EUR/USD: The WR2 at 1.4410 needs to hold, or we are back in the uptrend towards 1.4500 and possibly beyond. For the time being, I am still holding to my MT view of cluster S being hit at 1.3906, and maybe cluster S at 1.3833. As long as the WR2 holds, then we should be headed to the WS1 at 1.4163. Depended on the nature of the move we could be headed to the WS2 at 1.4081.
We did hit 1.4500 as the peak was 1.4515. With the first attempt failing at 1.4475, another one was necessary, so it took later in the week for the peak to be realized, and so the dip only made it to 1.4257.
USD/JPY: This pair should be on its way to the WS2 this week at 75.50. We could see a rather strong spike that could take the pair into the low 75.00s. We could see the WR1 at 77.28 to the north.
We only made it to 77.08, then headed south to only 75.93. It was a very tight week for this pair.
GBP/USD: This pair is going to seem a little lost to start the week. It seems the correction to the UP is imminent, as well see a fall to the 4-hour tenken at 1.6213, and even allowing for a drop to the WS1 at 1.6174. I would expect that once the correction is finished that enough momentum should carry this pair past the top of the 4-hour cloud at 1.6358 and onward to the WR2 at 1.6472.
This pair played out more straightforward than I gave it credit for. Early in the week the correction was made, but only to 1.6253. The week actually ended just 8 pips under the WR2 at 1.6464. The peak was actually 1.6616.
USD/CHF: It has not been too often of late when I feel I have an accurate read on this pair. Im looking for the weekly tenken to contain this week at .7808, and then a strong reversal to the WS2 at .7383. The WS2 becomes a decision point after it is hit.
Whew! I was off on this pair again, but at least not much. The WR1 (.7977) contained the ride to the top as the peak was .8016. There was not much in the way of a pullback, as this pair just took off from the beginning.
EUR/CHF: This pair had a very strong impulsive 1,000-pip thrust from the dip last week. That could contain for awhile and lead to some very broad range volatile consolidation. This week, the daily kijun at 1.1116 should be hit, but any upside action should be contained by the confluence of the failing daily TL at 1.1380 and the WR1 at 1.1392. There is plenty of room to take the jet south to at least 1.0802, and even the mid 10500s, so be careful going either way.
Just to give an idea of how much noise this pair has been creating of late, this pair had a 399-pip hi-lo spread this week, and on the 4-hour, it looks like it went sideways being held in a tight squeeze all week. The TL and the WR1 did not contain, so the pair is probably headed to some more volatile consolidation. The peak was 1.1552 and the dip was 1.1153
AUD/USD: This week appears put cut-n-dry, and the S&Rs tell the story. The range appears to be the WR1 and the WS2, 1.0497 and 1.0070, respectively.
This pair had a strong move through the WR1, but was still contained under the WR2 (1.0632), as the peak was 1.0600. As a result the dip was just 39 pips on the other side of the WP at 1.0313.
USD/CAD: Last week I mentioned somewhere that the YS2 at .9068 could (key word) be hit. That is no longer the case. The only thing that has to happen this week is the daily cloud top needs to hold at .9739. That figure coincides nicely with my WS2 at .9733.
Containment held nicely as the dip was .9773.
NZD/USD: We got that strong reversal I was talking about, as the weekly kijun was hit at .7973. Once we get a close under the kijun, then that would also effectively put this pair under the daily cloud, and then we hop the jet again for a ride to .7522.
For this week, I would look for strong R to be found at the weekly tenken at .8380, daily kijun at .8400 with containment at the WR1 at .8448. After that, the journey south should resume.
The peak was in between the WR1 and the daily kijun at .8422. The reversal headed to the dip at .8168.
EUR/GBP: This market looks consolidative this week. It is hard to see beyond the 1s--.8811 and .8687, WR1 and WS1, respectively. Ultimately, the weekly cloud at .8605 will be hit. In the event that is broken, then .8510 provides solid MT containment.
The peak and the dip was only 18 pips above the R1 and 16 pips below the S1.
EUR/JPY: This pair has finally made the break out of the weekly cloud and has now been given the right of way to speed things up towards more southern hospitality. Any recovery this week should be limited well under the daily tenken at 111.08. The WR1 is 110.45, so that should be a nice area to pick up the ticket for the next major move south. We could see the WS2 at 106.88 get paid a visit this week.
The peak was 5 pips under the daily cloud at 111.03. The week started with a very strong spike, and that spike area created a very solid S, as the dip was only 108.99.
GBP/JPY: Any correction should be limited well under the daily TK combo at 127.03. This is where the WR1 at 126.36 becomes helpful. As long as it contains, then the WS2 at 121.75 should be hit.
This pair also started with a strong spike, and the peak was still contained just 9 pips under the TK combo at 126.94. In an ironic sense, the dip was higher than last weeks close (124.82) at 124.93.
