Some of my forecasts
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Re: Nifty
I saw on 4x's blog that he is away, so I thought I will rampage his thread and answer this.
Trendlines are discussed at http://www.traderji.com/technical-analysis/52173-4xpipcounters-trendlines.html
SD channel is discussed on his blog (google his name), check the archives for April 29, 2011 plus or minus 1 day. In fact, there seems to be some discussion on trend lines in the same time period.
OK here comes a big silly question again ! sir stochastic, ichimoku are indicators !! what about Trendlines, proprietary S&R's, and Standard deviation channel? do you draw them ? how can i use them in my charts
Trendlines are discussed at http://www.traderji.com/technical-analysis/52173-4xpipcounters-trendlines.html
SD channel is discussed on his blog (google his name), check the archives for April 29, 2011 plus or minus 1 day. In fact, there seems to be some discussion on trend lines in the same time period.
SJD, this is how my S&R's measure a trend's range, the point at which there is a retracement within the trend.
I described this in the blog, but for the benefit of readers here, I'll say that the 1 is the 1st point that there should be a correction. Sometimes it does not happen, and then we get what is called a continuation. The continuation keeps motoring to the 2, and then the correction at that point will head back to the 1, which will be have the distance from the P to the 2.
The 3 is a bit of a different story. It is approximately 1.6 times the distance of 1>2. If that gets hit, it indicates a very strong trend for that month (in this case). There will usually be a bounce 38.2% of the distance of 2>3. If the 3 is taken out, stay out of its way unless you were on board beforehand. It is just that-- a freight train out of control.
Usually there will be that pull right back to that point, so it will be interesting to see if this month the market can pull this one off. Here's another fact where there is hardly an exceptional to the rule. The 3 going the same direction is hardly ever hit in consecutive TF's. In other words, the MS3 will not be hit next month. Also, the WS3 was barely hit this past week, so the WS3 at 4503 will not be hit next week.
I described this in the blog, but for the benefit of readers here, I'll say that the 1 is the 1st point that there should be a correction. Sometimes it does not happen, and then we get what is called a continuation. The continuation keeps motoring to the 2, and then the correction at that point will head back to the 1, which will be have the distance from the P to the 2.
The 3 is a bit of a different story. It is approximately 1.6 times the distance of 1>2. If that gets hit, it indicates a very strong trend for that month (in this case). There will usually be a bounce 38.2% of the distance of 2>3. If the 3 is taken out, stay out of its way unless you were on board beforehand. It is just that-- a freight train out of control.
Usually there will be that pull right back to that point, so it will be interesting to see if this month the market can pull this one off. Here's another fact where there is hardly an exceptional to the rule. The 3 going the same direction is hardly ever hit in consecutive TF's. In other words, the MS3 will not be hit next month. Also, the WS3 was barely hit this past week, so the WS3 at 4503 will not be hit next week.
Re: Nifty
The SD channel is an indicator. Trendlines are a drawing tool on your MT4 platform. My proprietary S&R's are just that, so there is no indicator, nothing for them. As I mentioned before, I will give the levels for them, but not the formula. This is why also have alluded to Demarks, Woodies, Camarilla, or Murrays as a set of static S&R's (They could also be called pivots.) to look into.
Everything I mentioned you can plot on your chart.
SJD mentioned the section on my blog that features the usage of TL's and the SD channel. I also did a thread on this forum on TL's. Just look at my profile. That way my profile gets another hit (LOL, just joking about that.).
After I posted that, I noticed SJD mentioned the thread.
Thanks, SJD.
The SD channel is an indicator. Trendlines are a drawing tool on your MT4 platform. My proprietary S&R's are just that, so there is no indicator, nothing for them. As I mentioned before, I will give the levels for them, but not the formula. This is why also have alluded to Demarks, Woodies, Camarilla, or Murrays as a set of static S&R's (They could also be called pivots.) to look into.
Everything I mentioned you can plot on your chart.
SJD mentioned the section on my blog that features the usage of TL's and the SD channel. I also did a thread on this forum on TL's. Just look at my profile. That way my profile gets another hit (LOL, just joking about that.).
After I posted that, I noticed SJD mentioned the thread.
Thanks, SJD.
OK here comes a big silly question again ! sir stochastic, ichimoku are indicators !! what about Trendlines, proprietary S&R's, and Standard deviation channel? do you draw them ? how can i use them in my charts
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Weekly Forecast-- 082111
EUR/USD: This week containment to the south should be 1.4237, which matches nicely with my WS2 at 1.4249. Overall, there is still much MT support which is disallowing the pair to head lower. OTOH, as the pair looks higher, there is much consolidation. If we get above 1.4600, it could be a very quick trip to 1.4900s.
USD/JPY: There is plenty of room for this pair to move north, but the nature of the move would be corrective only. I wont be surprised to see the WR3 at 77.67 hit this week. Temporary downside containment is circa 75.10.
GBP/USD: The weekly kijun has been hit the last 5 consecutive weeks and should contain again this week at 1.6261, which matches nicely with my WS2 at 1.6264. If the pair makes it back to that level, then there may be no new highs this week as the WR1 could be the limit at 1.6564. Still, the Wr2 is worth keeping an eye on at 1.6665.
USD/CHF: Im looking for this pair to make a move to the daily kijun at .7671, and would not be surprised to see the WS3 hit this week at .7600. The WR2 at .7988 has to contain to the north, or we will have another Swissy mess.
After this down move is complete, there will be strong R in the .8127 to .8275 area to contain for another move south. What we should see happening this week is the first reversal of any significance sine the dip at .7066.
EUR/CHF: Im looking for this pair to make a move to the daily kijun at 1.0977, and would not be surprised to see the WS3 hit this week at 1.0895. Look for the WR2 at 1.1520 to contain to the north. The WR1 at 1.1409 is favored.
AUD/USD: It should be noted what is happening with this pair right now. A correction of the entire uptrend from .6007 to 1.1078 is going on. The monthly TF is the dominant one, and eventually there should be a drop to the kijun, currently at .9390 before the UP is to resume. 1.0600 should now be containment within this larger scope of things.
This week we should see a move to the daily tenken at 1.0263, and even allowing for a spike to the WS2 at 1.0243. Depended on the nature of this move containment to the north will be either the WR1 or WR2, 1.0480 and 1.0559, respectively.
USD/CAD: If last weeks top at .9936 is taken out, then it could be a very strong move to 1.0081. Nevertheless, that circa area will be containment, as from there, we will see some consolidation before a move further north is witnessed. The .9707--.9756 appears to be strong MT containment to the south.
NZD/USD: Read the report on the Aussie, and you have a similar scenario developing with this pair, except along with the monthly, the weekly is also dominant, which means we have 2/3s of the trifecta working. There is no doubt we are headed to the monthly kijun at .7472, and we should see a drop to the top of the cloud currently at .6556.
As far as this week is concerned, we just had a fresh break under the 4-hour cloud. It is expected that the kijun will contain at .8295, which coincides with the WR2 at .8319. The bottom of the daily cloud is .8128, which should serve as strong S, and the WS1 is .8110. We might see some sideways action before the next strong move south. Things should pick up once there is a convincing break of the daily cloud.
EUR/GBP: The TK combo at .8773 will be initial R. If broken, then there is a shot at the bottom of the cloud at .8845. The bottom of the cloud matches nicely with my WR2 at .8839. The area should be containment to the north. To the south, look for the top of the weekly cloud to provide strong S at .8599, even though I doubt it will be hit this week.
EUR/JPY: This pair has made it back into the 4-hour cloud, and the momentum indicates it should be a lock to hit the top at 111.08. That level matches perfectly with the daily kijun, and it even allows for a spike to the WR2 at 111.28. Believe it or not, this will be a decision point and could result in a strong move either way. There is double divergence on the daily, and the weekly is getting the squeeze put on it, in spite of a mild break of the bottom of the cloud. If the mentioned R area is taken out, then the next point to look for a reaction at would be 112.46.
GBP/JPY: The weekly TL is losing a lot of its elasticity. A convincing break of 126.26 will lead this pair to some consolidation over coming weeks before starting another leg south. Look for upside containment to be between the bottom of the weekly cloud at 130.47 and the kijun at 131.35.
EUR/USD: This week containment to the south should be 1.4237, which matches nicely with my WS2 at 1.4249. Overall, there is still much MT support which is disallowing the pair to head lower. OTOH, as the pair looks higher, there is much consolidation. If we get above 1.4600, it could be a very quick trip to 1.4900s.
USD/JPY: There is plenty of room for this pair to move north, but the nature of the move would be corrective only. I wont be surprised to see the WR3 at 77.67 hit this week. Temporary downside containment is circa 75.10.
GBP/USD: The weekly kijun has been hit the last 5 consecutive weeks and should contain again this week at 1.6261, which matches nicely with my WS2 at 1.6264. If the pair makes it back to that level, then there may be no new highs this week as the WR1 could be the limit at 1.6564. Still, the Wr2 is worth keeping an eye on at 1.6665.
USD/CHF: Im looking for this pair to make a move to the daily kijun at .7671, and would not be surprised to see the WS3 hit this week at .7600. The WR2 at .7988 has to contain to the north, or we will have another Swissy mess.
After this down move is complete, there will be strong R in the .8127 to .8275 area to contain for another move south. What we should see happening this week is the first reversal of any significance sine the dip at .7066.
EUR/CHF: Im looking for this pair to make a move to the daily kijun at 1.0977, and would not be surprised to see the WS3 hit this week at 1.0895. Look for the WR2 at 1.1520 to contain to the north. The WR1 at 1.1409 is favored.
AUD/USD: It should be noted what is happening with this pair right now. A correction of the entire uptrend from .6007 to 1.1078 is going on. The monthly TF is the dominant one, and eventually there should be a drop to the kijun, currently at .9390 before the UP is to resume. 1.0600 should now be containment within this larger scope of things.
This week we should see a move to the daily tenken at 1.0263, and even allowing for a spike to the WS2 at 1.0243. Depended on the nature of this move containment to the north will be either the WR1 or WR2, 1.0480 and 1.0559, respectively.
USD/CAD: If last weeks top at .9936 is taken out, then it could be a very strong move to 1.0081. Nevertheless, that circa area will be containment, as from there, we will see some consolidation before a move further north is witnessed. The .9707--.9756 appears to be strong MT containment to the south.
NZD/USD: Read the report on the Aussie, and you have a similar scenario developing with this pair, except along with the monthly, the weekly is also dominant, which means we have 2/3s of the trifecta working. There is no doubt we are headed to the monthly kijun at .7472, and we should see a drop to the top of the cloud currently at .6556.
As far as this week is concerned, we just had a fresh break under the 4-hour cloud. It is expected that the kijun will contain at .8295, which coincides with the WR2 at .8319. The bottom of the daily cloud is .8128, which should serve as strong S, and the WS1 is .8110. We might see some sideways action before the next strong move south. Things should pick up once there is a convincing break of the daily cloud.
EUR/GBP: The TK combo at .8773 will be initial R. If broken, then there is a shot at the bottom of the cloud at .8845. The bottom of the cloud matches nicely with my WR2 at .8839. The area should be containment to the north. To the south, look for the top of the weekly cloud to provide strong S at .8599, even though I doubt it will be hit this week.
EUR/JPY: This pair has made it back into the 4-hour cloud, and the momentum indicates it should be a lock to hit the top at 111.08. That level matches perfectly with the daily kijun, and it even allows for a spike to the WR2 at 111.28. Believe it or not, this will be a decision point and could result in a strong move either way. There is double divergence on the daily, and the weekly is getting the squeeze put on it, in spite of a mild break of the bottom of the cloud. If the mentioned R area is taken out, then the next point to look for a reaction at would be 112.46.
GBP/JPY: The weekly TL is losing a lot of its elasticity. A convincing break of 126.26 will lead this pair to some consolidation over coming weeks before starting another leg south. Look for upside containment to be between the bottom of the weekly cloud at 130.47 and the kijun at 131.35.
Nifty
The initial target after the break of 5171 at 4907 has been hit with plenty to spare. There is plenty of room for recovery on the 4-hour, daily, and weekly TF's. The initial test on the correction will be 5024. Once that is broken convincingly, the next R will be the 4-hour kijun at 5144. The correction could take us to the daily kijun at 5250. There are lots of miscellaneous R on the way to the latter point, but that is just something to look for on the journey north. The next MT target south is 4652.
The initial target after the break of 5171 at 4907 has been hit with plenty to spare. There is plenty of room for recovery on the 4-hour, daily, and weekly TF's. The initial test on the correction will be 5024. Once that is broken convincingly, the next R will be the 4-hour kijun at 5144. The correction could take us to the daily kijun at 5250. There are lots of miscellaneous R on the way to the latter point, but that is just something to look for on the journey north. The next MT target south is 4652.
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