Some of my forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

Another point about the previous post

Notice on the 4-hour how the pair ranged high above the cloud. It has been consistently above the cloud since July 13th. That means about 245 candles. Being above the cloud this long means if it makes it back to the cloud that the S is solid. Plan on the pair reversing if the top is hit. In other words, the longer price has been above the cloud the harder it is for the cloud to be penetrated.

 

[ashwani chadha]

Re: GBP/USD--ichimoku

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the most recent forecast i was talking about the drop this pair would have to 1.6199. I wanted to show the combination of the ichimoku cloud along with it forming a confluence with the stochastics.

First of all, the settings should be 5,5,5 and the parameters set at 85-15. The daily chart is showing the candle being at the top of the cloud with stochastics crossing over in ob territory. It is also showing a bearish indication because the tenken and kijun are at the bottom of the cloud.
A good portion of the time you can expect a move to at least the tenken, if not the kijun when the stochastics are ob. Using the top of the cloud as a confluence that is your strong indication of the move. The tenken is 1.6220, and by the time price action gets there, the tenken will be even with the bottom of the cloud which will also make a good confluence of support.

The 4-hour is showing a combination of support at the 1.6200 area. Because the move was not quite as powerful as anticipated, it is going to take a break through the cloud, and to the bottom, which could make for a bumpy ride if the pair makes it that far.

If price hits that cluster area of 1.6200, you could expect a strong reversal after arriving. This is because the support area on the daily is also solid, and we could expect only a wick spike on the other side of that. This is why it is important to know what is going on with more than just one tf.

dear paul,thanks for suggesting 5,5,5 and 85-15 setting in stochastics

 

[ashwani chadha]

thank-you irfan. I do love math, but really, i only consider myself a student of the charts. Just "one of the boys".
I had my 7th anniversary this month in trading. Even though this is now my only job i have, i still spend the greater part of my day studying the charts, and studying indicators and their functionality. I always want to keep an edge. I'm good at what i do, but i never want to take it for granted.

Just to prove i am not a genious (lol), i don't know what "heera", (diomond)"koyle kee khan"(coal mine) means. I'm form the usa, so i am assuming it has something to do with the indian culture.

dear paul thanks for ur balanced and cool mind answer

 

[ashwani chadha]

THanks SJD. Then there is plenty of room for us all to be diamonds. That way we'll cover up the coal and you'll never know it is there.

dear paul , THANKS FOR THE PERFECT ANSWER,WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM A GENIUN PERSON LIKE U

 

[ashwani chadha]

Re: Tl--usd/jpy

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i already did a series on the tl's in the other thread i started. I think it is important to go over that before reading the miscellany that will be featured this week in the various posts i'll do on tl's this is because the original series is basic 101. Without that basic knowledge, it may be hard to grasp what i am referring to in many of the upcoming posts.

There is a lot of talk and a lot of e-books being sold on trading the breakout. They irk me because they are being sold by marketing gurus and professional salespeople rather than traders. In using hindsight, you can make that kind of thing look real good. I'm about to cut through the mustard and prove my point looking into the future and not with hindsight.

I was discussing this while it was happening and never got to posting it while it was happening. It was with someone considering trading the breakout, and i told him, "don't do it!" just look at the 4th candle back. If you traded the breakout on it, you would not have been a happy camper. Ones that read the e-books are asking what they did wrong. The answer is only one thing, "you bought the e-book and bought into the hype!"

(((((((we are talking about sound tl trading principles. You never trade a tl break (breakout) until all 3 steps are completed: 1. A full candle closes above it; 2. The next candle continues higher; 3. A correction back to at least the point it broke the tl.))))))))

in the form of what is probably more of a mt analysis, what is not seen on this chart will be an initial confluence of r at circa 79.00, once that is broken, we would get a move towards 80.43. The first thing that happens as a sign we could be on our way is that tl is broken with the proper steps.

In this post, i tried to eliminate all implications with regards to the ichimoku, et al, but the confluence of r at 79.00 involves a 4-hour tl at that level along with the bottom of the cloud.

thanks for giving above knowledge

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: GBP/USD--ichimoku

Ashwani, thanks for you kind words.
I should clarify that just because I use 5,5,5, it does not make it right for everyone. Those levels are sturdy and the most accurate indications in lieu of price action.
The reason I like the 15-85 is that 20-80 give many false signals considering it is a measure of what the trader would be looking for in an OB/OS condition.
Also, oscillators all lag the more extreme the indication the less they lag. You can notice that when the indicator reads at anywhere from 30-37, especially, and notice when price moves or reverses, then a candle or 2 later you will finally get the cross.
Another thing about stochastics is that a truer indication is when there is a smoother crossover in OB/OS conditions.
In spite of its properties, I know of no time when the indicator can be used as a standalone. In other words, just because it crosses in the preferred area, it does not mean you will get the price action you are looking for. This is why it needs to be used as a confluence with other indicators, and not other oscillators.

dear paul,thanks for suggesting 5,5,5 and 85-15 setting in stochastics

 

[4xpipcounter]

EUR/USD-- S&R's

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There are a couple of things I wanted to point out.
The hourly chart shows how nicely the WS1 held up. As per the updated forecast, I said that the dip was going to be 1.4238, the WS1, and it was 1.4226.
In the Weekly Forecast, I mentioned the dip would be for the week 1.4226. I wanted to point that out just to show how past S&R's are relevant and worth paying attention to in the future. One of the best ways to support that point is to keep in mind that my S&R's are strictly mathematical. Plot them on your chart, and then you can view some of the relevancy in the past.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Nifty

I wanted to bring this further up to date because I was talking via e-mail with someone concerning longer term implications.

Don't quote me for sure on this, but this week's strong move south may have started a leviathan. But then, as traders that is what we want. The more trendy the markets are, the more trading opportunities it presents. I mentioned in the other post that the current level needs to contain, as it is the target since the recent peak. This is the decision point for this market. It appears that most likely we are headed to the bottom of the daily cloud at 5387. If that happens, then the weekly cloud could be acting as R for a long time, which is currently 5503.

To bring this even further up to date, I have been saying since this fall began from the 6000's that we are headed to the 4600's. This. of course, would take several months to develop because the stronger implications are on the monthly. Next week is going to tell us a lot where we are in the longer term scenario.
Also, longer term target has been raised slightly from the 4600's to 4713, but there are also strong possibilities of the longer term move heading to 4180.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Weekly Review--072411

Swissy has been beating me up lately. I missed the USD/CHF this week for the 2nd time in 4 weeks and the EUR/CHF for the 2nd time in 3 weeks.

EUR/USD: This pair could be in for a further drop to start the week. The 4-hour kijun is 1.4287, which should be initial support, and then the tenken is 1.4226. Add to that my WS1 is 1.4238, and that should be sufficient support. If I am wrong, then we could get a drop to the WS2 at 1.4122, and then things will look more sideways for the week. The favorable scenario is for 1.4226 to be containment for the week. The WR1 at 1.4474 appears to be an ideal target.
Another thing to look for in this pair is if we get to circa 1.4550, then look for a more appreciable reversal, if not some strong consolidation. In essence, once there, the UP will be over for awhile.

This was pretty much spot on the circa 1.4550 area was hit as the peak was 1.4538 .The reversal took the pair to my WS1 at exactly 1.4238, before a strong move back north to end the week.

USD/JPY: This pair is headed lower, a correction of the drop is still needed. The 1st sign that the correction has begun is a firm break of the 4-hour TL at 78.63. This weeks containment to the trip south should be the WS1 at 78.20. Just in case it is needed, the WS2 is 77.89. Once the 4-hour TL is broken, then there will be a lot of mounting R this pair will run into. Expect the WR2 at 79.12 to be hit, and the WR3 at 79.63 could very well be in range.
MT, I would look for this correction process to end at 80.4480.75.

We got the break of 78.63, but it was not firm, as the strong spike to the peak at 78.68 reversed quickly to the dip at 76.71

GBP/USD: This pair could be extremely volatile this week. MT indications show that a strong reversal is due. OTOH, it is hard to see a much further fall beyond the WS1 at 1.6112. The fall could also be violent from the WR1 at 1.6390. The top of the daily cloud is also 1.6400.
It is not too often that I can only forsee a 2-level move within the context of my weeklies, but that is the case this week. Yet, it is also possible to see a strong breakout after the move south has been completed.

That 2-level move was realized only within the range but not actual levels as only the WR1 was hit. The dip and the peak were both realized on Friday ay 1.6258 and 1.6469.

USD/CHF: Current area figures to be containment. At the very least, we are in the middle of a MT correction. Strong Rs should be watched at the top of the 4-hour cloud at .8298 and the WR2 at .8295 and the daily kijun at .8313. Afterward, we will probably see a move to the daily TL at .8377 and the WR3 at .8378.

This is the kind of forecasting that leaves me saying, What was I talking about!? The peak for the week was the close from last week at .8195. After the spike south to start the week, then the peak was .8153 and the dip was .7848.

EUR/CHF: The move north should continue this week. Similar to the USD/CHF, the circa current level should be containment. The WR1 is 1.1891 and the MS2 is 1.1902. Next stop should be the WR2 at 1.2028, with a spike to the weekly tenken at 1.2066. The bottom of the daily cloud should contain at 1.2222.

Blame it on the Swiss (LOL, dont anyone take that personal.) The peak for the week was the close from last week at 1.1768. After the spike south to start the week, then the peak was 1.1713 and the dip was 1.1296, and that was accomplished 2 minutes before the week ended.

AUD/USD: Current level should result in another move south for this pair. In case something happens, then the WR1 at 1.0936 will be containment. My WS2 at 1.0689 is very strong S, and it is containment.
I get the feeling this pair is in a wide open consolidation waiting for a longer term new high.

The last past of the forecast happened this week instead of waiting. The peak was 1.1078, and the dip to start the week was 1.0794 .

USD/CAD: This pair is headed higher this week. The WS1 is .9420, which is containment to the south. The WR2 is .9595 and the daily tenken is .9599, which make for a nice confluence of containment for the week.

We had a slight move under the Ws1 as the dip was .9405, and then the reversal took the pair to .9484.

NZD/USD: As far as the MT is concerned, watch for this pair. It is getting ready for a huge reversal. The monthly is ready to go, but the daily and weekly charts are still in huge momentous UP channels. Its a matter of time when the monthly will steal the show.
For this week the WR1 at .8713 has to be containment for any thoughts north. There is plenty of room for the WS2 to be hit at .8494. A comfortable break under .8247 will signal the reversal has begun.

As it turned out, the WR2 at .8783 was needed to contain the move north as the peak was .8792.

EUR/GBP: There wont be a lot of room for this pair to move this week. It will take a strong spike and reversal to get to the WS1 at .8765. There is strong cluster R at .8892, which includes my WR2 at .8889.

The week started to the peak at .8882, so it missed the WR2 by 7 pips, and then reversed to the dip at .8732. The strong spike also prevailed as it was a really large hourly candle that broke through the WS1.

EUR/JPY: This pair will probably head lower in the future, but for now a correction of the MT DOWN is due. The WS1 at 111.95 is containment. The WR1 is 113.56. Very strong R is in the 114.34114.91, which will be containment. After strong break under the MS3 earlier in the month, the MS2 is worth watching for at 114.34. The WR2 is 114.38.

The future ended up being this week as the dip was 110.36.

GBP/JPY: After going east last week, this pair is ready to break out through the roof. Keep in mind, this is only a correction, but the weekly tenken is a viable target this week at 129.94. The WR3 is 129.77. Any move south should be contained by the WS1 at 127.49.

Same as its cousin, the EUR/JPY, as it took full advantage of yen strength and headed to the dip at 125.94.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Weekly Forecast--073111

EUR/USD: One thing looks certain, and that is the WR2 at 1.4564 will be containment to the north this week. Watch for reaction if we get to the WS2 at 1.4225.
As an additional note, this pair over the MT should be headed to 1.4710, but should be going sideways at least this week.

USD/JPY: This pair should be headed to the WS1 at 76.22 to start the week. Im still waiting for the correction back to 80.41, so the WS1 could be the containment level that sends this pair on its journey. The bottom of the daily cloud at 80.73 should be containment before we reverse and head lower. As long as the WS1 holds up, then we can expect the WR2 to be hit this week at 77.84, and maybe a little beyond.

GBP/USD: A convincing break of 1.6520 will signal a move to the top of the monthly cloud at 1.7333, where there will be strong R. and could be containment for a long time. As far as this week is concerned, the initial hit at 1.6520 should contain the upside, if it makes it there this week. The WR2 is 1.6538, so it is feasible. Downside containment needs to be the top of the daily cloud at 1.6328, and allowing for a spike to the WS2 at 1.6306. Keep this in mind for this pair for this week: When either 2 is hit, that is containment.

USD/CHF: This pair is scaring me. Im looking for containment to the downside this week at the WS1 at .7770. Once the corrective process on this leg is finished, there should be a move to the bottom of the monthly SD channel at .7530, and we could see this pair go lower yet.

EUR/CHF: The WR2 at 1.1534 appears to be a very strong R. Like the USD/CHF, this fall is still in process, so it appears the circa area of this weeks WR2 would make for an excellent entry for a MT short. The next MT decision point should be around 1.0950.

AUD/USD: I was stating last week this pair would have a strong breakout to the upside, and new highs would be realized, and it did happen last week. We can expect newer all-time highs to be made as there is still strong momentum on the weekly chart in the middle of a strong upward channel. This week expect downside containment to be seen at the WS2 at 1.0835, which coincides nicely with the daily tenken.
The MT containment is the daily kijun at 1.0733.

USD/CAD: The 1st level for the week to look for on the upside is .9615. If we get a convincing break of that mark, then this pair could be consolidating. The bottom of the daily cloud at .9670 will be strong R. Regardless of what happens, the top of the daily contain will contain at .9768. We could see a down move to start the week to the 4-hour kijun at .9496.
We could see a move to my YS2 at .9142 before this year is out.

NZD/USD: Similar to the CHF/JPY, I cant tell you the exact day or week it is going to happen, but this pair is in for a huge reversal. Watch for reaction at my WR1 and WR2 at .8838 and .8889, respectively.

EUR/GBP: Watch for the 1s to be decision points this week, the WR1 at .8803 and the WS1 at .8721. If the DOWN is on, and price hits the WR1, then look for a sharp reversal. If price starts getting comfortable under the WS1, then look for us to go much lower. On the upside, if we only have a small correction from the WR1, then look for the move north to continue. What seems favorable is the move south. As long as this is the case, then I would look for the top of the weekly cloud to contain at .8605.

EUR/JPY: A correction is due of the recent break of the daily TL to at least 112.52, and even possibly the daily kijun at 113.65. Considering the move is against the MT downtrend, this move could take more than just this week to complete, because the WR2 is 112.22. Look for the WS1 to contain any move on the downside at 109.62

GBP/JPY: Just from sheer momentum of the closing 4-hour candle from last week could lead this pair to go further south. Containment should be in the 125.85 to the WS1 level at 125.34. Once that has been completed, then a correction should be playing out.
Of longer term consequence, a look at the monthly chart shows this pair has gone sideways for 2 years. That exceeds a normal cycle. The sideways motion has been in response as a form of a correction to the very strong move that dropped the pair from 251.09. A further LT drop is forthcoming to circa 106.00 after it wins the battle with the all-time low at 118.81.

As an additional note to the above analysis, I was saying several months ago that the USD/JPY is headed to 70.00 and even the medium to low 60.00s. Later I changed that. In lieu of what I see happening with many of the yen crosses and the interim predictability, I was wrong for changing my view. It will also be the next huge down move for the USD/JPY that should result in the favorable LY projection for the CHF/JPY to ensue.