Some of my forecasts

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4xpipcounter

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Re: Static S&R's II--GBP/USD

SAif, thank-you. the posted charts will bear out that a perfect reversal does not always happen. Part of the confidence in trading my S&R's is to be able to get into a trade with low risk. I track 28 forex pairs, and on the weeklies those opportunities happen 2-3 times per week. Some of the pairs with high spreads or slow movers are not worth the time, but it's still nice to have all those opportunities at your disposal.


LOL SIR IT HIT YOUR WS1 at 1.6364 and went up ! I don't know how do you know that it is gonna hit there I wish i could do that :)) and sir looks like i bought at the right time :)and Sir the above chart is head and shoulders pattern ! selling at the neck line could also have been good! but i didn't notice :)
 

EagleOne

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Hi Paul
I just finished watching an old Sherlock Holmes episode after plucking apples and pomegranates (the real ones from the orchard) whole day. So no trading today. Thought to see your posts. Man, you are good with charts!
Can I say something? It is not what you see in the charts - God, even a novice can see without any S&R! - It is your conviction to follow through what you see, what you believe will happen. That is the hardest part, if you know what I mean. People aren't good at believing, buddy, and that's what makes them miserable.

I receive PMs asking my advice (a joke really!). I say the same. Follow what you see.

I am tired of writing on TJ, Paul. Really. Even if a trader friend calls me right now, I am gonna warn him beforehand 'talk anything - family, weather, pets, music, films, books, girls, xxx, whatever - but the markets. Or put the fone down!'
 

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
You know what is so strange about your comment in the 2nd para? I tell people the same basic thing when developing a methodology, except it is no joke. They ask me questions like, "What are the right indicators" What are the right TF's to trade? What are the right markets to trade?"
I'm thinking, "I don't know." My reply is trading is personal. I've been talking to Saif, and he is telling me the ichimoku is too complicated. He's an oscillator type. In essence, the ichimoku is not for him. Oscillators (plural) are not for me. As long as the equity keeps growing, that is all that counts. Still, trading is something very personal. People that follow my blog will ask me different things. At times, I feel like I have to be a psychologist and a detective all at the same time.

I enjoyed your lifestyle for 2 weeks. I closed all my trades the Monday before vacation, and was flat all that time. I got to kick back and just read the charts.

I got started on my S&R kick in my blog. I baited readers of the thread to not only tell me if they wanted to see some of those charts posted, but also for anyone (still baiting) to give me a market I have a chart on to show them the activity. This is to enforce the fact I do not have to sit here and cherry picks through a few markets just to make a point or look good. The other thing is I try to convey the confidence in the methodology and the trading decisions it brings. The confidence comes from the experience, and the experience is bred from the developmental process of the methodology up to exercising self in that methodology. This is also why I think newbies only goal should be to get some winning trades under their belt and just see consistent gains in the equity. 10 pips a trade, 5-10 times a week is much better than 100 pips per trade once a week with no consistency. Once the confidence grows, you almost feel like you are bullet proof. Yeah, yeah, then the market comes and humbles you, and then its back to work.

Another thing was I figured on trading only my S&R's this week, which is simply done through entry orders. I thought my screen time was going to be a lot more limited than it really was this week. Every once in awhile, this is necessary. It is weeks like this one that tells me that I may get a lot of the short choppy trades (25-35 pips), but ROI is the same as looking for the 100-200-pip jobs, and letting them run 2-3 days.

Funny thought: Eagle had to pluck the apples and pomegranates before the rest of the birds did.

BTW, I hope what you implied only means a break and nothing permanent.


Hi Paul
I just finished watching an old Sherlock Holmes episode after plucking apples and pomegranates (the real ones from the orchard) whole day. So no trading today. Thought to see your posts. Man, you are good with charts!
Can I say something? It is not what you see in the charts - God, even a novice can see without any S&R! - It is your conviction to follow through what you see, what you believe will happen. That is the hardest part, if you know what I mean. People aren't good at believing, buddy, and that's what makes them miserable.

I receive PMs asking my advice (a joke really!). I say the same. Follow what you see.

I am tired of writing on TJ, Paul. Really. Even if a trader friend calls me right now, I am gonna warn him beforehand 'talk anything - family, weather, pets, music, films, books, girls, whatever - but the markets. Or put the fone down!'
 

EagleOne

Well-Known Member
If Ichimoku is complicated, then always-lagging-behind oscillators are a rocket science! The thing is pure Zen! God, Paul, you have patience with people. I don't - never will!

That's how you become brutally honest after spending time with Nature. Ask Tucker, he will nod, YES! :D
 

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
Gbp/usd



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We already talked about the WS1 supporting the trip south. Price action is at the bottom of the 4-hour cloud which adds additional support. What I believe is going to happen is that the MP at 1.6422 will be revisited on this drive. As you can tell on this hourly chart, there is plenty of room to do so. The tenken has caved at the arch you see now about the time I copied this chart. It will provide R if the pair makes it beyond the MP. As long as the hourly kijun at 1.6447 contains, then the last 1 1/2 days of this week should see a sprint to the WS2 at 1.6264, as per my Weekly Forecast. That is a containment level and not a target.
 

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
It's called a hobby. Others call it patience--lol.
That's why in trading we choose what is best for the individual. I'd give up pancakes before I would the ichimoku. Others don't like it. Without sounding egocentric, I think my methodology is the best there is. But...that is exactly how everyone should feel about theirs. And please! If you got something that will help me improve it, I am all ears.

Now getting back to Tucker. We had the grandchildren over. He is now with me here in The Cave sleeping. There will be no head nodding for him right now. Shhhhhh.

Hehehe, got to listen to this one. Some of the kids were over (Got 6 of them.). One was going on and on about me and Tucker being so close. She says, "You and that dog! I think you spend more time with him than you do Mom." My reply: "Of course I do. We have more in common."
That comment cost me a meal. I had to take her out instead of getting a home-cooked one.


If Ichimoku is complicated, then always-lagging-behind oscillators are a rocket science! The thing is pure Zen! God, Paul, you have patience with people. I don't - never will!

That's how you become brutally honest after spending time with Nature. Ask Tucker, he will nod, YES! :D
 
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