Some of my forecasts

[EagleOne]

Hi Paul

SBI seems stalled in a range of 10 points. I have my opinion why it is so. However, I'd like to have the second opinion - yours. Would you be kind enough to give one, please?

And, also, let me tell you something funny as an advanced return for your efforts.

Last night I was watching an old episode of Star Trek Voyager over a glass of beer. The scene went like this (I have modified the last line to make it punchy):

The chief Engineer, Beleana, walks in the Sick Bay with a sample of alien matter in a bottle:

B: Computer, initiate the Emergency Medical Hologram!
(EMH materializes out of thin air)
EMH: State the nature of your medical emergency.
B: Actually, Doc, I want a second opinion on this (shows the sample).
EMH: Who gave you the first?
B: I gave it to myself.
EMH: You did... Well, the universe must be about to collapse into a black hole, then!

:lol:

Have a nice Sunday.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Wisdom that can only come from an Eagle.

10 points!?!? I'll post the chart next.

Hi Paul

SBI seems stalled in a range of 10 points. I have my opinion why it is so. However, I'd like to have the second opinion - yours. Would you be kind enough to give one, please?

And, also, let me tell you something funny as an advanced return for your efforts.

Last night I was watching an old episode of Star Trek Voyager over a glass of beer. The scene went like this (I have modified the last line to make it punchy):

The chief Engineer, Beleana, walks in the Sick Bay with a sample of alien matter in a bottle:

B: Computer, initiate the Emergency Medical Hologram!
(EMH materializes out of thin air)
EMH: State the nature of your medical emergency.
B: Actually, Doc, I want a second opinion on this (shows the sample).
EMH: Who gave you the first?
B: I gave it to myself.
EMH: You did... Well, the universe must be about to collapse into a black hole, then!

:lol:

Have a nice Sunday.

 

[4xpipcounter]

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Eagle, maybe there is something I am missing here. Your comment was about a range of 10 points. The last 4 days of last week produced a move due south to the tune of 195 points. Friday's range was 42 points. The market breaking loose like that was also predictable.

And,sooooo, I do not know what you mean by a range of 10 points.

As of this writing you are already into Monday, so I also hope you had a good Sunday. Ours is wonderful!

 

[EagleOne]

..........double post...............

 

[EagleOne]

Sorry, Paul, for not specifying the day(s) when it became range bound. Well, it fell like a brick till 2350-2341, rose to 2375ish this goneby Thursday-Friday. Yes, it does give long spikes on both sides now and then, but most of the times during the day it had been playing like a stuck record between 2360s - 2348ish. 50% retracement it has duly done. Moving toward 2321-15 is the key that will confirm its fall upto 2272. But it seems in no mood of doing so. Live PA is very cloudy to say the least. Both demand and supply sides are confused, it seems, and reluctant to go into panic mode. I personally believe that it is waiting for some tiny cue from overall market movement at this very point to decide its fate, instead of at 2272.

Over to you, Paul. Your thoughts please.

 

[4xpipcounter]

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Eagle, let me answer your question in a general sense.
All markets go through cycles. All markets are trending or correcting a trend depended on which TF you are looking at.
There are 2 ways (at least) to look at the attached daily chart of the SBI. One way is just as we see it. The market was OB, but still had a need to rise higher to the top of the cloud. It was that exact point (I think before I came back.) that I forecasted the reversal. It was from that point it moved due south. In essence the move north was tired and OB, so it went sideways in deciding which way to take next.

The other way to view it is through what the other TF's were saying. The 4-hour made its move along timer ago and was OB for a long time, yet, the weekly was pushing north still (It still want to push higher.). The monthly is still suggesting the market to head much lower, and the day is showing what we see. In essence, and to make a long story short, all the TF's had a mind of their own. When they get mixed up like that is when you have lots of sideways action. Once they agree is when you get the strong moves.

Watch for reaction at 2313. That is the bottom of the 4-hour cloud, its SD extreme, and very OS. If it gives way, it will be because of the pressure the daily is putting on it. Eventually, both of those TF's will agree and no lower than 2236, and then you will see a strong correction. If we get a correction from 2313, it will not be as strong, because the 4-hour will be acting by itself without any help from the daily. If 2313 contains, then after the correction, it will be a strong move to 2236.

These are reasons why I use terms like "decision point", "containment", etc in my analysis. In this case, 2313 is a decision point, and 2236 is containment. Also, keep the context in mind. It is within this leg only. The methodology and all the different TF's all work as a road map to what should eventually be a move, in the longer term to circa 1728.

Sorry, Paul, for not specifying the day(s) when it became range bound. Well, it fell like a brick till 2350-2341, rose to 2375ish this goneby Thursday-Friday. Yes, it does give long spikes on both sides now and then, but most of the times during the day it had been playing like a stuck record between 2360s - 2348ish. 50% retracement it has duly done. Moving toward 2321-15 is the key that will confirm its fall upto 2272. But it seems in no mood of doing so. Live PA is very cloudy to say the least. Both demand and supply sides are confused, it seems, and reluctant to go into panic mode. I personally believe that it is waiting for some tiny cue from overall market movement at this very point to decide its fate, instead of at 2272.

Over to you, Paul. Your thoughts please.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Eur/usd

As per my Weekly Forecast, I said to watch for a reaction at the WS2 at 1.4235. We got the very strong move on the hourly at the beginning of London today, and so we should now be on our way to the WS3 at 1.4083.
Momentum now favors the trifecta for a move to MT cluster support at 1.3833.

As a side note, and I do not spend a lot of time talking about my trades, but I mentioned last week about not holding any longs on this pair once price got to the mid-1.4500's. I also said it would be worth risking a short once price got to that area. I rode the short from the beginning of NY today to the WS2. That was a reaction point, and personally, I don't stick around at reaction points, Now that is has been made, I am considering a short again, especially with obviations form the trifecta.
I'll post on that later to give a little more understanding.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Gbp/usd

This pair had a sharp reaction from the top, which is about to plunder it to the WS3 at 1.6209. The move will most likely continue to the bottom of the daily cloud / TL support region at 1.6147. If that area is broken, I'll be surprised, but things appear they will be in a wide spread channel region from there for awhile.

Note: I don't want to much one-way activity while I'm gone on vacation--lol.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Trifecta I

Trifecta is a trading word that was made up by me. It is also seldom I refer to it, because it happens when their is strong one-way obviaitons on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Coming up will be the daily, weekly, and monthly charts for the EUR/USD.

AMAF, I just decided to post the 4-hour chart. I might have to come up with a new term, "quadfecta".
Whatever you do, don't think about going long the EUR/USD right now.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Trifecta II--4-hour

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I am expecting a correction on this, which is why I am still waiting before I take another short on this pair. It is clear to me the bottom of the cloud at 1.4273 will be R because of the obviations on the higher TF's coming up.