hi folks,
here is food for thought and something to chew on this fine sunday morning. Some independent opinions and fresh views could generate a healthy dscussion.
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Posted by: sd3 on (01-Aug-09 22:23 )
Kalidas Says …. Saturday, August 01, 2009
While recovery has been touted, I do not see real evidence. What you see today is the short term positive figures that will be revised downward later on. The companies are still firing the employees. The profit margin is under severe pressure. The credits are simply not coming.
Yes, the markets are rising very fast, which may give the impression that we are leaving lots of opportunities on the table. Had there been even 20% real time recovery, I would have changed my call from sell to buy, though in specific counters, I always ask the investors to buy such as Hindalco, RNRL, RCOM, Petronet, Hotel Leela, SAIL etc. But to invest heavily into this market, just because a neighbor next door makes more money than you do, is not called investment, but a monkey business.
The Indian market is rising better than western market, and I was proved right that India may not suffer as much as Western market does. First, political rally was there, and now Monkey rally is there (it goes up because world markets are going up). Many of the Indian corporate are showing inflated profits and they are deliberately concealing derivative losses in the name of forex losses. Look at Reliance Industry Ltd. The large losses at RPL was absorbed in its books by merging their operation with RIL. How come RIL had smaller margin and Essar oil and ONGC higher? It does not make any sense. The analysts are just believing what they are told.
Look at the political events. Why China and US are meeting frequently at the highest level? Why the person of the status of Vice Premier goes to USA and meet the Treasury officials? The reason is that China appears to have issued advance notice that it will not buy treasuries and instead will lighten up.
Please note that Dow is rising against the backdrop of dollar falling, that means that the rally is domestic driven with trillions of dollars being pumped in is used to jack up the stocks. When the people do not have jobs, no money to pay for insurance nor health care, not even for food, where they will find money from to invest into stocks. That means that only large banks who are recipient of trillions of dollars from FED are being asked to invest into stocks near the fag end of the market so that it does not fall.
This is a con game. It does not last long. And why Gold is not falling when the market rose by 8% in a month? There is something which we do not know.
I am therefore stock specific. I am selling my portfolio steadily and will certainly lighten up by last week of August. When the fund managers return in September and if some treasury auction fails, you may see violent reaction. In fact, I expect street violence in entire USA in next 3 to 6 months or so.
Look at TATA, He does not find increased in sales nor he finds money to settle his debt. He is not able to sell his prized acquisition – Corus Steel which is a big stone around his neck. He is sinking.
I suggest you do not read too much into market and invest into specific stocks. And let me tell you, if there is real recovery in the US market, the flow of money will be redirected to USA from all emerging markets. So when the US markets rise in real economic terms, the Indian markets will fall. And the people will be surprised. Mark this post for your future reference
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Posted by: googol on (02-Aug-09 09:40 )
This message is for those who find the message from Mr.Kalidas bitter and unpalatable.
Mr.Kalidas used to post messages here in MMB regularly until a year back,when he started his own blog and shifted.
He is an extremely successful and knowledgeable senior Financial Professional who could predict the great crash of Jan`08 two months earlier(Nov`07) thro sound reasons and logic and not thro` charts which a few used to do right from Jan`06!Ironically then also,he was considered as a villain by many from Nov`07 and became a super star by Feb`08
His views can not be just brushed aside as can be done with some `Dooms Sayers` here!
Good Luck