Some of my forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

Thanks Eagle. with you I could never soar. You give me wings then bring me back down just to keep me in balance. You kind of resemble the ichimoku cloud. Plus, I can't write good all the time. Someone might think I know what I'm talking about--lol.
So they say, that's what friends are for.

Wow, beautifully said! Tell you what, Paul, most of the times you write so logically, with so much care, that I feel proud to know you. However, sometimes -say, occasionally - you write like me ( that is - that, too, most of the times! )

So, Keep your kind of 'most of the times' multiply, bud.
Take care. Good night!

 

[4xpipcounter]

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Anurag, thanks for posting, because it enables me to prove my point to TT, because I am disagreeing with you 100%. But, again, all I'm going to do is show the point from a trader's perspective, and prove the stereotype wrong. BTW, I'm using the daily chart only because it was the one already up. I can do this for any TF.

The aqua line on both charts is on the candle from June 30th. This way we compare the same length of time. I see no similarity in the charts, nor do I see an absolute dissimilarity. You cannot place a trading decision on the USD/INR based on what Nifty is doing, nor can you place a trading decision on Nifty based on what the USD/INR is doing.

Look at the candles in the yellow oval at the very end. Those candles went in opposite directions. Anurag, you said look for divergence in the INR and Nifty went south in those final candles in the oval, and the USD/INR went north. That being the case, the INR went down. That is not divergent. It is the same direction.

Once again I ask, "How do you make a winning trading decision based amalgamating the 2 charts?". Also, if you notice in my Weekly Forecasts, which are, for the most part, extremely accurate, they are based only on what is observed on the individual charts.

This is why I say so much, look at the charts as individual entities and avoid all the stereotypes associated with the markets.

hi TT

usd/inr goes inverse to nifty.. and euro/inr goes with nifty...
look fr divergences there..

regards

 

[4xpipcounter]

Eur/nzd

As per request:

This pair has also been a freight train of late. When something is this out of control, I feel the methodology can see the reversal point, but OTOH, it almost seems predictive rather than forecasting or foreseeing the event. That pair appears to already be making a recovery, and it is still very OS and at extreme levels. It seems that weekly tenken is well in range at 1.7161. If the UP is to continue look for any correction from current level to be contained at 1.6387

 

[anuragmunjal]

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Anurag, thanks for posting, because it enables me to prove my point to TT, because I am disagreeing with you 100%. But, again, all I'm going to do is show the point from a trader's perspective, and prove the stereotype wrong. BTW, I'm using the daily chart only because it was the one already up. I can do this for any TF.

The aqua line on both charts is on the candle from June 30th. This way we compare the same length of time. I see no similarity in the charts, nor do I see an absolute dissimilarity. You cannot place a trading decision on the USD/INR based on what Nifty is doing, nor can you place a trading decision on Nifty based on what the USD/INR is doing.

Look at the candles in the yellow oval at the very end. Those candles went in opposite directions. Anurag, you said look for divergence in the INR and Nifty went south in those final candles in the oval, and the USD/INR went north. That being the case, the INR went down. That is not divergent. It is the same direction.

Once again I ask, "How do you make a winning trading decision based amalgamating the 2 charts?". Also, if you notice in my Weekly Forecasts, which are, for the most part, extremely accurate, they are based only on what is observed on the individual charts.

This is why I say so much, look at the charts as individual entities and avoid all the stereotypes associated with the markets.[/QUOTE

]


hi Paul

I agree with your view that every mkt shd be traded indipendently.
I also stick to my view that usd/inr has a very pronounced inverse relationship with nifty, though euro/inr relationship may not be so pronounced.
having said that, I have mentioned 'look fr divergences'. this statement in itself says that there are exceptions to this norm and such 'exceptions' can provide good trading oppertunities.
though I have never tried it, anyone can take a chart of usd/inr and nifty and check. in 80-90% of cases where nifty has opened gap down, usd/inr wd have opened gap up and vice versa..

regards

 

[4xpipcounter]

Anurag, this is not an exception to the rule. I blindly used the daily charts, because the daily had to be up at the time for Nifty. I can do that for every timeframe, but I did not want to take up that kind of space in my thread.

With regards to gaps, both Nifty and USD/INR will gap on the same day, and sometimes they don't. There is no point proven.

Okay, this is my challenge. This divergency that you are talking about seems to hold some water for you. I have proven and can prove, it does not exist. In other words there is no set chart guideline to go by. The next time you see one of your divergences happening, would you post them here on my thread?
The reason for that challenge is simple. I post my Weekly Forecasts and other miscellany throughout the week which proves the authenticity of my system. I am asking you to do the same. I'd like for you to post a series of forecasts based on what you see on the USD/INR, and then tell me which way Nifty is going or vice versa, and show us exactly what you are looking at. If after 1-2 forecasts and you are right, we'll call it luck. If after 5-10 forecasts you are right, we'll say you have enlightened us, and I will be the first in line to acknowledge that.

You may not be aware of this, but there is a mathematical relationship between all forex pairs. If there is a co-relationship with Nifty and USD/INR, then there has to be with the EUR/INR. The commonality between the 2 pairs is the INR, which has a demographical relationship with Nifty. If the theory is true, then you should at least be able to match any pair that includes the INR and find an interrelationship between the 2.

I'm not trying to show anyone up, but the 80-90% you mentioned in your last statement is not even close and that includes any timeframe.
What is a fact is in forex if a particular currency spikes hard, then all the corresponding pairs spiked in its same direction. It has to be that way with no exception (Yes 100% of the time.) because of the mathematical relationships. I'll prove those relationships if you want me to. Nevertheless, even in light of those facts, they still do not provide trading opportunities in and of themselves.


hi Paul

I agree with your view that every mkt shd be traded indipendently.
I also stick to my view that usd/inr has a very pronounced inverse relationship with nifty, though euro/inr relationship may not be so pronounced.
having said that, I have mentioned 'look fr divergences'. this statement in itself says that there are exceptions to this norm and such 'exceptions' can provide good trading oppertunities.
though I have never tried it, anyone can take a chart of usd/inr and nifty and check. in 80-90% of cases where nifty has opened gap down, usd/inr wd have opened gap up and vice versa..

regards[/QUOTE]

 

[EagleOne]

Thank God, you compared me to Ichimoku clouds - not 'fluffy' clouds, as my chum, SG, once put it, whose head, despite all my best pulling efforts, rarely comes out of them! :rofl:

On serious note, your inference regarding SBI turned out to be correct. Actually, I had written a couple of Call options during its fall towards 2380ish. And when it got stuck 30 points down it started wasting my time, although I was gaining due to its rangebound bobbings. Yesterday I squared them off where I wanted and moved on.

I think you mentioned somewhere in one your recent posts that SBI was easy to predict. I always found it so. Thank Heavens, SBI is not a woman. Her predictability would have bored me to death!

You take care. And keep coming up with delightful posts.

Thanks Eagle. with you I could never soar. You give me wings then bring me back down just to keep me in balance. You kind of resemble the ichimoku cloud. Plus, I can't write good all the time. Someone might think I know what I'm talking about--lol.
So they say, that's what friends are for.

 

[4xpipcounter]

I don't know your age, but if you were a teenager in the 60's, then SG might be on to something--lol.

SBI was easy to predict where it was headed within that context. Markets can be chameleon by nature. SBI could now be at a decision point, so it went from male to female.

People are always telling me what to do. What if I don't want to take care? Like they say in Sacramento, Calif (Where I used to live.), "I'm just havin' fun whitcha, Eagle.

Now, if you'll excuse, I got to get back to work--lol.

Thank God, you compared me to Ichimoku clouds - not 'fluffy' clouds, as my chum, SG, once put it, whose head, despite all my best pulling efforts, rarely comes out of them! :rofl:

On serious note, your inference regarding SBI turned out to be correct. Actually, I had written a couple of Call options during its fall towards 2380ish. And when it got stuck 30 points down it started wasting my time, although I was gaining due to its rangebound bobbings. Yesterday I squared them off where I wanted and moved on.

I think you mentioned somewhere in one your recent posts that SBI was easy to predict. I always found it so. Thank Heavens, SBI is not a woman. Her predictability would have bored me to death!

You take care. And keep coming up with delightful posts.

 

[anuragmunjal]

Anurag, this is not an exception to the rule. I blindly used the daily charts, because the daily had to be up at the time for Nifty. I can do that for every timeframe, but I did not want to take up that kind of space in my thread.

With regards to gaps, both Nifty and USD/INR will gap on the same day, and sometimes they don't. There is no point proven.

Okay, this is my challenge. This divergency that you are talking about seems to hold some water for you. I have proven and can prove, it does not exist. In other words there is no set chart guideline to go by. The next time you see one of your divergences happening, would you post them here on my thread?
The reason for that challenge is simple. I post my Weekly Forecasts and other miscellany throughout the week which proves the authenticity of my system. I am asking you to do the same. I'd like for you to post a series of forecasts based on what you see on the USD/INR, and then tell me which way Nifty is going or vice versa, and show us exactly what you are looking at. If after 1-2 forecasts and you are right, we'll call it luck. If after 5-10 forecasts you are right, we'll say you have enlightened us, and I will be the first in line to acknowledge that.

You may not be aware of this, but there is a mathematical relationship between all forex pairs. If there is a co-relationship with Nifty and USD/INR, then there has to be with the EUR/INR. The commonality between the 2 pairs is the INR, which has a demographical relationship with Nifty. If the theory is true, then you should at least be able to match any pair that includes the INR and find an interrelationship between the 2.

I'm not trying to show anyone up, but the 80-90% you mentioned in your last statement is not even close and that includes any timeframe.
What is a fact is in forex if a particular currency spikes hard, then all the corresponding pairs spiked in its same direction. It has to be that way with no exception (Yes 100% of the time.) because of the mathematical relationships. I'll prove those relationships if you want me to. Nevertheless, even in light of those facts, they still do not provide trading opportunities in and of themselves.

my dear friend

my simple contention was & is that nifty generally moves in the opposite direction to the usd/inr pair..to the extent that I have at one point in time even scalped both the mkts.. taking the other as cue. I had to stop this becos 10- 20 % of times there was a divergence to this norm.
now anyone who wants to check this out can check the 30min/1 hour/15min chart of both the instruments fr the past few days or months . apart frm a brief period sometime last month when both nifty and usd/inr were going down, which incidentally showed exceptional weekness in usd/inr and could become the trading oppertunity that I was speaking of earlier, they have moved opposite to each other, though the quantum of the move may vary frm time to time.
anyways I do not have any more motivation to carry this on furthar, I have already taken a lot of space on ur thread.

regards

another point that I missed is that I do not 'forecast' ......

 

[4xpipcounter]

Anuragmunjal, I wanted to point another constructive comment your way, because it is reminiscent of how I learned the very simple 1-2-3 formation.
I was actually taught the system by someone in another forum. Judging his dialogues, he impressed me as a good trader, but, as always, I had to test his methods for myself. If a method is worth any value to me (That is my opinion.), it should pass the test for any market, and any timeframe. Considering I track 28 pairs for my trading pleasure, in testing any indicator or trading plan, each pair I trade is assigned a number. I roll the dice and the number that applies is the pair I do the test on. (Strange? Probably. There is nothing about my methodology that is normal.) That was how I proved to me it worked. The test was put on the NZD/CAD, which I hardly trade, and it was the 5-min chart. When it passed that test, I knew we were on to something.
In your case, it was Nifty I went to, the daily was already up, and so the comparison was made with the USD/INR daily.

Still, I'm open-minded, so I would like you to post some live divergent forecasts.

 

[4xpipcounter]

The previous post of mine must have been made the same time as yours.
Don't worry about taking up space in my thread. It is welcomed. I don't expect people to always agree with me. I believe with the points you have present and the one I have presented, it will make for interesting reading, and the readers can make their conclusion.
Also, I still might make additional points as they come up, but it is in no way to show you up.
The only thing is I'm always right. (Just joking!!! I got to have a sense of humor because Eagle pays this thread a visit a lot.)


my dear friend

my simple contention was & is that nifty generally moves in the opposite direction to the usd/inr pair..to the extent that I have at one point in time even scalped both the mkts.. taking the other as cue. I had to stop this becos 10- 20 % of times there was a divergence to this norm.
now anyone who wants to check this out can check the 30min/1 hour/15min chart of both the instruments fr the past few days or months . apart frm a brief period sometime last month when both nifty and usd/inr were going down, which incidentally showed exceptional weekness in usd/inr and could become the trading oppertunity that I was speaking of earlier, they have moved opposite to each other, though the quantum of the move may vary frm time to time.
anyways I do not have any more motivation to carry this on furthar, I have already taken a lot of space on ur thread.

regards

another point that I missed is that I do not 'forecast' ......[/QUOTE]