Teach A Man To Fish And.........

[Saint]

Originally Posted by skarpio
I am one more fan of your technicals course I had posted this in some other thread. I have two questions:
[1] Is my analysis in error?
[2] Where should the stop have been?

Note: this post was on 28th Feb 08 -- so if you keep the candles from 29th onwards out, and then dissect, it will probably be easier for me to grasp.

Regards,
skarpio

Hi Skarpio,

No error.....except for one thing.That huge fall forming a big tail on 22nd Jan......now usually that's not how inverted h&s looks like if you factor that tail in.......but you have done no wrong in ignoring the tail,and looking at the candle bodies,and correctly stating that it looks like an inv h&s.Volume analysis also tallies.......The classical trade in an inv H&s goes like this:Buy the high volume breakout over the neckline on 27th of Feb.Your stop would be the low of the right shoulder i.e 98.05.....Give it some breathing space.Put the SL at 97.50.

If you had taken this trade,you would still be in it......your SL at the same place as before.Once Power Grid goes to new recent highs over 113,move
SL to the low of present pivot...

Well done,Skarpio!

Saint

 

[Saint]

[1] Very interesting -- the tail you mentioned. I had, in my analysis, tentatively incorporated a certain amount of subjective discretion by choosing to ignore the tail. However, mathematics/logic does not allow such liberties. It would be great if you can share your thoughts on this!

[2] As you will have noticed, I was late to hop onto this one (my analysis is dated 28th and I entered a trade on 29th). But I rued that one myself quite a bit

[3] I am still in it (though not bigtime since this was meant to be a Proof-of-Concept trade) . One more question here: when you say pivot you mean the daily pivot (since my analysis was on daily), right?

Thank you for the detailed explanation on H&S and its associated SL!

I wish I could express how much the last line means to me!

Also, if this dialogue helps others, feel free to post it (after suitable editing) in one of your threads. Also, let me know which of the following -- pm-ing you or polluting your "Teach a man ..." thread is convenient for you should need be in future.

Regards,
skarpio

From the PM,with your permission.....shall answer shortly.

Saint

 

[Saint]

Had to move this thread directly under Technical Analysis after lots of requests stating that it was impossible to find the thread.....

Saint

 

[Saint]

Thank you very much saint

Regards
Satya

Most welcome,Satya!

Saint

 

[AvinashRaste]

Dear Saint,

I am a newbee in this field. And I try to learn the TA with a clear uderstanding of indicators. I am trying to calculate the Bollinger Band in excel, but somehow the created bands are mirror images of each other and not like one I've seen in BSE website or in TA Softwares like F Chart. I tried a lot but in vain, I think I am missing out some calculation. Can you please guide me in this calculation ??? I am attaching the excel sheet of BANKINDIA and calcualtions I tried.

Thanks in advance and waiting anxiously for your reply.

Thanks and Regards

Avinash Raste

 

[CreditViolet]

Maybe relevant to the thread

 

[Saint]

Dear Saint,

I am a newbee in this field. And I try to learn the TA with a clear uderstanding of indicators. I am trying to calculate the Bollinger Band in excel, but somehow the created bands are mirror images of each other and not like one I've seen in BSE website or in TA Softwares like F Chart. I tried a lot but in vain, I think I am missing out some calculation. Can you please guide me in this calculation ??? I am attaching the excel sheet of BANKINDIA and calcualtions I tried.

Thanks in advance and waiting anxiously for your reply.

Thanks and Regards

Avinash Raste

Would not be able to help as all the above play no role in the way I trade.........best to ask someone who does,probably put it out there on the Technical Analysis forum.

All the best!
Saint

 

[Saint]

Maybe relevant to the thread

Very relevant.....as always,great stuff!

Probably would be a good idea to break up each point and explain things further,for the newcomer........maybe tomorrow evening.

Saint

 

[Saint]

Hello Saint,
I read ur posts with great interest just because they are so informative for a novice like me. I have fw questions on the market scenario. I would be greatly benefitted if I can get ur replies to these:

1)are we in a bear market based upon yesterds fall?
2)if yes, should I try to exit out of all my positions (in cash market)?


Thanks,
Anil

Hi Anil,

Lots of questions.....Are you an intermediate term trader,a swing trader,a short termtrader......If so,you were out a long while ago!

If you were trading the long term charts,then you would still be holding on after taking profits,waiting to get back in.......

So far we are still in Bull Terrain,but only just....A break below the major trendline(see chart attached) and a close below that puts the Bull Market that started in 2003 in question......A break of pivots and we have a Primary Downtrend(Bear Market).

Is this the first move that is going to signify the start of a Bear Market?Maybe.Is this still a decline in an uptrend,and therefore a buyable opportunity?Maybe.

So should you be selling everything and sitting in cash.....Well,a good policy in long term trading was always to take off profits(I mean most!)from the table when a long term trend gets into an intermediate decline.And then to take off the last chunk once pivot analysis confirms a Bear Market.If trendlines don't crack,and charts signal the start of an intermediate uptrend,to go long big time.

If you don't have a clue as to what I am going on about........do take a look at the initial posts in this thread.

All the best!
Saint

 

[rajaram.dilipkumar]

Hi Anil,

Lots of questions.....Are you an intermediate term trader,a swing trader,a short termtrader......If so,you were out a long while ago!

If you were trading the long term charts,then you would still be holding on after taking profits,waiting to get back in.......

So far we are still in Bull Terrain,but only just....A break below the major trendline(see chart attached) and a close below that puts the Bull Market that started in 2003 in question......A break of pivots and we have a Primary Downtrend(Bear Market).

Is this the first move that is going to signify the start of a Bear Market?Maybe.Is this still a decline in an uptrend,and therefore a buyable opportunity?Maybe.

So should you be selling everything and sitting in cash.....Well,a good policy in long term trading was always to take off profits(I mean most!)from the table when a long term trend gets into an intermediate decline.And then to take off the last chunk once pivot analysis confirms a Bear Market.If trendlines don't crack,and charts signal the start of an intermediate uptrend,to go long big time.

If you don't have a clue as to what I am going on about........do take a look at the initial posts in this thread.

All the best!
Saint

saint,

thanks for the charts ...