Some of my forecasts
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Nifty
This is a cut-n-paste my blog, and the best update I can give for this market:
First, let's address the quick drop that this market has undertook. Quick and abrupt drops happen when markets get into extreme conditions, whether they be OB/OS or extreme readings from its mean.
Look at the daily. Price just missed the weekly TL, hit perfectly the extreme upper reading on the SD channel. The lower peak formed a 1-2-3, as support is market off with the yellow line. That was also an ichimoku support broken, as looking to the past. It all adds up to the market getting clobbered. All you have to do is place the trade in these conditions.
With all respect to SJD and his FA views, this market is headed lower, regardless of what may happen in the news in the future. I've still have 4907 and 4652 on the radar for the future. That latter has been on the radar since the break from the 6,000's earlier this year.
Having said that, I am still expecting a ST correction. This still a freight train. The ST correction to 5240 was shorter than expected. Having said that, a more formidable one is around the corner. AT this point trying to figure when is the big deal.
This is a cut-n-paste my blog, and the best update I can give for this market:
First, let's address the quick drop that this market has undertook. Quick and abrupt drops happen when markets get into extreme conditions, whether they be OB/OS or extreme readings from its mean.
Look at the daily. Price just missed the weekly TL, hit perfectly the extreme upper reading on the SD channel. The lower peak formed a 1-2-3, as support is market off with the yellow line. That was also an ichimoku support broken, as looking to the past. It all adds up to the market getting clobbered. All you have to do is place the trade in these conditions.
With all respect to SJD and his FA views, this market is headed lower, regardless of what may happen in the news in the future. I've still have 4907 and 4652 on the radar for the future. That latter has been on the radar since the break from the 6,000's earlier this year.
Having said that, I am still expecting a ST correction. This still a freight train. The ST correction to 5240 was shorter than expected. Having said that, a more formidable one is around the corner. AT this point trying to figure when is the big deal.
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Re: Nifty
Paul, my FA views are as immature as my TA views. Please do not think I am trying to counter something. [ I lost that battle a while ago ;-) ] Just trying to interpret the totality of the picture. Maybe 2 years down the line, I will pick one side, but I am not there yet. And so far, the mish-mash is working except for your comment about Nifty having an outlook of sub-4000 (3500-3600) which is outside the realm of my thinking and I have been trying to think "hard" on how to use it or escape from it.
Paul, my FA views are as immature as my TA views. Please do not think I am trying to counter something. [ I lost that battle a while ago ;-) ] Just trying to interpret the totality of the picture. Maybe 2 years down the line, I will pick one side, but I am not there yet. And so far, the mish-mash is working except for your comment about Nifty having an outlook of sub-4000 (3500-3600) which is outside the realm of my thinking and I have been trying to think "hard" on how to use it or escape from it.
To add the previous comment, one thing which has surprised me is the speed / velocity of the change. I have a model which has a component of stop loss, but it still requires holding some positions which obviously requires drawdowns. It is all manageable as long as it is within the parameters you set out ... but when you get into such a high speed ... wow !!!
Would you be able to (at some point) talk about how to predict the speed of changes. I think so far we have been talking about the end points (or targets or pivots) and speed will be an interesting aspect to discuss.
Thanks.
Would you be able to (at some point) talk about how to predict the speed of changes. I think so far we have been talking about the end points (or targets or pivots) and speed will be an interesting aspect to discuss.
Thanks.
can you guide me ,how momentum can be seprated from total voletility(momentum :speed of chang in price:velocity of the change
nly mathematical formula
nly mathematical formula
as your study is in depth in technicals,so basically main thing on which i want clarification from you that WHEATHER SOME MATHEMATICAL FORMULA HAS BEEN FORMED SO FOR TO SEGREGATE MOMENTUM FROM TOTAL VOLETILITY OR NOT IF IT HAS BEEN FORMED WHAT IS THAT,IF NOT IS THERE ANY OTHER WAY TO SEPRATE THESE TO COMPONENTS
THANKS IN ADVANCE
dear sanjosedesi,thanks for the quick reply.now i have asked this question from dear paul,you can under stand he is the right person to ask any difficult problem,for simple problems we can approach to any one
in reply to your question,although you dont have any idea regarding my leval of knowledge so i was not going to reply this question but as you repeated this question in reply to my question,so i will give reply of this question but after listening the learned views of mr. Paul on the above subject---thankd once again
in reply to your question,although you dont have any idea regarding my leval of knowledge so i was not going to reply this question but as you repeated this question in reply to my question,so i will give reply of this question but after listening the learned views of mr. Paul on the above subject---thankd once again
Re: Nifty
I was just getting ready to go to bed when I see you Ashwani rampaged my thread--lol.
I got a good laugh at some of these comments.
Keep in mind, sub- 4,000 is not confirmed yet, only 4657.
SJD, let me make a point, and hopefully you can just bury this in you crania. No jokes here. I think I've gotten to know you well, and so it is pertinent.
Don't try in your mind to manipulate the markets. If Nifty falls to 500, BIG DEAL!!! Just trade according to the directional bias of the markets. When I am think of placing a trade, I could care less which way the markets are going. I just need to discern the direction, place my trade, and exit with lots of pips. That's the whole object. I know what FA's have a way of doing
(key phrase). They create biases in the mind, then usually disappointment sets in when the markets to not go the biased direction. When Nifty was around 5700 (And you know my forecasts when it was at that point.), it was not a matter of the good guy winning the elections, so that is going to make the market spike 300 points north. NO!!! At 5700, prices hit extreme. See ya!!!! I'm on the jet going south.
I'm getting a little bug eyed from being tired, so whatever response don't get taken care of from this point, it's because it is midnight here.
I was just getting ready to go to bed when I see you Ashwani rampaged my thread--lol.
I got a good laugh at some of these comments.
Keep in mind, sub- 4,000 is not confirmed yet, only 4657.
SJD, let me make a point, and hopefully you can just bury this in you crania. No jokes here. I think I've gotten to know you well, and so it is pertinent.
Don't try in your mind to manipulate the markets. If Nifty falls to 500, BIG DEAL!!! Just trade according to the directional bias of the markets. When I am think of placing a trade, I could care less which way the markets are going. I just need to discern the direction, place my trade, and exit with lots of pips. That's the whole object. I know what FA's have a way of doing
(key phrase). They create biases in the mind, then usually disappointment sets in when the markets to not go the biased direction. When Nifty was around 5700 (And you know my forecasts when it was at that point.), it was not a matter of the good guy winning the elections, so that is going to make the market spike 300 points north. NO!!! At 5700, prices hit extreme. See ya!!!! I'm on the jet going south.
I'm getting a little bug eyed from being tired, so whatever response don't get taken care of from this point, it's because it is midnight here.
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