Some of my forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

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As per my WF, I said this pair would be headed to circa mid--1.4500's before an "appreciable" reversal. The peak today was 1.4520 before the noticeable reversal. Also, notice the sideways movement at my WR1 at 1.4474. Also, in my update, I said this would be hit before NY was over today.

Having said all that, and having the initial parameters fulfilled, I'm going to change my view slightly. Rather than looking for an appreciable reversal, I am now treating this area as a decision point. We should get a reversal, but momentum is strong enough where the top of the daily cloud could get blown out.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Tl--usd/jpy

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I already did a series on the TL's in the other thread I started. I think it is important to go over that before reading the miscellany that will be featured this week in the various posts I'll do on TL's This is because the original series is Basic 101. Without that basic knowledge, it may be hard to grasp what I am referring to in many of the upcoming posts.

There is a lot of talk and a lot of e-books being sold on trading the breakout. They irk me because they are being sold by marketing gurus and professional salespeople rather than traders. In using hindsight, you can make that kind of thing look real good. I'm about to cut through the mustard and prove my point looking into the future and not with hindsight.

I was discussing this while it was happening and never got to posting it while it was happening. It was with someone considering trading the breakout, and I told him, "Don't do it!" Just look at the 4th candle back. If you traded the breakout on it, you would not have been a happy camper. Ones that read the e-books are asking what they did wrong. The answer is only one thing, "You bought the e-book and bought into the hype!"

We are talking about sound TL trading principles. You never trade a TL break (breakout) until all 3 steps are completed: 1. A full candle closes above it; 2. The next candle continues higher; 3. A correction back to at least the point it broke the TL.

In the form of what is probably more of a MT analysis, what is not seen on this chart will be an initial confluence of R at circa 79.00, Once that is broken, we would get a move towards 80.43. The first thing that happens as a sign we could be on our way is that TL is broken with the proper steps.

In this post, I tried to eliminate all implications with regards to the ichimoku, et al, but the confluence of R at 79.00 involves a 4-hour TL at that level along with the bottom of the cloud.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Hi Adam. I see you are new in terms of posts. I recommend to head over to the other thread I made the original posts on TL's, apply it, then trade it on a demo just to see the performance.
Everything sounds good. You might even be impressed with some of the forecasts, but where it all becomes reality to you is by applying it and know for yourself, rather than my here say that it works.

Stay tuned, though. There's a lot more coming.

I like this post. This is very interesting and helpful. Thanks for sharing your ideas with us.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Nifty

I don't like responding to myself because I feel like i am talking to myself, but here goes anyway:

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The chart shows the downside objective was complete to the current dip at 5551, just 1 point above, on a sharp 4-hour candle. I did mention the possible nature of the move. According to the analysis, it was suppose to contain, but it may not now.
If the move continues, then look for the WS3 to be absolute containment for the week, with a possible spike to the bottom of the cloud at 5474.

Nifty NSE 5761 5706 5672 5606 5573 -5517

This market is still stuck in the consolidative mode, and will be all next week. As a matter a fact there is now a slight upward proclivity to correct recent losses. Within the scope of my S&R's for the week, there could be a huge range. Any move south should be contained by the WS2 at 5573, with even a possible spike 5550. Depended on the nature of the move south, the move north should end up around the WR2 at 5706, or even the WR3 at 5761.

The more MT outlook is containment at 5833. That should offer a very strong bounce which should produce a strong move south.

Note: The numbers on top are my weekly levels

 

[EagleOne]

Re: Nifty

I don't like responding to myself because I feel like i am talking to myself, but here goes anyway:

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The chart shows the downside objective was complete to the current dip at 5551, just 1 point above, on a sharp 4-hour candle. I did mention the possible nature of the move. According to the analysis, it was suppose to contain, but it may not now.
If the move continues, then look for the WS3 to be absolute containment for the week, with a possible spike to the bottom of the cloud at 5474.

You are not talking before the mirror, Paul, so need not worry. We are listening. At least, I am.

I saw your post on nifty week's range tonight. However, I calculated the moment Nifty fell through 5653 today - and told a couple of friends on the fone - that Nifty would be touching 5566 first, then, depending on the momentum, move down to 5556-5548. Now, as I see, if it crossed 5523 then we would be looking down the abyss of 5484 -5473 - with a rat tail wagging all the way to 5413ish.

But as it is expiry week, anything is possible. Wide ranging ups and downs, anything. At the lightening speed. I hope my fellow traders would enjoy rafting through the rapids!

Good night, Paul. Once again, it's good to see you around.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Nifty

My wife would say, "He's responding to himself. Typical!"

Actually, the real reason that I sometimes respond to one of my posts is to eliminate the writing. Also, there are new people looking on, and I want it all to be authenticate for their benefit.

You are not talking before the mirror, Paul, so need not worry. We are listening. At least, I am.

I saw your post on nifty week's range tonight. However, I calculated the moment Nifty fell through 5653 today - and told a couple of friends on the fone - that Nifty would be touching 5566 first, then, depending on the momentum, move down to 5556-5548. Now, as I see, if it crossed 5523 then we would be looking down the abyss of 5484 -5473 - with a rat tail wagging all the way to 5413ish.

But as it is expiry week, anything is possible. Wide ranging ups and downs, anything. At the lightening speed. I hope my fellow traders would enjoy rafting through the rapids!

Good night, Paul. Once again, it's good to see you around.

 

[4xpipcounter]

TL's--EUR/CHF

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We had a TL break at 1.1716, so the correction should take us to at least that point. That signaled the downtrend, so the blue TL, drawn form the daily should act as R, because if it was broken, then we would have a new UP. We can't have that until the DOWN from the cross of the 4-hour TL has completed itself, so upside containment should be 1.1780.

 

[timepass]

Re: Nifty

.... Now, as I see, if it crossed 5523 then we would be looking down the abyss of 5484 -5473 - with a rat tail wagging all the way to 5413ish.

Sharekhan has been saying 5410-20 as short term target for some days now, but a medium term target of 5900.

 

[4xpipcounter]

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I received the following e-mail from someone, so I decided to answer it here so others could benefit:
"
You have mentioned about the recent (yesterdays) dip of Nifty to 5551 in your previous weeks analysis.

My question to you is how did you come to the conclusion that the dip will be to 5551(Huge Range , Breaking two weekly levels down 5672 --5606 --5573). (Did you tell this because of the the top of 4Hr cloud at around 5550?)

The fact the market is still consolidating tells me odds are that it will stay within the WR2 and the WS2. The WR2 this week is 5706. Also, and even though there is massive R around the WR3 at 5761, the circa area of the WR2 is an SD channel extreme on the hourly. In a consolidative market, the hourly is usually good enough to hold back any strong moves along with a 2 getting hit. An extreme reading within a standard deviation, along with confluential R adds up to a strong reversal even in a consolidative market.
As far as the 5550 level was concerned, it represents an "a" level, that I would otherwise call WS2a. I don't like referring to them in an analysis because it just confuses the issue more than it does good. Yes, the cloud, at the time, was 5552, but any spike into the cloud is allowable. That simply means the wick can dip into the cloud, but the object is for it to finish above it.
The 4-hour cloud is now showing a slight finish inside the cloud which means either it was a headfake, or we head north immediately. It the move inside is legitimate, then we head to the bottom.
I also alluded to the nature of the move south in knowing we could have gotten a move like we got yesterday. Circa 5550 appeared to be containment, but that is no longer necessarily the case.

2. How are you coming to the view that Nifty will be in consolidating mode with east ward motion.

This market is scary right now, because it is all over the map. I'll use the metaphor from a game we play at parties. The first person tells someone something, then that someone whispers to the next person what he/she heard. By the time you get to the 20th person, it does not even resemble what was said initially.
Nifty is like that. Depended on which TF you look at, you get a different story. The monthly is showing a drop to circa 4600. The weekly is showing a possible move to 5763, which should contain. The daily is showing containment at 5393, which also represents an SD channel lower extreme. The 4-hour has no idea what it is doing
In other words, there are upper and lower extremes all over the place, and with price action getting beat up (ala yesterday)all over the place by confluences of S's and R's.
What could be expected, in order to break the funk, is for a strong breakaway that most likely will not be in the forecast.


But, till yesterday,the move was eastwards and the trend of NIfty in the higher timeframes pointed definitely upwards to 5761. Can u pls explain your mind using some charts. That will be very useful.

5761 is containment, but it does not mean it will get hit. You have to go with the more meaningful intraday S's or R's, which in this case was the WR2 matching up perfectly with the SD extreme.

Because of the Monetary policy announcement by our Reserve Bank (RBI), the trend got into a sharp downtrend.

That was also predictable. I forecasted that possible containment level in my blog. Simply put, the stochastics were heavily OB, and was going to form a divergence once the top of the daily cloud was hit. It had to break hard to the south from there. I like SBI these days from a forecaster's point of view. The move to that point was forecasted when the market was at circa 2125, and then the reversal.
I plan on doing an update on SBI within 15 hours of this post. If I forget, anyone can feel free to remind me.

 

[IrfanBasheer]

Mr 4xpipcounter,

You are A Man among the Boys. Are you a mathemtician or a genious or both ?

Looks like my patience have paid off on this forum after reading your "Heera" posts in "Koyle kee khan".

I plan to read your complete thread in next few days.

Here is My Salam to you !

-Irfan