Stocks To Keep A Close Eye On - Chapter II

[uma_k]

Hi All,

Updates for 24-09-09 are as follows:

Targets Reached:

HCLTECH, Profit 22.80%

INDUSINDBK, Profit 17.72%

IOC, Profit 12.76%

LUPIN, Profit 25.12%

PARSVNATH, Profit 49.54%

RANBAXY, Profit 24.54%

Targets and SL for the above awaited from Savantji

Stop Loss Hit:

ICSA, Profit 11.01%

Updated Excel file attached.

Regards

*** Uma ***

 

[ashishtalyan]

Savant Ji , I am holding following stocks bought from oct to dec 08.i AM SITTING ON BUMPER PROFIT.But my problem is that where to figure out STOP LOSS in these scrips. When to sell stock in which we make sufficient money???

1. LITL@169
2.RELIANCE@ 1293
3.JSW STEEL @238
4.PUNJ LLYOD@172
5.SAIL@89
6.SBIN@1215

 

[kenneth]

Hi Fahed,

Are you using quotes from Yahoo? Check the Quotes for 24-09-2009. They are: Open=229, High=236, Low=229 and Close=232.55. SMA(20) for the same day is 230.23.

-Anant

Hi Fahed,

Check the last date of the exploration

Symbol	Trigger Date	Signal	C. M. P.Target	StopLoss	Reward%	Risk%	Reward/Risk	
ITC	7/7/2009	B	211.20	242.60	187.20	14.87	11.36	 1.31	
ITC	8/11/2009	S	225.70						
ITC	8/25/2009	B	240.50	267.75	220.15	11.33	 8.46	 1.34	
ITC	9/3/2009	S	226.80						
ITC	9/24/2009	B	232.55	249.60	222.40	 7.33	 4.36	 1.68

Regards
ken

 

[kenneth]

Ken can you please post the afl here. There is a lot of difference with my values and yours.

Filter = TgtReached OR SLHit;

SetOption("NoDefaultColumns", True);

AddColumn(DateTime(), "Updated On", formatDateTime, colorDefault, colorDefault, 96);
AddTextColumn(Name(), "Symbol", 77, colorDefault, colorDefault, 120);
AddColumn(BuyDate, "Buy Date", formatDateTime, colorDefault, colorDefault, 96);
AddColumn(BuyPrice, "Buy Price", 6.2);
AddColumn(NextTgt, "Target", 6.2);
AddColumn(SL, "StopLoss", 6.2);
AddColumn(C, "CMP", 6.2, colorDefault, colorDefault, 96);
AddColumn(IIf(TgtReached, 89, 32), "Tgt Hit?", formatChar, colorYellow, IIf(TgtReached, colorGreen, colorDefault));
AddColumn(IIf(SLHit, 89, 32), "SL-Hit", formatChar, colorYellow, IIf(SLHit, colorRed, colorDefault));
}
//Calculation
Rewardpc = IIf(Buy OR Bought, ((NextTgt-C) * 100) / C, Null);
Riskpc = IIf(Buy OR Bought, ((SL-C)*100) / C, Null);
RewardRiskRatio = IIf(Buy OR Bought, Rewardpc/abs(Riskpc), Null);

//Exploration Table additional columns
AddColumn(IIf(Buy OR Bought, Rewardpc, Null),"Reward%", 5.2) ;
AddColumn(IIf(Buy OR Bought, -Riskpc, Null), "Risk%", 5.2);
AddColumn(IIf(Buy OR Bought, RewardRiskRatio, Null), "Reward/Risk", 5.2);



Regards
ken

 

[kenneth]

Hi fahed,

Edit Anants ""Single Ema" AFL and Just add the following
//Calculation
Rewardpc = IIf(Buy OR Bought, ((NextTgt-C) * 100) / C, Null);
Riskpc = IIf(Buy OR Bought, ((SL-C)*100) / C, Null);
RewardRiskRatio = IIf(Buy OR Bought, Rewardpc/abs(Riskpc), Null);

//Exploration Table additional columns
AddColumn(IIf(Buy OR Bought, Rewardpc, Null),"Reward%", 5.2) ;
AddColumn(IIf(Buy OR Bought, -Riskpc, Null), "Risk%", 5.2);
AddColumn(IIf(Buy OR Bought, RewardRiskRatio, Null), "Reward/Risk", 5.2);

or replace entire code after Filter

Regards
Ken

 

[asnavale]

Dear SavantGarde Sir,

I am regularly trading on your calls, But sir have explained your technique (AFL,etc) in any other post since I am very desperately looking for it. You can delete my post if I am violating any rules.

Regards,
Fahed

Hi Fahed,

SG has not given any AFL. He does not use any software like AmiBroker. But he has explained his techniques in the mother thread. Just search that thread. Even recently he has posted it.

-Anant

 

[asnavale]

Hi Friends,

NEW TRIGGERS of Today (for trading on 29-09-09) are given below:

BUY TRIGGERS:

-------------------------------------------------
SYMBOL      |  C. M. P. | TARGET    |  STOPLOSS 
-------------------------------------------------
AUROPHARMA  |   745.25  |   849.65   |   670.15
DCHL        |   123.20  |   137.60   |   111.00
MCDOWELL-N  |   913.30  |   997.00   |   879.00
-------------------------------------------------

SELL TRIGGERS:

----------------------------------------------------------
SYMBOL      | Buy Date | Buy Price |  C.M.P.  |  P / L %  
----------------------------------------------------------
............. N  O  T  R  I  G  G  E  R  S ...............
----------------------------------------------------------

TARGETS REACHED

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
SYMBOL      |  BUY DATE  | BUY PRICE  |  TARGET   |  C. M. P.  |  PROFIT 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIOCON      |  26-08-09  |    237.20  |   253.00  |    257.45  |    8.55 %
DRREDDY     |  11-09-09  |    815.85  |   956.80  |    987.55  |   21.04 %
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

STOP LOSS HIT

-------------------------------------------------------------------
SYMBOL      | Buy Date | Buy Price | STOPLOSS | C.M.P.  |  P / L %  
-------------------------------------------------------------------
..........  N O   S T O P   L O S S   H I T   T O D A Y  ..........
-------------------------------------------------------------------

TRADE THESE TRIGGERS AT YOUR OWN RISK


Regards

-Anant

 

[kenneth]

SG's System and FAQ anwered By Savanji

a) The is Originally system Based On 20/50 Crossover Not 5 & 6

b) When The BUY Was Given The First Time Which Was I Think 1st Week Of April, They Were Fresh Crossover Triggers Of 20/50

c) Once A Stock Has A Strong Uptrend, & Then If Somebody Wants To Enter, It Is Better To Enter On Retracement, Or It May Have A Few Days Of Trend Reversal, Therefore It Can Be Entered On Trend Resumption

The StopLoss and Targets are based on this system.

STOP Loss:

If You Follow The 20/50 Triggers Then Here Is A Method Of Trailing S/L Which Should Work Well In Protecting Your Profits.....

1) Day Of Entry No S/L
2) T+1 You Calculate 50-DMA As On T & Keep The S/L On T+1
3) T+2 You Calculate 49-DMA As On T+1 & Keep The S/L On T+2
4) T+3 You Calculate 48-DMA As On T+2 & Keep The S/L On T+3

This Keeps Happening Till You Reach 10-DMA Which Remains Constant But Changes For Each Day That Elapses, Because You Re-Calculate 10-DMA At Every EOD For Next Day... That Is How One Can Protect The Downside...& Let The Profit Run...& Keeps Losses To Manageable Limits.

Buy Quantity:

Quantity Of Share To BUY Is Position Sized For Rs.20000 Available For Each Scrip (Adjust Qty. Depending On Your Availability)

Let's Say You Have 1 Lac. & You Want To Invest In 5 Companies That Would Mean You Are Allocating 20K For Each Company. Therefore, 20K Means If It Was Allocated For One Company, You Would Be Required To Purchase The Quantity Mentioned @ Recommended BUY Price, It Is Called Position Sizing & Adheres To Money Management Rules Laid Down, So That Risk Amount Is Not More Than 1-2% Of 20K.

You Can Adjust Quantity Of Shares As Per Your Risk Or Allocation Of Funds.




For Swing Trading he has Recommended The Following Few, You May Adopt Whichever You Are Comfortable With:

a) If The Whole Candle Including The Wick Closes Above 20 EMA For Long & S/L Should Be If 70% Of The Candle Body Is Below The 20 EMA.

b) Second Strategy Is To Go Long 20/50 SMA Crossover, Where 20 MA Has Crossed Over To The Upside Of The 50 SMA

c) Third Strategy Is Go Long On 5/6 SMA Crossover

d) If Following Candlestick Pattern Then You Will Be Familiar With Bullish Engulf & Bearish Engulf Patterns.

e) Another One Is Based On BB If The Lower BB Is Pierced Followed By A Green Candle Immediately....For Long & If Upper BB Is Pierced Immediately Followed By A Red Candle To Go Short.

Q & A

1) When the target price is reached are we supposed to close the trade (even if it is same day)?

Ans. Not Really If The Stock Is Still In Strong Uptrend, Then There Will Be Further Targets With New S/Ls....That Is Why I Mentioned In My Post For Those Taking Entries To Inform Me Once A Target Has Been Reached, It Is A Little Time Consuming For Me To Keep Track On A Daily Basis.

2) If the recommended buy price is not reached what should be done. I mean, if the days High is lower than the recommended Buy price, should we ignore the trigger. In other words, whether the Buy action should be initiated only if that price is reached?

Ans. Actually I Am Suppose To Check If There Was An Entry Point Or Not, Whether Entry Or S/L Whatever The Case Maybe Was Reached Or Not, It Is A Bit Of A Logistical Problem From My End, Thus It Is My Fault For Not Being Able To Keep A Detailed Track On A Daily Basis. It Is Safer To BUY At The Recommended Price, Price Is Nothing But Previous Days HIGH, Cause We Want To Enter When It Is Showing Strength.....In The Process We Do Give Away Some Bucks, But Safer In My Opinion.


3) If the day's low is higher than the recommended price what is the strategy? Do we buy at the available rate which will be higher than the recommended price?

Ans. Yes It Is Quite Ok To Enter At A Price Higher Than Indicated, Only Thing One Should Use Their Own Discretion, Meaning If The Stock Has Jumped Up Quite A Bit, Then Ideally One Should Wait To Enter On Some Retracement.
The Order Of Triggers Are In Strength Of The Stock & Could Be Because Of Any Of The Following Reasons:

a) Expansion Breakout:
Stock Made A Two Month High & Days Range Was Large.
Therefore, Stock Has A Greater Chance Of Going HIGHER In The Short Term -Next 4 To 5 Days.

b) Trend Reversal To BULLISH:
Stock Was In A Downtrend & Now It Is In An Uptrend
20 DMA Has Crossed The 50 DMA To The Upside.

c) Buy On Retracement For Strong UP Trending Stock:
Stock Has A Strong Uptrend & It Made A Brief Retracement.
Therefore, Stock Has A Greater Chance Of Going HIGHER In The Short Term - ext 4 To 5 Days.
Suggested Strategy: Buy A Little Above Previous Trading Day's High & Place A S/L A Little Below Previous Trading Days Low

d) Buy On Trend Reversal:
Stock Was In A Downtrend & Gapped Lower BUT It Ended The Day Higher
Therefore, Stock Has A Greater Chance Of Going HIGHER In The Short Term - Next 4 To 5 days.
Suggested Strategy: Buy A Little Above Previous Trading Day's High & Place A S/L Sell A Little Below Previous Trading Days Low.

e) Trend Reversal To BULLISH:
Stock Was In A Downtrend & Now It Is In An Uptrend
20 DMA Has Crossed The 50 DMA To The Upside.

Happy and Safe Trading

Regards
Ken

 

[uma_k]

Savantji,

RPL is suspended because of merger. What to do with it in the Triggers List?

Regards

*** Uma ***

 

[uma_k]

Hi All,

Updates for 25-09-2009 are as follows:

NO STOPLOSS HIT

Targets Reached:

BALAJITELE, Profit = 22.98% (Next Target 89.45 S/L 65.50)

ESCORTS, Profit = 15.55% (Next Target 127.40 S/L 80.15)

SUNTV, Profit = 32.97% (Next Target 366.30 S/L 301.10)

New Targets for these will be set by Savantji

RPL is suspended from trading due to merger with RELIANCE. The same is shown as 'Scrip Suspended' in the Excel Sheet.

Updated Excel sheet attached. You can also see it here.

Regards


*** Uma ***