mine, along with a living. I just love what I do, and I feel humbled by the good that many people receive by what I do. What I don't do is charge money, nor do I have some behind-the-scenes scheme of any sort. I'm content with trading.
This thread was originally designed for me to post my forecasts. I want to be very clear this thread is open to any relevant material, such as questions and comments about all material that I present in this thread. You know I use the ichimoku cloud, my proprietary S&R's, stochastics, and TL's as the core of my trading methodology. If we get into a conversation about that, and we even get off in a tangent about indicators or any other relevant material, that is fine. This thread will always revert to my forecasts, but I am not so cynical as to believe it has to revolve around such a tunnel vision for this thread.
In essence if this thread also helps someone in climbing the learning curve by asking questions and making comments about the why and wherefore of my analysis or if you want to challenge me on my analysis, or you just have comments and questions about whatever is going to advance your personal cause on the learning curve, then that is fine. All I questions will be answered honestly and succinctly as possible. All challenges will be met with the same straightforwardness that all queries are. The thing is, I don't know it all, in spite of the fact I am very good at what I do. I can always learn things, and I learn from simple discussion whether you are a beginner or and advanced trader.
I wanted to make a comment concerning a bunch of PM's I get on a regular basis.
I will help and abet anyone's trading efforts in any way I can. This is a pleasure of mine, along with a living. I just love what I do, and I feel humbled by the good that many people receive by what I do. What I don't do is charge money, nor do I have some behind-the-scenes scheme of any sort. I'm content with trading.
This thread was originally designed for me to post my forecasts. I want to be very clear this thread is open to any relevant material, such as questions and comments about all material that I present in this thread. You know I use the ichimoku cloud, my proprietary S&R's, stochastics, and TL's as the core of my trading methodology. If we get into a conversation about that, and we even get off in a tangent about indicators or any other relevant material, that is fine. This thread will always revert to my forecasts, but I am not so cynical as to believe it has to revolve around such a tunnel vision for this thread.
In essence if this thread also helps someone in climbing the learning curve by asking questions and making comments about the why and wherefore of my analysis or if you want to challenge me on my analysis, or you just have comments and questions about whatever is going to advance your personal cause on the learning curve, then that is fine. All I questions will be answered honestly and succinctly as possible. All challenges will be met with the same straightforwardness that all queries are. The thing is, I don't know it all, in spite of the fact I am very good at what I do. I can always learn things, and I learn from simple discussion whether you are a beginner or and advanced trader.
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